Game-by-game odds for the Atlanta Braves playoff series versus the Cardinals
A set of 2019 postseason odds have been released. Let’s see what the Atlanta Braves odds are to win its upcoming National League Division Series.
For all you Atlanta Braves fans that love the numbers-side of Major League Baseball, today I give you several different projections for the Braves’ upcoming NLDS matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals — starting with Game 1 on Thursday at 5:02 p.m. (CNT).
The internet land of advanced stats, tables and graphs — FanGraphs — has just recently added a fantastic feature to its toolbox — MLB Playoff Probabilities.
With this brand spankin’ new live playoff odds page at FG, we can now look at game-by-game odds as well as probable starters and different series’ outcomes, depending on various scenarios within each round of the postseason.
On Tuesday it was made official that the Atlanta Braves will be going with lefty Dallas Keuchel and the Cardinals, righty Miles Mikolas, for Game 1 of the NLDS (though we already knew as much about the former).
*Note: Games 4 and 5 may not be necessary, so obviously FanGraphs is making an ‘educated guess’ regarding those games’ probables.
|1||Dallas Keuchel||Miles Mikolas|
|2||Mike Foltynewicz||Jack Flaherty|
|3||Mike Soroka||Adam Wainwright|
|4||Max Fried||Dakota Hudson|
|5||Mike Soroka||Jack Flaherty|
Here are FanGraphs’ win probability odds for each game of the NLDS, including Games 4 and 5, using the starters they picked above (also, if needed).
|Game||Home/Road||Braves’ odds (%)|
The odds above seem appropriate, at least given the probable starting pitching matchups listed.
Soroka is the Braves’ best starting pitcher, who is tasked with facing the Cards’ second or third-best starter (Wainwright), hence the highest odds of winning for the Braves in Game 3 (plus Soroka has been almost perfect on the road).
Game 4 is the only matchup in which the Atlanta Braves are underdogs, though at 49.9%… we’re still talking about basically a flip of a coin here.
I do find it interesting that FanGraphs illustrates essentially the same amount of confidence in both Folty and Keuchel when either is matched up with the Cards’ ace, Jack Flaherty (Games 2 and 5, respectively). Perhaps a little home field advantage has been applied.
Another cool aspect of this new tool is the Series Outcome Projections. This is where we can see the various odds given by FanGraphs, depending on the different outcomes possible within the series.
|Braves win in 3||15.5% probability|
|Braves win in 4||20.0% probability|
|Braves win in 5||19.7 probability|
|Braves total||55.2% probability|
|Cardinals win in 3||9.9% probability|
|Cardinals win in 4||17.3% probability|
|Cardinals win in 5||17.6% probability|
|Cardinals total||44.8% probability|
And here’s where you get the total series’ odds: the Atlanta Braves are favored at 55.2% odds of winning the NLDS. Those odds, as you see above, will surely change once Game 1 is in the books on Thursday night.
I halfway agree with FanGraphs here. I do agree that the Braves have the highest odds of winning the series in four games (20%), though I disagree that the team’s second-highest odds should be with them winning in five tries (19.7%) — my second choice is the Braves win in three games.
Obviously, these are projections and shouldn’t be taken out of context. This is just an interesting and fun way to see how one portion of the industry, using its given tools and projection systems, feels about the Atlanta Braves.
The site has released odds for all Division Series and will update each round of the playoffs as each game is played. For more information regarding how FanGraphs compiles its MLB Postseason Odds, click here.
What do you think? Let us know if you agree with FanGraphs’ odds.