Trucks were loaded… trucks have arrived. The equipment is in place, many players are already on site. And still there’s work to be done.
It was about 2 weeks ago when I suggested that the Atlanta Braves off-season might be judged based on the next 7-10 days.
Well, here we are. February 9. Pitchers and catchers are to report by the 15th and the first full-squad workouts are set for the 21st.
These dates happen to both be the latest of all 30 major league clubs. Oakland’s batteries are even set to show up tomorrow. But it’s feeling like it may not matter how late the Braves get going, for there is still something missing.
Let’s look at what’s happened:
- ADDITIONS
- 3B Josh Donaldson
- P Darren O’Day (kinda, since he’ll be back from injury)
- C Brian McCann
- P Luiz Gohara (back from injury)
- P Mike Soroka (back from injury)
- C Raffy Lopez
- SS Pedro Florimon
- 3B Andres Blanco
- SUBTRACTIONS
- C Kurt Suzuki
- P Anibal Sanchez
- P Brad Brach
- 1B Lucas Duda
- P Peter Moylan
- C Rene Rivera
- UTL Ryan Flaherty
- P Brandon McCarthy
- P Adam McCreery
- P Ricardo Sanchez
- 3B Rio Ruiz
- Suzuki – best performing catcher (2 fWAR in 2018)
- Sanchez – 2nd best performing pitcher (2.4 fWAR with best starter ERA on staff)
- Camargo – hasn’t been lost, of course, but posted 3.3 fWAR in 2018 and getting him 500+ plate appearance again may be very difficult.
- The Phillies have certainly improved on both offense and defense
- The Mets have done likewise… probably
- The Nationals subtracted Harper, Weiters and Murphy, but will add Robles, Suzuki, Gomes, Adams, and Dozier to their offense, and Patrick Corbin as a starter.
- Nationals – 88 wins
- Braves/Phillies – 84 wins
- Mets – 82 wins
- Marlins – mail it in with close to 50
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In total, while Josh Donaldson could turn out to be an outstanding acquisition, you do have to balance him against what has been lost:
Estimating Camargo to be worth 2 fWAR in 2019, that’s 5.7 Wins above replacement that will need to be found from someplace else.
Is that Donaldson? Completely plausible… plus Albies (3.8), Acuna (3.7), Swanson (1.9) and Freeman (5.2) all have the potential to increase their production during the coming season.
But how much improvement can you expect in this division of high-end pitching? And is that all you’re counting on?
No Longer a Cakewalk
The Braves won nearly 2/3rd of their games against the NL East in 2018… 49-27. Even if you were to argue that all of the above is only “on paper”, there are certainly enough divisional “paper improvements” to declare that a repeated 49-27 outcome would be nearly miraculous… even if the Marlins go 0-76.
Right now… today… with expectations rampant that the Phillies are going to continue to be aggressively adding upgrades… I’d rank this division as follows:
I don’t know if that even would garner a Wild Card berth. While the NL West is looking terrible, the Central will mimic the East and have a very similar scrum going on. There could be 8 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots while the Dodgers coast.
The Braves need a “separator” … something to move their outlook above the pack.
This site has been scouring pitching options and hitting options galore via trades, free agent signings and anything else we could conjure up. I have every confidence that the Braves have done the same… except that there’s been nearly nothing of significance happening since early January when Nick Markakis was brought back… and before that it was November 26th (Donaldson, McCann).
Thus, this is what we’ve been reduced to as fans, which perfectly illustrates the problem at hand:
It’s a little sad that the best ATL can hope for is the really good players going somewhere out of the division instead of, you know, signing those players themselves, but yeah you’re probably right. https://t.co/FpT8RrnAuI
— Stephen (@b_outliers) February 9, 2019The next-best alternative I could add might be if the Phillies sign Harper, Keuchel, and Kimbrel and thus pretty much blow off next year’s draft thanks to lost picks.
Leave No Doubts
It wasn’t long ago that I had visions of a Realmuto trade acquisition, trade for Kluber, sign Kimbrel, and then start printing World Series tickets. Now Philly could almost do the same if they can get Harper, Kimbrel, and Mike Moustakas.
More from Tomahawk Take
No – it’s not about a single year’s foray (for that leads to stupid decisions)… but it is a progression: building your team up over time until there is an apex of opportunity to do great things.
The Braves are stalled on the ascent, though: every signing of significance – all free agents – are for deals that could be done after 2019. That doesn’t look much like a team that’s building a future.
Sure: as constructed, this Braves team will win and will win often. I don’t wish to diminish that outlook.
There’s just this nagging feeling that so much more could be done. I don’t want to even settle for beating foes… I wish to crush their hopes and dreams. I want the Braves to be the Red Sox of 2019.
Right now, the ‘crush’ isn’t going to happen. Oddly, there is still time to change that outlook. But after 3 months have passed by, the time for that kind of unbridled optimism is quickly waning.