When Atlanta Braves reliever Luke Jackson ascended to the closer job and had good results, some fans had one phrase for him.
“I’m sorry, Luke Jackson.”
The word play off Atlanta-based rap duo Outkast’s smash hit single ‘Ms. Jackson’ was used as an apology by Atlanta Braves fans to the relief pitcher after users of social media such as Reddit and Twitter unleashed verbal attacks on him and at him after a poor pitching performance on Opening Day vs. the Philadelphia Phillies… and just about every other time he’s messed up.
Jackson, by all accounts, has been a revelation. Especially for a guy that’s been designated for assignment twice, was labeled a first-round draft pick bust, and someone who got the job virtually by process of elimination.
I don’t think many predicted A.J. Minter’s meltdown, but you may have predicted the oft-injured Arodys Vizcaino would eventually be hurt again.
Jackson has posted a 3-2 record and a 3.09 earned run average over 31 games pitched. He has limited walks and struck out 49 betters over 35 innings. The yield has been 10 saves, but also six blown saves.
As a team, the Atlanta Braves have blown 13 saves.
Only four teams are worse: Boston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Oakland, and the New York Mets.
But, before you get up in arms, consider this — the league average for blown saves in the National League is 10, and in the American League, eight.
Now, as fans, many ask the question — when will Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker say enough is enough and hand over the job to someone else?
It appears we dodged disaster in the minefield that is free agency.
Looking to last year’s market, less Craig Kimbrel, who was signed by the Cubs for $45 million and is currently in ‘Spring Training’ with Triple-A Iowa, the results from spending money on bullpen pieces has been mostly average to downright miserable.
2019 Free Agent relievers, sorted by ERA through 6-18-19, with salaries
- Adam Ottavino 1.74 ERA, 31 IP, 40K, 20BB, $27 million
- Greg Holland 1.99 ERA, 22.2 IP, 29K, 10BB, $3.25 million
- Shawn Kelley 2.55 ERA, 24.2 IP, 20K, 5BB, $2.75 million
- Zach Britton 2.76 ERA, 29.1 IP, 25K 13BB, $39 million
- Jesse Chavez 3.35 ERA, 40.1IP, 38K, 15BB, $8 million
- Andrew Miller 3.86 ERA, 23.1IP, 34K, 11BB, $25 million
- Jake Diekman 4.50 ERA, 30IP, 45K, 17BB, $2.75 million
- Justin Wilson 4.82 ERA 9.1 IP, 9K, 4BB, $10 million
- Joakim Soria 5.35 ERA, 33.2 IP, 34K, 10BB, $15 million
- Cody Allen 6.26 ERA, 23 IP, 29K, 20BB, $8.5 million
- Brad Brach 6.33 ERA, 27 IP, 29K, 22BB, $3 million
- Kelvin Herrera 6.58 ERA, 26IP, 24K, 11BB, $18 million
- Joe Kelly 7.25 ERA, 22.1 IP, 27K, 12BB, $25 million
- Jeurys Familia 7.81 ERA 27.2 IP, 28K, 21BB, $30 million
- Bud Norris hasn’t pitched a big-league game, $3 million
Now, see this:
- Luke Jackson 3.09 ERA, 35IP, 49K, 9BB
Jackson would rank 5th of 15 pitchers in ERA, 1st in strikeouts, and 3rd in fewest walks.
WAIT A SECOND.
Could our general manager and Liberty Media have made a good decision in NOT spending a ton of money on relief pitching? There’s no way. Stop playing with me, man.
Forget sabermetrics, forget scouting, let’s put it all up to dumb luck. Four of 15 pitchers listed have an ERA less than three.
That means, if at random we had signed one of the pitchers listed above, we had a 28.5% chance of picking one of the good relievers.
Two of the four just happened to be two of the most expensive ones (Britton and Ottavino) and both were signed by the same team, the New York Yankees.
The Yankees got a better bullpen by dumb luck. How would it even be possible to predict these things? I’m sure the Angels planned to release Cody Allen in June when they signed him, right?
It’s easy to say in hindsight, “Oh, we should have signed Greg Holland, and Shawn Kelley! They were both cheap and they are pitching well!”
Remember Kelley? Oh yeah, this guy from the Nats bullpen last year.
So, if not Luke Jackson, who?
Let’s look at internal options. Honestly, I think it comes down to two: Anthony Swarzak and A.J. Minter.
Why Swarzak?
Swarzak is a veteran that we traded Arodys Vizcaino and Jesse Biddle for. Vizcaino is out for the season and a free agent at year’s end, and Biddle is toiling away in the Seattle bullpen with an ERA of 9.00 since the trade.
Since his acquisition, Swarzak has crushed it, making 13 appearances with a 0.66 ERA to go with 16 strikeouts and six walks. His WHIP sits at a cool 0.80 and opposing batters have mustered just a .109 average against him.
Swarzak brings something to the table that virtually no one else in our bullpen (outside of Josh Tomlin) really does — veteran experience. Performance wise, Tomlin plays to more of a long reliever, and an average one at that.
A.J. Minter was a curious case last year when he seemed to lose the fire he had during the last month of the season after tweaking something in his back. To start 2019, that fire hadn’t returned, and he got walloped and eventually sent to Gwinnett.
Since his return, he’s been fine, but isn’t ready for those high-pressure situations yet. Minter needs to get his feet wet again before being thrust in the ninth. Though, with his cutter and fastball that rides in the high 90s, it’s widely known he’s got the stuff for the job.
The trade market is certainly shaping up to be interesting. The Braves could target a number of pitchers.
To answer the question in the title “When will Atlanta Braves closer Luke Jackson lose his job?”
The answer is, he probably won’t in the short term. If he’s terrible, we could see Swarzak get a shot. Or after more game time, Minter could get another run.
But this Atlanta Braves fan believes we’ll make a move before the July 31 trade deadline to get a closer. Until then, enjoy the show.