Analyzing Atlanta Braves rookie Austin Riley’s first half

ByJosh Mathews|
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 12: Austin Riley #27 of the Atlanta Braves rounds second base after hitting a game-tying solo homer in the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at SunTrust Park on June 12, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 12: Austin Riley #27 of the Atlanta Braves rounds second base after hitting a game-tying solo homer in the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at SunTrust Park on June 12, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MAY 23: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates with Austin Riley #27 after defeating the San Francisco Giants in 13 innings at Oracle Park on May 23, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MAY 23: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates with Austin Riley #27 after defeating the San Francisco Giants in 13 innings at Oracle Park on May 23, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)

What about those strikeouts?

Some common fan takes I’ve seen around social media include:  ‘Riley strikes out all the time’ or ‘Riley strikes out way more than he used to.’

These takes are shortsighted. Looking at Riley’s strikeout numbers, they have steadily increased, at almost exactly the same rate. In his first 25 games, he struck out 36 times. In his last 24 games, he struck out 33 times, for a total of 69 strikeouts in 187 at-bats. Riley strikes out about 37% of the time.

Let’s compare that to two other power guys who both had success.

Jim Thome, a Hall of Famer, hit 612 home runs and struck out 2,548 times, or 30.2% of his at-bats. His career batting average was .276.

Adam Dunn, who hit 426 career home runs and struck out 2,379 times, or 34.5% of his at-bats. His career batting average was .236.

Let’s be clear, Riley is striking out too much, but that’s not the root of the problem here. He’s a power hitter, and no one should have expected anything a lot different.

What needs to change?

Austin Riley has only drawn 10 walks. That’s one walk every 19.7 plate appearances. Three of those walks have been intentional, so taking those away, Riley has only ‘naturally’ drawn a walk once every 28.1 plate appearances.

It’s THAT simple.

By comparison, over his career, Jim Thome drew a walk every 5.9 plate appearances. Adam Dunn actually walked more on average, getting a base on balls every 6.3 plate appearances. As a result, they got more pitches to hit, and the same will happen for Riley.

Perhaps the best comparison (and it’s Atlanta Braves-related, too) is Jeff Francoeur.

In 2004, he only walked eleven times through his first 274 plate appearances, with three of those being intentional. That’s a ‘natural’ walk every 24.9 trips to the dish. Over his career, Francoeur only improved slightly, averaging one walk every 19.9 plate appearances over his career.

All of that feeds into OBP, of course.

  • Thome (career) .402
  • Dunn (career) .364
  • Francouer (career) .303
  • Riley (2019) .312

I love Jeff Francoeur. He’s a great guy if you’ve ever met him, outside of his sometimes weird camera stare downs, he’s great in the booth and he was a pretty good baseball player. But ultimately, not getting on base cost Francoeur playing time, and therefore, results.

What will happen?

It’s all up to Austin Riley.

The Atlanta Braves have endless resources at their disposal to demonstrate to Riley where he’s going wrong. There’s video, statistics, sabermetrics and the watchful eyes of Kevin Seitzer and Jose Castro, who have guided the 2019 Atlanta Braves to what could be their best offensive season ever.

It’s not going to happen overnight, but with Ender Inciarte’s return looming, some improvement out of the gate after the All-Star break would help certainly help Riley’s cause.

Austin Riley is going to get it together. He is, without a doubt, a top talent. Guys just don’t come in and hit like he has and pick up a new position and hit the way he did without top shelf skills.

To make a formal prediction, Riley will finish the season batting around .270 with 29 home runs and 88 RBI. At season’s end, he’ll have 55 walks.

Here’s to hoping that Austin Riley finishes as one of the Atlanta Braves offensive leaders when they win their last game of the season.