The Atlanta Braves wanted to see a couple of young pitchers emerge from their shells and step up this season. A couple of them have… but how long will they last?
The Atlanta Braves are getting exactly what they needed for the starting rotation, which is effectively a justification for not going outside the organization for starting support this Winter.
This has happened in the forms of Max Fried and Mike Soroka. Witness their starts to this season:
- FRIED: 4 starts, 1.38 ERA, 26 total innings, 1.04 WHIP, 18K, 7BB
- SOROKA: 2 starts, 1.69 ERA, 10.2 innings, 1.31 WHIP, 13K, 5BB
We’ve talked about these guys – Fried most recently – and yes, it’s still early… especially for the shoulder of Soroka, who has just now gotten back into game shape after a very abbreviated Spring Training time. But this declaration is based on the manner in which both are pitching and now simply the raw numbers.
Here’s the trick, though: while both may have stepped up, there’s a clock running, and it’s about innings.
FRIED
In his entire pro career, here are the innings per season Max has thrown (all levels/all leagues):
- 2012: 17.2
- 2013: 118.2
- 2014: 10.2
- 2015: 0
- 2016: 103.0
- 2017: 118.2
- 2018: 111.1
That’s it. Never more than 119 innings. Let’s check his new stablemate…
SOROKA
- 2015: 34.0
- 2016: 143.0
- 2017: 153.2
- 2018: 56.1
A bit more – clearly – but then Soroka is (a) still just 21.7 years old, and (b) the one of this pair who was shut down for most of 2018 and part of this year as the Braves carefully brought him back from a shoulder issue.
What’s the Limit?
The old rule of thumb was that teams liked to extend a pitcher by no more than roughly 30 innings year-over-year, but recently evidence suggests that this adage isn’t a good metric for anything.
Witness the results of a study on the subject as reported in ScienceDaily:
"A year-over-year increase of 30 innings pitched is often used as the limit for the number of innings a young starting pitcher is allowed to pitch in any given season. The researchers found no consistent correlation between injuries and the number of innings pitched or rate of yearly increase."
*This based on data likely collected between 2009-2014
The real trick is that while these pitchers are enjoying early success, it is coming via major league innings – which all of the increase in pressure and stress that comes with the territory… factors often cited as injury-forecasting factors.
"There is a growing belief that high-stress at-bats are more taxing than those in relatively low-pressure situations — and therefore that pitch counts from the two scenarios should not be treated the same."
That opinion came from 2010, but this theory has prevailed. It has been cited multiple time… here in 2015 and it continues to be mentioned in the context of pitching injuries to this day.
A Braves Dilemma
Truth is, we don’t know what the limits should be to protect these guys.
“Back in the Day”, these things weren’t a big concern…
- Tom Glavine: 1984-1985… 32.1 to 168.2 innings, then 225.1 in 1986.
- John Smoltz: 1986-1987… 96.0 to 146.0 innings, then 199.1 in 1988.
But that didn’t work out for everyone, either:
- Steve Avery: 1988-1989: 66.0 to 171.0 innings, then 181.1, 210, 233.3, 223 through 1993.
- His injuries struggles began in 1994; never exceeded 173 innings again.
- Kris Medlen: 2007-2008: 47.0 to 120.1 innings, slow increases through 2011, then 138 to 197 innings from 2012-13… and never more than 116 afterwards.
So what to do with Fried (he’s 25 years old) and Soroka?
Even if both continue to pitch at a high level, the Braves almost certainly cannot allow either player to go beyond 150 innings… and maybe not even quite that far.
That begs for some help that might be needed around late July/early August. Certainly there are options… a opportunity for others like Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, or Touki Toussaint to have a shot at redemption when a rest is needed.
But for a team that has the hope of contention in August, it’s most certainly a dilemma.
For now, this is a future problem… one that will be dealt with in mid-Summer. There’s a lot of baseball to be played between now and then, but it’s definitely one to watch.
It could also impact decision-making, come the July trade deadline.