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What does Bryce Harper’s deal mean for the Atlanta Braves?

By Benjamin Chase

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 26: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals reacts to striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 26, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Nationals 4-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 26: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals reacts to striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 26, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Nationals 4-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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The Atlanta Braves division rival just signed one of the biggest free agents on the 2018/2019 market. What does it mean for the Braves in 2019 and beyond?

The announcement of Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies sent Atlanta Braves fans into all sorts of directions on social media.

Why didn’t the Braves sign him at that average annual value (AAV)?

Can the Braves even compete with the Phillies now?

Does this even change anything?

Okay, that last one was typically a troll message from those who were going after the “Chicken Little” fans on Twitter and Facebook immediately after the announcement.

Certainly, the presence of Harper in the Atlanta Braves lineup would have been nice, but when looking at that deal, there’s a reason the team did not continue negotiations. In fact, there are some interesting things to consider with Bryce’s deal:

He left money on the table

Okay, he got the biggest total package of money, per his agent, but it was over 13 seasons, so the AAV for his deal comes out to $25.4 million per season throughout the life of the deal. For reference, that ranks him 11th in the major leagues in AAV for the life of his contract, meaning he’s not even broken the level of a top-10 paid player in the game.

The Atlanta Braves reportedly exceeded that AAV with an early 3-year offer that was just under $100 million. He would have been making between $30 million and $33 million per season if he would have taken the reported Braves offer, and he would have been back into free agency before he was even 30.

The deal was pretty simple

In terms, this was probably as easy to understand as any big contract in recent history. There will be no opt-out during the deal. There will be no deferments. There is a full no-trade clause, not some setup with a list of X-amount of teams that can be changed every year.

However, this deal is going to be fairly front-loaded (exact terms have not been released as the league has not approved them). Reports from those who have knowledge of the contract details lead one to believe that the Phillies orchestrated this deal in a way in order to be able to pursue Mike Trout heavily in two seasons.

Philly is not that much better

According to Fangraphs projections and Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections, the Braves were projected 1 game better than the Phillies. Based on knowing what goes into each projection, I’ve done some rough projections and figured that the Fangraphs projections will adjust the standings such that in Fangraphs, the Phillies gain 2 wins. Interestingly, the Nationals are the only one of the “top 4” in the NL East that loses a win overall when doing the projections in Fangraphs in my rough working. The spread of those four teams is from the Nationals at 89 wins to the Mets and Braves, now tied for 3rd at 84 wins.

Via PECOTA, things are tighter, with the Nationals and Mets losing a win, but not the Braves somehow (not sure how that works, but I just plugged in the numbers and that’s what came out!). The Phillies gained one win. That puts the spread from the Nationals at 88 wins to the Braves (in fourth) at 85 wins.

Overall, the race is still incredibly close on paper, even with this big name going to Philadelphia. While the Atlanta Braves may be ranked last in the NL East foursome in average wins between the two projections, the difference from top to bottom is less than 5 wins. The division is still absolutely up for grabs.

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The Phillies are now lined up for Trout

Front-loading Harper’s deal is supposed to allow the Phillies to compete heavily for Mike Trout when he becomes a free agent after the 2020 season. Before signing Harper, the Phillies had $63.7 million committed to 2021 with options to David Robertson and Jake Arrieta that would total $34 million. If you add in a $25 milion Harper, the team is already over $100 million on just 8 players.

Contrast that with the Atlanta Braves who have just 2 players under contract for 2021 for a total of $30.7 million, along with an exciting young roster to use in negotiations. Certainly, the Braves could make a big pitch for Trout.

However, before we start counting our “Trout and Acuna in the same outfield” eggs before they’re hatched, it’s poignant to note that the Angels, the team where Trout has spent his entire career, has just $53 million obliged to players for 2021. They’ve had plenty of success building up their farm system in recent years and have a new GM that was brought up in the Yankees model. Who knows if Trout will even hit the market?!

Next. Soroka back on the mound. dark

So, for those who are tremendously worried, remember that at one time, the Atlanta Braves reportedly offered the highest AAV to one Alex Rodriguez before he signed with the Texas Rangers, though they were not willing to go 10 years. Avoiding that deal ended up being an okay choice. This “miss” will be as well.

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