Enjoy him while you can, for Josh Donaldson may be slugging his way out of the price range of the 2020 Atlanta Braves.
Over the weekend, Josh Donaldson helped the Atlanta Braves thrash the Mets (as has been his practice this year) and in the process passed up Freddie Freeman in fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR).
He’s now sitting at 4.0 with Freeman at 3.8. If you prefer baseball-reference’s numbers, this milestone had already been met: Donaldson has a 4.5 as compared to “just” 3.9 for Freeman.
We knew he had it in him… it just wasn’t clear at the early part of the season that it was going to come out like this.
It wasn’t like Donaldson was bad early on – he was credited with a 132 Runs-Created (wRC+) score at the end of April – but production slowed a bit in May and June.
In those following months, the 33-year-old recorded fairly pedestrian 99 and 114 wRC+ numbers, and the whispers were out there: ‘he’s not worth the contract’ or ‘he’s probably still not healthy’ and the like.
The FOX broadcast team likes to point to the June 10 game where Pirates starter Joe Musgrove hit (barely) Donaldson with a 1st inning pitch and after some mutual staring, things got more animated.
When the smoke cleared, both players and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle were tossed. The Braves went on to win that game handily, but also eked out the next 3 in that series.
That date turns out to be accurate. Before June 10, Donaldson…
- Had homered once over his prior 19 games
- Had knocked in only 4 runs (that lone homer got 3 of those)
- Had just 13 hits in those same prior 19 games (69 Abs)
After that? 7 homers in his next 12 games and a pile of hits. Overall…
- Before June 10: .234 average, 8 homers, 25 RBI
- After June 10: .283 average, 24 homers, 51 RBI
Oh, and that ‘pedestrian’ Runs Created stat? He’s in the 160’s since July started. That means that since Summer began, he’s now on par with the 3 players who have been leading all of baseball for the year… Trout/Yelich/Bellinger. The next pair on that leaderboard happen to be third basemen: Alex Bregman and Anthony Rendon.
Okay, maybe he’s not quite at the level of Mike Trout (181), but that’s because he’s the gold standard by which All Things Baseball are measured.
Regardless, suddenly Donaldson has become a force to be reckoned with. And that’s kind of the problem… for next season.
The Progression
For many fans, there’s been a cycle of reckoning that has been navigated since Donaldson was signed at the end of November:
- (Nov) ‘You gave him $23 million???’
- (Dec) What about Riley?
- (May) He’s terrible!
- (June) He’s adequate, I guess.
- (July) Huh… that’s pretty good.
- (Now) Why doesn’t Alex Anthopoulos extend him already?!
At this point, Donaldson is clearly having fun with this club, but the ball is now firmly in his court regardless where he plays next season.
Donaldson will be the second most coveted 3rd baseman on the market (to Rendon, who’s 4 years his junior), which will still place him as one of the top free agents in the coming Winter market.
Like Rendon, he also won’t have any shortage of possible suitors:
- The Nationals – if Rendon goes elsewhere
- The Mets – because Todd Frazier will be a free agent
- The Phillies – because Maikel Franco
- The Braves – because the team is clearly better with him
Yeah, that’s just the NL East. It’s fair to expect that there’s easily another 5-10 clubs that would also be interested in his services… thus even despite his age (34 next season) and the New Thinking about (not) paying players in their 30’s, Donaldson will still have solid offers to consider.
How Much?
That part is still yet to be determined, of course, but earlier in the year, I was personally guessing that it might require a minimum of 2 years and $50 million.
Now? That floor is rising… perhaps to 3 years and $71 million.
Would the Atlanta Braves entertain such numbers? In terms of the year-to-year cost, they certainly could afford it: it’s “only” $4 million above the level of his current contract. The related question, of course, it about what else they will be trying to do this off-season.
But it’s the 3 years that might be the issue… and there’s liable to be somebody who offers him that ‘extra’ year (even if it’s a 4th year).
Philadelphia might be that team… if he’d be willing to enter that clubhouse. They’re already ‘pot committed’ and clearly (a) have the funds, and (b) have an obvious need at that position.
Honestly? It probably comes down to his own call. He’s already made $80 million during his career without the benefit of a long-term contract. At this point, he might choose to find his best chance for a ring… assuming it doesn’t happen this year.
Braves fans won’t want to go through the next stage of reckoning… the loss of another highly-productive third baseman this decade… but Donaldson has progressed from a state of needing to prove himself to the enviable position of needing to decide for himself where he wants to finish his career.