How Atlanta Braves position players stack up in the NL East: shortstop

#5 Miami Marlins

JT RIDDLE / MIGUEL ROJAS

Many of you are probably going… Who?  There will be a lot of that in Miami this year.

As of this moment, 27-year-old J.T. Riddle becomes the only starting ‘J.T.’ for this team, but when it comes to the Marlins in 2019, it’s not unlikely to expect some changes here and there.  And over there.  And even there.  Pretty much everywhere, in fact.

That does make this position hard to gauge since it’s certainly believable that 2 or 3 different players could see a lot of time here… or that one or them moves over to second base when and if Starlin Castro is traded elsewhere.

Either way, the candidates are Riddle, Miguel Rojas (30, who split the innings with Riddle in 2018) and possibly Yadiel Rivera… if he makes the roster at all.

Rojas is the better defender overall, though neither is that bad at the shortstop position (and Riddle does have better fielding numbers in multiple categories).

When healthy, the Marlins seem to believe that Riddle’s bat is better (his scouting numbers don’t bear this out.

Either way, this is going to be typical of the Marlins club this year:  honesty compels me to suggest that on most other clubs, either one might only have a utility role from the bench.

Either one is going to OPS around .700, hit about .250, and provide above average defense… which is want you normally need from a shortstop.

Of course, the Marlins need a whole lot more, and it’s just not coming from any position in particular this year.

I’ll cap my expectation from the Miami shortstops at 2.0 fWAR.  The full range of expectation is likely between 1.5 and 2.2.

Regardless, this is going to be part of a long year in South Florida… and they get a 5th ranking in the NL East.

#4 – New York Mets

AMED ROSARIO / JED LOWRIE

Baseball’s historians – via Wikipedia – tell us that the Shortstop position was more-or-less created somewhere around the years of 1849 and 1850 thanks to a player for the New York Knickerbockers named Doc Adams.

Adams’ idea was that he’d be a relay man for throws from the outfield while his fellow infielders covered their respective bases.  He started doing this between the infield and outfield areas, moving to the infield as the quality of the baseballs improved… allowing his outfielders to throw further.

So while the position was born out of play in New York City, that hasn’t necessarily translated to the best of play there in recent years.

Amed Rosario represents a clear improvement over the aged Jose Reyes – at least defensively – and that’s an area that the Mets have struggled with.

Rosario is just 23 and is still learning the major leagues, but Fangraphs is still very bullish about his long-term projection, giving him a ’65’ future value grade (for comparison purposes, Ronald Acuna gets a 70).

His low scouting marks come with hitting (still expected to improve) and game-showing power.  Other than that, he has the arm for the position and and enough skill as a defender.

Rosario hit well above .300 during his last 3 minor league stops before hitting New York in late 2017, but hasn’t yet broken out offensively at the major league level.

That’s where this projection gets tricky… trying to guess when that might happen.

Since his power has not yet really emerged, I have a hard time seeing him jump from the level of a slap hitter to one who’s driving the ball with authority on a consistent basis – though he clearly has the capability to do so (don’t throw him anything up above the zone – it may not come back).

In 154 games last season, Rosario hit .254 with 9 homers and 26 doubles (8 triples) for a slugging percentage of under .400 (.381) and OPS of .676.

A scouting report of 65 isn’t only about his defense, which is very good and sometimes close to spectacular.  However, it’s also an expectation of offensive prowess, and I would expect incremental improvements to that this season.

Plan J

The Mets do have a backup plan in the form of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie, who somehow managed to throw together 3.6 and 4.9 fWAR efforts over the past 2 seasons… better than anything else in his career.

If Rosario – and the whole Mets team at large – lays eggs offensively, then this is a spot where Lowrie could jump in.  He won’t be as good a defender, but he can drive in some runs.

My expectation is that he will not be called upon to do that except for giving Rosario rest days.  The kid will have a long leash to work with… and certainly the Met pitching staff would lobby for the better defense.

So that makes this projection a lot more about Rosario than Lowrie.

Fangraphs scored him with a 1.5 fWAR last season.  A 2.0-2.3 would be a solid improvement over that… and this bump could come from either side of the ball. 

Doing both would allow him to challenge for a higher level on this chart – and that’s certainly plausible – but for now he gets a…

4th place ranking in the NL East… but only barely, because…

#3 – Atlanta Braves

DANSBY SWANSON / JOHAN CAMARGO

There is a reason that I feel more confident in ranking the Braves 3rd on this list over the Mets and Rosario.  That reason stems from the fact that Atlanta has a stronger ‘safety net’ – and likely a shorter leash – than the Mets.

Dansby Swanson is still the shortstop incumbant.  The team knows he was a ‘gamer’ in 2018 and they know his hitting was certainly affected by a bad left wrist.

