The Atlanta Braves future is bright, but what will it cost?
The Atlanta Braves were one of the youngest teams in the major leagues last season and have much of the roster still on pre-arbitration contracts. What could arbitration costs in the future look like?
Ronald Acuña, Jr. lit the MLB on fire this season, with some help from players like Ozzie Albies, Touki Toussaint, A.J. Minter, and others. The Atlanta Braves were one of the youngest teams in the majors last year, due to the emergence of the aforementioned players.
As of now, they are getting paid figurative pennies for the value they are providing for the team. All of them are surely making under 1 million dollars a year.
Remember, Chris Davis is still being paid absurd amounts of money each year to look buff and strikeout 200 plus times a season. What I intend to do is establish how much some of the Braves young stars could look to make in their first arbitration-eligible seasons in the near future. Like I usually do, I’ll include video of each player for entertainment purposes.
The Big One
The obvious place to start is Ronald Acuña Jr.
If his career continues on its current trajectory, I think it’s totally reasonable to think that he could surpass the arbitration record 10.85 million given to Kris Bryant in his first arbitration-eligible year. Acuña posted a 4.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number as a hitter in 2018. According to Fangraphs, the “cost” of one war is approximately 10.5 million dollars. Based on this metric, Acuña is being criminally underpaid at the moment.
If he continues to post similar numbers in the coming years, once he hits arbitration in 2021 he should easily eclipse the 10.85 Million given to Bryant. Bryant averaged 671 plate appearances over his first 3 years as well as 6.6 WAR. Give Acuña the same number of appearances over his next few seasons, and there’s a chance he could equal or eclipse those numbers.
Considering he put up the stats that he did in only 487 plate appearances, it’s scary to imagine his potential over a whole season of opportunity. My tentative number for Acuña would be $11.5 Million.
Ronald Acuña Jr. doing Rookie of the Year things in Japan. pic.twitter.com/Aid5aHbA2z
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) November 15, 2018
Wagner clone?
AJ Minter burst onto the scene in 2018 as the de facto closer for much of the season in Arodys Vizcaino‘s absence. With Vizcaino hopefully being healthy on opening day, it isn’t clear who will be the closer.
That being said, Minter had a very good season. Personally, I think he is best suited to be a setup man, which is still a very important role. In the modern game, a setup man is often the more valuable pitcher in the bullpen, like Andrew Miller to Cody Allen in Cleveland, Josh Hader to Corey Knebel or Jeremy Jeffress in Milwaukee, and Adam Ottavino to Wade Davis in Colorado in 2018.
So, let’s assume that Minter is still just as good as he is now or better once he is arbitration-eligible. If I am looking for a precedent, the Atlanta Braves themselves kindly provided me one. Vizcaino’s first arbitration deal was for 897,500 dollars.
Considering that Minter is probably better now then Vizcaino was then, I’m going to be a bit aggressive with this prediction. I think he could easily surpass a million when his name is called. I’ll go with $1,100,000 as my prediction.
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1036241252700889089
The Chain
Ozzie Albies had a terrific first half of the season, nearly winning the fan vote for the starting second baseman for the All-Star game, and still making it on as a reserve. He hit for over 20 home runs (which I certainly did not expect), played great defense, and was a terror on the base paths.
However, the second half was not nearly as kind to him. He hit only hit .226 with 4 home runs, compared to .281 with 20 homers in the first half. I think his best baseball is still ahead of him, and hopefully, once it’s arbitration time he will get what he deserves. Our own Benjamin Chase had a good report on Albies’ pro comparison all the way back in 2017.
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“However, two of those three mentioned players have a legit comp in the Braves system, and the Altuve/Albies comp has been one that has been made among scouts who have seen both since Albies burst on the scene with his play in Rome in 2015. Now that Albies has shifted to second base, the comparison seems even more apt as well. While Altuve has seen a power spike that I don’t foresee in Albies’ future, if you take his 2012-2015 averages, that’s not a crazy thought for Albies: .308/.347/.420, 38 doubles, 3 triples, 8 HR, 40 SB, 35/70 BB/K.”
Since Altuve never went to arbitration, there’s no direct comp for the salaries. He signed a 4 year, 12.5 million dollar extension in 2013 to avoid it. So if we extrapolate that to a $3.125 million salary, we can have a rough comparison.
I don’t think Ozzie will make that much the first year of arbitration. My prediction would be $1.5 Million dollars.
Ozzie Albies is too smooth
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 13, 2018
via @Braves pic.twitter.com/V1EnjqVR2W
Next. Is signing Kimbrel a possibility?. dark
These are only a few of the important young players who will shape the future in Atlanta. Obviously, I’m looking a bit far into the future, but eventually, these young stars will have to be paid. Hopefully, the Atlanta Braves will be able to retain them in the years to come and avoid another teardown like the disastrous years of 2014-2017.