It appears they’re over the hump now, but for most of the 2019 season, the Atlanta Braves bullpen has been lacking.
The Atlanta Braves have gotten horrible production from their bullpen this season.
Not only is that a bit negative, that’s also a rather “no duh” statement, right? I don’t think I’ve discovered anything new here. But that’s OK, we already know the Atlanta Braves bullpen has struggled mightily in 2019 (though they’ve been much better of late).
But just how bad?
Well, on Thursday Craig Edwards posted a piece on FanGraphs illustrating how bullpens in the majors have performed this season. This is his second article regarding bullpens in two days, and both have been pretty eye-opening.
In his piece, titled The Best Bullpens in Baseball (how fitting!), Edwards shares several bar graphs depicting the state of the league when it comes to teams’ bullpens, more specifically, how certain teams’ bullpens have fared depending on certain leverages (high, medium or low).
In terms of leverage, the Atlanta Braves have been middle-of-the-road, meaning: they haven’t performed too horribly in high-leverage, close-game type situations, but also haven’t done too well. The same goes for middle and low-leverage flavors.
The Braves’ bullpen rank 20th in high/medium leverage situations, when using FIP, and they rank 18th in low leverage situations, also using FIP.
But what stands out is Edwards’ graph illustrating each team’s bullpen WAR. The Braves rank third from last in that depressing-looking graph, in front of the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins — ouch.
Like I said, this isn’t groundbreaking stuff here. We all knew it was bad. Thankfully, GM Alex Anthopoulos addressed this when he acquired Chris Martin, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene last month. It’s OK to laugh about it now, right? Probably not.
The results
Through August 20, the Atlanta Braves bullpen has been worth collectively … wait for it … minus-0.7 fWAR. If you’re not familiar with WAR (wins-above-replacement), let me just tell you … that’s really bad. The fact that the Braves are grouped with the Orioles and Marlins says enough.
To add a little more perspective, the No. 15 team in baseball is the Texas Rangers, with 2.4 fWAR (though, they are tied with the Angels and Reds).
So in terms of WAR, what does the Atlanta Braves bullpen look like?
Luke Jackson • 0.8 fWAR
He’s been surprisingly good this season, even holding down the closers’ role for awhile. Jackson made some changes this season, resulting in 12.10 K/9 (second-highest among active Braves relievers) and a 3.57 ERA.
Mark Melancon • 0.3 fWAR
Melancon has been steady all season, running the highest K-rate of any Braves’ reliever (12.27 K/9) — even though he’s been with the team for almost a month — and working as the current closer. He’ll continue to get important innings for the rest of the season.
Jacob Webb • 0.2 fWAR
Webb is actually with Gwinnett right now, but before the three trade additions, Webb was a solid option out of the ‘pen. He’s currently 4-0 with a 1.39 ERA in 32.1 innings-pitched (36 appearances) with the Braves.
Chris Martin • 0.1 fWAR
The 33-year-old has been on-and-off with the Braves, but he has still been a big-time strikeout guy, with 11.74 K/9. His 1.17 BB/9 is currently the lowest walk-rate among active Braves relievers.
Sean Newcomb • 0.1 fWAR
Sometimes Newcomb’s unhittable and sometimes he seems to make things worse. Although, overall you have to like what he’s done as a starter-turned-reliever this season. Newcomb has an overachieving 3.32 ERA in 40.2 innings-pitched out of the bullpen this season (4.34 FIP).
Here are the zero and negative WAR guys in the bullpen, the underachievers this season that has made the Atlanta Braves bullpen rank as the third-worst group in baseball (that was kind of harsh).
I’m limiting this to pitchers with at least 6 innings, in order to skip over position-player appearances and just plain small-samples that don’t really matter:
- Jeremy Walker (6.1 IP) 0.0 fWAR
- Grant Dayton (8.1 IP) 0.0 fWAR
- Shane Greene (8.1 IP) 0.0 fWAR
- A.J. Minter (27.1 IP) 0.0 fWAR
- Anthony Swarzak (30 IP) -0.1 fWAR
- Josh Tomlin (66 IP) -0.1 fWAR (no way!?)
- Touki Toussaint (40.1 IP) -0.1 fWAR
- Jerry Blevins (25.1 IP) -0.2 fWAR
- Chad Sobotka (26 IP) -0.2 fWAR
- Dan Winkler (21.2 IP) -0.3 fWAR
- Wes Parsons (15.1 IP) -0.3 fWAR
- Shane Carle (9.1 IP) -0.4 fWAR
I’m not sure if you notice, but there’s a lot more zeroes and negatives than positives. Who woulda thought?
The real phenomenon is the fact that the Atlanta Braves have maintained a first-place standing in the NL East for much of the season, despite the fact that they’ve been outnumbered 12-5 by poor relievers.
Put another way: 70.5% of the Braves’ relief core has posted replacement-level numbers this season.
That just goes to show how well this team has hit the ball, plus how well the starting pitching has been. Fortunately, over the last week or so, the Atlanta Braves bullpen has stepped it up tremendously, which has led to the team winning 8 out of their last 10.
Ain’t it fun when relievers aren’t blowing leads?
So I’ll end this piece with another “no-duh” statement: Here’s to another month of a strong Braves’ bullpen!