Yesterday we looked at the remaining Atlanta Braves schedule. Comparatively speaking, their NL East rivals have an uphill battle on their hands.
The Atlanta Braves remaining schedule breakdown is one that is generally favorable to the team.
Indeed, baseball-reference.com suggests that the Braves should average the equivalent of a half-run advantage over its foes when each game starts… and this would have included Wednesday’s game that resulted in a win and a road series win over a 1st place team.
But what about those chasing Atlanta? What of the challenges that they will face down the stretch? Some are better off than others, but none are in the position of Atlanta.
The Aggregate Numbers
I’ll go ahead and offer the punchline first… then we’ll explain the narrative.
Using the same baseball-reference.com strength-of-remaining-schedule numbers, here’s the run advantages:
- Washington +0.3 runs
- Philadelphia -0.1 runs (yes, that’s a negative number)
- New York Mets +0.1 runs
In the entire National League, the Dodgers are in the best position (+1.7) followed by the Cubs and Diamondbacks (+0.8). The Braves and Reds are next with +0.5.
So in the NL East, it’s going to be toughest for the Phillies, then the Mets, and finally the Nationals.
As things stand now, the Nationals (61-53) are 6 games behind Atlanta (68-48). So in the remaining 46 games, if the Braves manage only a 23-23 record and finish at 91-71, the Nationals would need to go a minimum of 30-18 in their 48 remaining games to win the division*.
* – this would give Washington a chance to win the division while (likely) hosting a 163rd game vs. Atlanta.
The other clubs would clearly have to do even better than that. Let’s check the details… with a bit of a surprise at the end.
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