However, this is also a club that will need consistent production – even from the end of the order.  Thus if Swanson begins in lackluster fashion at the plate, Camargo could be called upon… perhaps as early as mid-to-late May.

[ Note:  Charlie Culberson could get a spot call at SS here and there, but if there’s a choice to be made at shortstop, it will not include him over the longhaul ]

Both of these players should be capable of throwing down a 3 WAR season… but if you had to pick one to reach that threshold, Camargo would seem to be the more likely choice.

Through diligent effort, Swanson has turned himself into a gold-glove-level defender.  That’s shouldn’t go unnoticed, particularly as many have noted Camargo’s defensive skills as perhaps some of the best in the organization.

The upshot is that Swanson – in between photo sessions – has put in the work, for it’s evident that he is not taking his starting role for granted.

Camargo has lost his spot to Josh Donaldson, so he may be trying to step up as well, and the shortstop position was the most overtly ‘available’ within his skillset.

So competition can be healthy… and it can be beneficial to the club.  It is on that basis that we are expecting better things from our Atlanta Braves shortstops in 2019.

It’s also because of this, that I expect a ‘floor’ production level of around 2.2 fWAR, with a ceiling in the 3.3 range. 

The Mets could challenge this, but for now, I am putting Atlanta 3rd in the NL East.

#2 – Philadelphia Phillies

JEAN SEGURA

Jean Segura will turn 29 years old on Sunday as a member of the Phillies after starting in the Angels organization, breaking into the majors with them shortly before moving to the Brewers.

Later on, he has reached Philadelphia after a couple of seasons in Seattle…with an Arizona year thrown in before that.

Normally you wouldn’t see players this well-traveled before age 30, but Segura has had something of an up-and-down career to explain some of that movement.

In 2013, playing for Milwaukee, he hit nearly .300 while flashing excellent defense and posting a 4.0 fWAR.

That didn’t last:  in 2014-15, his hitting dipped sharply (down 40-to-50 points) and his production shrunk to replacement level numbers.

The Brewers then saw him rebound… in Arizona.. with a sparkling .319/.368/.499 slash line and a 5.1 WAR season.  I expect they groused about that for a while.

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More recently, Seattle enjoyed something in the middle:  consecutive 3.0 and 3.8 years with steady, above-average defense.

So now he’s in Philadelphia, with the promise of not being required to hit well, given the rest of their lineup.  Unfortunately for the Braves and others, that’s a scenario in which a player can relax and ‘just play’… which could mean that he goes off again with something big.

I can’t see another 0.1 fWAR in him.  He’s too good for that… especially in this stadium and in this lineup.  If he gets homer-happy, that could hurt, but he’ll get his hits in otherwise.

Segura is well capable of 4.0+ WAR given his new situation, so I am going with a 4-4.5 projection… watch out for that, Braves… and a 2nd place ranking in the NL East.

#1 – Washington Nationals

TREA TURNER

This was pretty much a no-brainer – even with Segura in Philly.  Turner will turn 26 near mid-season and I actually hesitate to suggest that he’s posed for a breakout year simply because it’s only been injuries that have kept his production down ever since he hit the majors:

• 2016:  73 games, 3.3 fWAR
• 2017:  98 games, 2.8 fWAR
• 2018:  162 games, 4.8 fWAR

You could actually argue that 2016 was his best year since he was on pace for nearly a 7.0 season.

Here in 2019, he’s looking at the chance to run with abandon.  He was already stealing 40+ bases while being successful at a 5:1 ratio.  Without Bryce Harper in the lineup, that speed weapon may be fully unleashed and 70+ steals are certainly possible.

Turner takes enough walks (7-9%) and strikes out in a comfortable range (~18%) while hitting enough (.270-290) to get on base at a clip nearing .350.  He’s not a power guy, but he doesn’t have to be… he’ll have others to assist him.

Now finally back to stay at his native SS position in 2018, Turner’s defensive numbers jumped up.  These should be at least as good in 2019, which will certainly contribute to his WAR value.

Because he doesn’t launch baseballs with high regularity (though he did get 13 dingers in 2016), Turner is not going to light up the OPS rankings… but he doesn’t have to.  His singles will become doubles and doubles will become triples thanks to his legs.

In short:  this is one guy I hate to see at the plate… or more directly, I hate to see him on base.  He’s a splinter that you can’t dig out… the itch that you can’t reach to scratch.  He’s irritating to the opposition.

It’s also why I believe Turner will be posting something about a 5 fWAR this season.  5-6 is a reasonable range to pick for him… good enough for a 1st place ranking in this:  the NL East.

The Review

Shortstops in the NL East thus rank a follows:

• NATIONALS
• PHILLIES
• BRAVES
• METS
• MARLINS

You could actually foresee the team fWAR values being numbered 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0 for the 2019 season.  The tiers definitely suggest something like that.

Next time, we’ll finish up the infield at the hot corner.