After years of touting one of the best and deepest farm systems in baseball because of their starting pitching, the Atlanta Braves are currently struggling to put together a 5-man rotation.
For a while now we have dreamed of the day when all these talented pitchers in the Atlanta Braves system would take over the rotation.
Now that we are ready to contend, it’s the offensive prospects who are shining, while the starting pitching lags behind.
Just three years ago we thought the Atlanta Braves would have one of the best, young starting rotations in the league, and while it’s still possible, so far that hasn’t panned out.
That’s why we have to be careful when overvaluing prospects, especially pitchers. It’s great that the Atlanta Braves stockpiled them, because the numbers tell us that only a few will ever actually grow into frontline starters.
Looking back at the Atlanta Braves farm system before the 2016 season, when the Braves started ranking in the top five of all farm systems in baseball regularly, we could envision a future rotation of Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, and Mike Soroka.
And it’s still possible — I’m not ready to give up on any of those guys.
But as things stand today, only Soroka looks like a sure thing long term in the Atlanta Braves rotation.
Looking at the Braves top 10 prospects entering the 2016 season, according to Baseball Prospectus, sevens of those 10 were starting pitchers.
The hitters in that group were Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley. All three are huge contributors in the lineup.
Outside of the five I mentioned above, the other two names on that list were Aaron Blair and Lucas Sims. Both are no longer with the Braves organization.
Newcomb was ranked two on that list and has shown flashes of being a number two or three starter at times, but still struggles with command issues.
He’s currently become a pretty nice weapon out of the bullpen, but that would be somewhat of a letdown considering what we gave up for him and what was expected of him.
Allard is still just 21-years-old and is starting to regain some his value as a prospect after 8 disappointing innings in the big leagues, but even still, he appears to be a middle of the rotation starter.
Much like Newcomb, Touki has shown flashes as a starter but not consistently enough. He’s now also become a big part of the bullpen.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Touki get another shot in the rotation this season.
Fried started the season looking like a top of the rotation starter but has come back down to Earth. I think he can be a part of the Atlanta Braves rotation for a while, but as more of a back of the rotation guy.
Soroka is the only one who has ace potential at this point. The rest appear to be middle of the rotation guys.
Of that group, only Soroka and Fried are a constant part of the starting rotation right now.
Two of seven is not a great percentage. And that’s why the Atlanta Braves are scrambling to find starting pitching this season.
Now we look to the future again with what could be. We feel pretty good about Mike at one and Fried at three or four.
Mike Foltynewicz is under control for two more seasons, so unless he turns things around soon, it’s hard to imagine him being part of the future rotation.
Newcomb and Touki will likely get another chance to stick in the starting rotation. And Allard could get another chance as well, but I’m betting he gets traded this summer.
Looking at the next wave, you already have guys like Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Luiz Gohara who made their debuts and couldn’t stick in the Atlanta Braves rotation.
Again, not giving up on anyone, just pointing out that the success rate for these coming up and earning a spot right away is not good.
Behind them, you have guys like Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller who are already being tabbed as the next big thing.
I guess my point is, there is a reason Alex Anthopoulos is hesitant to move any of these pitching prospects.
It’s very hard to project how these guys will respond to the Major Leagues. The success rate for hitters is much better.
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But you have to keep bringing in waves of pitching talent in hopes that one or two of them become a top of the rotation pitcher.
Hopefully, in this next wave, we get another top of the rotation guy to pair with Soroka, and then you can fill in the last three spots with those middle of the rotation guys.
Ideally, that future rotation looks something like this:
- Soroka
- Anderson
- Wright
- Fried
- Muller
I’m sure we were drawing up these same possible rotations back in 2016. But things change, and I’m sure it will not work out this way in a couple of years.
The future is still very bright for the Atlanta Braves pitching staff, but I think we’re finding that we need to be more patient with these guys.