A week ago it didn’t seem plausible. Now – even with just 2 days left – it’s still at least possible that the Brew Crew could be a first round Atlanta Braves opponent.
For the better part of 3 weeks, it has appeared that the Atlanta Braves (97-63) would once again see the St. Louis Cardinals (90-70) in the first playoff round… a scenario in which there have been few good experiences in history.
Last night, though, the Brewers (89-71) had a golden opportunity to get level with the leaders of the NL Central, but fell to the Rockies in Denver.
In truth, it’s hard to fault the Brewers for anything right now: just to be in this position has required winning at a torrid pace.
In fact, starting on August 31st, they are 21-5… most of that coming without the services of Christian Yelich, the reigning league MVP.
At this point, though, here’s what would have to happen for them to flip places with the Cardinals… there are 3 scenarios:
- Brewers win twice in Denver, Cardinals lose twice at home to the Cubs.
- Brewers win twice, Cardinals lose once to the Cubs, Brewers travel to St. Louis and beat them in ‘Game 163’.
- Brewers win once, Cardinals lose twice, Brewers travel to St. Louis and beat them in ‘Game 163’.
Chances of one of these things happening? Baseball-Reference.com thinks 16.8%. Fangraphs.com guesses 22.6%. BaseballProspectus.com is the most bearish at 7.7%.
But the Jayson Stark nightmare traveling scenario is still alive and well for Milwaukee:
- Sunday game in Denver (Mountain time zone)
- Monday game in St. Louis (Central time zone)
- (if they lose) Tuesday Wild Card game in Washington (Eastern TZ)
- (if they win) Thursday NLDS in Los Angeles (Pacific TZ)
But just in case they overcome St. Louis… here’s the season history, plus keys to beating Milwaukee in a 5 game series.