Atlanta Braves: Two top starting pitchers that might be available
The trade deadline is now just a week and a half away and some new names might be surfacing in the Atlanta Braves pursuit of starting pitching.
We have heard the names over and over that have been attached to the Atlanta Braves: Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman, Matthew Boyd, and to a lesser degree, Trevor Bauer and Zack Wheeler.
But with the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies scuffling recently (the Reds have lost six-of-eight, while the Rockies have lost 11-of-13), perhaps two new names will be brought into the starting pitcher trade discussion.
In fact, earlier in the week, MLB writer Jon Morosi wrote a piece on the Reds’ Luis Castillo and the approach Cincinnati could take in the coming days.
Morosi said the Reds could ask for a ridiculous price on the budding star and see if any general manager bites. They could also just hang on to Castillo and hope to agree to a contract extension.
Jon Gray has not been publicly mentioned as a guy that could be moved, but one would think with the Rockies four games back in the wild card and six teams above them, they might look to capitalize on Gray’s value now.
The common opinion is the Atlanta Braves top prospects Cristian Pache, Ian Anderson, and Drew Waters are close to untouchable, but that would not be the case with Castillo and Gray, who will command multiple top prospect hauls.
Let’s take a look as to how realistic it is for the Atlanta Braves to pursue either pitcher and whether it makes sense to move the multiple young pieces it would take to acquire Castillo or Gray.
Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo has had a coming out party this year for the Reds, as the first-time all-star is currently 9-3 with a 2.41 ERA.
He has 134 strikeouts to 56 walks, a 1.116 WHIP, an ERA plus of 191, and a WAR of 3.7.
Over his last eight starts, Castillo has allowed opponents to hit just .178, while allowing only 30 hits in over 47 innings.
In other words, the guy is a stud; a legitimate ace that would make a scary trio of him, Dallas Keuchel, and Mike Soroka.
Castillo will be a free agent in 2024, so he has four years of control after this season.
The price for Castillo will be insanely high, as it should be, and there are only a handful of organizations that could afford him, but the Braves are certainly one.
According to Baseball Trade Values, Castillo carries a value of 62.3. For comparison, Soroka has a value of 56.3.
Two of the Braves top five prospects would have to be included in any prospective deal.
According to Fangraphs The Board!, those top five prospects are Pache, Waters, Anderson, Kyle Wright, and William Contreras.
Pache has a FV of 60, while Waters, Anderson, and Wright have FV’s of 55.
Going strictly by values, a trade would theoretically look like this:
It would seem likely that an overpay would be necessary in a trade for a controllable ace like Castillo, so I doubt the package above would be enough.
Jon Gray
Before the 2016 season, Jon Gray was the 37th best prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America.
In his first full year in the bigs in 2017, Gray went 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 starts.
While last season was a regression, Gray has emerged this season as a top of the rotation starter for the Rockies.
He is 9-7 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, 124 strikeouts to 45 walks, an ERA plus of 130, and a WAR of 3.3
Since June 1st, Gray has nine starts and carries a 5-2 record with a 2.92 ERA during that span.
The Rockies have just one prospect listed on The Board!, so it might make sense to add to their prospect pool by trading Gray.
Gray’s value on Baseball Trade Value is 51.2, so while it might not take as much as it would to acquire Castillo, there would still be multiple top 10 pieces going to Colorado.
So here it is:
Parting with Ian Anderson would be difficult, but he would certainly have to be included in a deal for Gray.
Conclusion
There is no doubt either one of these starters would greatly impact the rotation and further enhance the Atlanta Braves chances to win a championship.
There is a fine line between going for it with trades and valuing your most elite prospects. It is oftentimes difficult to determine where that line is.
But if it meant acquiring Castillo or Gray, all but Pache would be in the mix for me.
Next. 4 bargain relief pitchers. dark
Remember, parades are more fun than prospects.