Atlanta Braves’ Ronald Acuna: some success, but adjustment needed?

There are a lot of extremes when it comes to Ronald Acuna’s game, but where one adjustment was made last year, another… may not be necessary.

Those who believe that Atlanta Braves phenom Ronald Acuña Jr isn’t hitting are looking at enough data to see what’s really going on.

There’s a graphic that Fox Sports Florida used last night to question whether Acuna is in the throes of a ‘sophomore slump’.  Famously now, Acuna seemingly tried to silence that critique on the next pitch.

A well-located slider was deposited over the right-centerfield wall.

Let’s start with the odd stat lines through these first 7 games… embellished with info from Acuna’s pages on BrooksBaseball.net:

• Batting average:  .167 (4 for 24)
  • 2 singles; 2 homers
• Breaking balls (40 of them):  “exceptionally low likelihood to swing and miss” (15%)
• Whiff rate on fastballs (99 of them):  32%, “disastrously high likelihood to swing and miss”
  • However, his strikeout rate:  12.9% (26th lowest rate among 196 qualified hitters*)

  * 3rd lowest on team (Albies 6th overall at 6.5%; Freeman 12.5%)

  • Walk rate:  19.4% (OBP .333), “patient” to “exceptionally patient approach at the plate” on all pitch types
    • 13th highest walk rate in majors*

    * 2nd best on team (Freeman 25% – 5th in majors)

    It’s an odd combination, for sure, but that begs the question on how pitchers are choosing to throw to him thus far.  Let’s look at the breakdowns (via Brooks):

    148 total pitches:

    • 99 fastballs
    • 40 breaking pitches (sliders, curves)
    • 9 off-speed (changeups)

    Pitches by location:

    • 52 pitches lower outside strikezone quadrant or beyond
    • 13 more mid-height and at (or beyond) the outer edge of the strikezone

    While Acuna only has 4 hits thus far, three of these have come on pitches thrown at or below the strike zone.  Witness the Friday home run and its pitch location (an 86 mph slider):

    RONALD ACUÑA JR. JUST. KEEPS. FEASTING. ON. MARLINS. PITCHING.@Braves | #ChopOn pic.twitter.com/h4XbSfNq3n

    — Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) April 6, 2019

    You’re first reaction should be “if he’s hitting that pitch out of the park, then he must okay.”  And you’d be correct.  But it appears that there are some improvements and changes that are in progress.

    Where the Wild Whiffs Are

    The swing-and-miss profile suggests several things:

    • An uncanny recognition of the strike zone.
      • He simply isn’t chasing anything located out of the zone that’s above the knees:  1 whiff in 49 such pitches (9 swings).
      • No whiffs – or swings – on pitches too low and outside (of 19 pitches)
    • The weak spot for getting him to chase is low and middle or inside:
      • 27 pitches
      • 18 swings (most toward outside, just below the strike zone)
      • 4 whiffs in this area
      • The location for getting whiffs is at the top of the strike zone… starting high and inside and working to the low outside.
        • The sample sizes are still low, but he’s missed on 5 of 12 swings at the top of the strike zone.

        In short, pitchers are making a concerted effort to work the kid low and outside, and he knows this.  Nearly any pitch that’s out of the strike zone is being ignored, save for a few that are low and middle-in.

        This explains the high walk rate and it’s likely to continue as pitchers are scrupulously avoiding anything near the middle of the strike zone (only 44 pitches seen have been strikes).

        Fully 37%+ of all pitches Acuna has seen thus far are trying to paint the low outside corner and many of the rest are all around (outside) the zone.

        So this isn’t about a low batting average early on:  it’s about high selectivity.  If there’s a change or adjustment to be made at this point, it’s in these areas:

        • laying off all low pitches, not just those on the outer half… swing rates here are too high
        • work on hitting the high fastball

        Pitchers know Ronald Acuna is a dangerous hitter.  His batting average is irrelevant to that:  you can tell that the opposition believes this in how he’s being pitched.

        Don’t look for a big change soon:  he’s going to have to pick his spots.  For now, it’s okay that pitchers are walking him.  Besides, the best cure for that will be teammates getting on base in front of him so that pitchers have to throw strikes.