Will Atlanta Braves really benefit from J.T. Realmuto?

The numbers

The common refrain that many have is that Realmuto is the top catcher in the entire game, and they have 2018 WAR numbers to back it up. Realmuto finished 2018 first in bWAR, 2nd in WARP, and 1st in fWAR.

Let’s dig into how those numbers would affect the Braves specifically, though…

Other improvements

Before even addressing Realmuto, it’s important to realize that the 2019 Atlanta Braves will be relying on players who had limited time on the major league team or even have a legit chance to improve in 2019.

A full season of Ronald Acuna, Jonny Venters, and Kevin Gausman, adding Josh Donaldson and Darren O’Day, and the potential of young players like Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Mike Foltynewicz, and Sean Newcomb to improve on their 2018 along with adding in contributions from top arms in the back of the rotation should offset any backslide from Nick Markakis, Charlie Culberson, or Johan Camargo.

Reviewing a few different projection systems saw roughly a 9-12 wins above replacement (depending on which system you use) improvement just from the current roster, taking into account the loss of Kurt Suzuki and Anibal Sanchez. That’s before any potential midseason additions.

Realmuto’s bat vs. Flowers/McCann

One common thread that you see in all places is that few believe that McCann can recover his pre-2018 form, which was one of the best defenders and a quality bat. Injuries cost McCann much of 2018, but while his batting average has never been a hallmark, he struggled with the lowest BABIP of his career along with one of his lowest walk rates and highest strikeout rates of his career.

Yes, McCann will be 35, but assuming he will continue down the road of 2018 is not necessarily wise, but it’s what the projection systems have, so here we are…

On just offensive projections (per Baseball-Reference) alone, McCann and Flowers combine for a .240/.324/.397/.721 line with 26 doubles and 24 home runs over 637 at bats. Realmuto is projected for a .277/.335/.450 line with 28 doubles and 16 home runs over 476 at bats. Add in that one/both of McCann/Flowers would be seeing the rest of the at bats at their current rate stats, you would see a total of .266/.332/.434/.766 for the catcher position with Realmuto with 36 doubles and 23 home runs.

In short, the projected offensive impact is 45 points of OPS increased OPS and actually one less home run.

WAR vs. WAR

Doing the same exercise, we can look at the current catching combination versus one with Realmuto and the WAR it would put up in various models.

Per Steamer’s projection system and ZIPs projection system, the Atlanta Braves fall roughly 200 plate appearances short of a full season from catcher with their two primary catchers. Extrapolating out the combined 2.0 fWAR over 501 plate appearances for Steamer brings out a 2.9 fWAR. Doing the same for ZIPs’ 1.7 fWAR over 571 at-bats brings you to 2.0 fWAR, so a range of 2-3 fWAR is in play for the current duo.

Adding in roughly 30% time for one of the backups to Realmuto’s projections, and you end up with a catching position that produces 4.4 fWAR via Steamer and 4.3 fWAR via ZIPs.

So, it’s a 1.5-2.5 fWAR difference between having Realmuto and having the current catching combo. For comparison, the Atlanta Braves received roughly that amount of fWAR from Kevin Gausman and Brad Brach after being acquired in July, and the fWAR system is notoriously downgrading to pitchers.

Leaving Miami

“But Ben,” you’ll say, “that stadium in Miami certainly hurts his offensive production. He’ll improve upon locating to a more neutral stadium such as Atlanta’s.”

That thought did occur to me as well, so I dug into the numbers.

In 2018, here are Realmuto’s home/away splits:

• Home: .269/.329/.444, 8 HR in 249 PA
• Away: .283/.350/.520, 13 HR in 282 PA

For his career, here is how he has performed at various parks around the NL East:

• Marlins Park: 1,008 PA, .245/.294/.384
• SunTrust Park: 77 PA, .304/.377/.565
• Citizens Bank Park: 109 PA, .282/.312/.476
• Citi Field: 125 PA, .308/.336/.462
• Nationals Park: 147 PA, .290/.333/.449

What I found very interesting is that in Marlins Park as he’s spent time there, he has learned to be patient and use the gaps in the ballpark, racking up doubles. When he leaves, he tends to get pull happy, and while that has resulted in solid production, it’s also left him with higher strikeout rates and lower walk rates on the road.

He’s also got a BABIP 50 points lower for his career at Marlins Park versus other fields, so some of his production numbers both ways could be explained that way.

While for his career, Realmuto sports an overall 5.7% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate (Albies had a 5.3% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate in 2018, for comparison), he walks at 6% at Marlins Park for his career, and among the four other active NL East parks, his walk rate is 4.8% and strikeout rate is 19%.

The tendency seems to be to swing for the fences outside of Marlins Park, and while that can work in short bursts, a more controlled approach would be needed at home, so most likely, he would work his way toward his Marlins Park norms over time as pitchers adjusted to his new style if he were in SunTrust for 81 games – or else he’d find some very tough sledding when he didn’t adapt.

So what does all this mean?!