Atlanta Braves already picked to win division by baseball-reference
You might be surprised, but there’s at least one statistical projection tool out there already touting the Atlanta Braves to repeat as the NL East champs.
At a 24-21 record, if the 2019 season ended today, the Atlanta Braves would fail to make the playoffs. They would be the first team out, losing in the Wild Card race to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
That’s not how baseball-reference.com thinks things are going to end up, though.
Among seemingly all things stats, BR maintains an ‘advanced standings’ page, complete with things like strength of team and playoff odds with best/worst scenarios.
At the heart of this is their ‘Simple Rating System‘, which gives an indication of their belief of each teams strength, measured in a number of runs better/worst than their competition.
The biggest thing you need to know from that is the current ratings of the Braves and Phillies:
- Atlanta: +0.3
- Philadelphia: -0.7
Yes – in layman’s terms, BR believes that the Atlanta Braves are now 1 full run better than the Phillies… all other things being equal. That’s almost shocking, especially given that both the Mets and Nationals are both rated at 0.0 (neutral).
The best NL clubs? No other surprises, really… well, maybe one:
- Dodgers: +1.9
- Cardinals: +0.9
- Brewers: +0.8
- Cubs: +0.7
- Rockies, DBacks tied: +.5
But that Phillies number… -0.7 is actually pretty bad: only the Giants (-0.8) and Marlins (-1.9) are worse in the Nationals League.
They are still up by 1.5 games as of today, but that team truly isn’t getting any love based on the stats.
Projected Standings
When you look at BR’s guesses through the end of the season, there is clearly still room for doubt/error/change, though the ranges are telling.
Here’s their view of the NL East by year’s end:
- Braves: 88-74
- Mets: 81-81
- Phillies: 79.5 – 82.5
- Nationals: 79-83
- Marlins: 54-108
That’s the average expected finishing records they came up with today. The ranges (with “90% confidence”) are:
- Braves: 80-97 wins
- Mets: 72-90 wins
- Phillies: 71-88 wins
- Nationals: 71-88 wins
- Marlins: 46-63 wins.
Sure – this allows for a lot of overlap: including the notion that Atlanta could plausibly finish as poorly as 4th place. That part really isn’t news.
What may be surprising is that their projections put this team finishing at no worse than a .500 record in almost any scenario.
Why Might they Think So?
We’ll know more by the beginning of July, but the Braves have a couple of tough bits in their schedule to navigate through. One of them is already in progress – it started with the West Coast road trip and roughly ends after the Brewers’ series.
The second is a run of PHL/NYM/WSH/CUBS/NYM/PHI running from June 10 to July 4. Beyond that… very few extended sequences involving tough opponents like that.
Obviously, any stretches involving the NL East teams are going to be important, but at this time, none of them are looking particularly formidable… and even splits in these games might play into the hands of the Braves.
In truth, the Atlanta Braves are trending up: starting pitching is improving, hitting is improving.
Only the bullpen is still shaky from night-to-night… and that still has the real possibility of getting fixed.
Next. Profiling a possible 1st rounder for Atlanta. dark
So take heart, Braves Country: there are people – or at least computers – that believe in this team. Be patient: the results are coming!