LAKE BUENA VISTA, FL - MARCH 03: The glove, batting gloves, and bat of Matt Lipka #86 of the Atlanta Braves it on the field before the game against the New York Mets on March, 3 2014 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL – APRIL 01: Members of the grounds crew clean the pitcher’s rubber before a game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Yankees at Marlins Park on April 1, 2012 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
The Atlanta Braves have a very deep farm system, but the emergence of this Texan lefty has given the Braves even more depth in elite arms.
This is the first in what will be a series of scouting reports as we prepare for Opening Day 2019, looking at the prospects still in the minor league system for the Atlanta Braves. Today, we will start with one of the biggest risers in the farm system in 2019, Kyle Muller.
Before we get into the report, a quick note that this report is based on multiple views on the player via video views of him in-game, not views at the ballpark. Rather than 1-2 views in person, this report is based on 5-7 full games viewed on video for each player. This also means players who aren’t yet able to be viewed on video will not be part of this series.
Player background
Exceptionally well-developed at 6’6″ and 200 pounds as a high schooler, Kyle Douglas Muller was a high school standout in his final year at Dallas Jesuit Prep. Muller had a commitment to the University of Texas as a two-way player, with an impressive bat from the left side to go along with incredible exploits on the mound and projectable stuff with his frame and strength, once recording 37 consecutive outs via strikeout!
The Atlanta Braves gambled on the Gatorade High School Player of the Year in 2016. They selected Muller with their third selection of the 2016 draft, the 44th pick overall at the beginning of the second round. Muller signed for $2.5 million.
The Braves assigned Muller to the Gulf Coast League in his draft season, and he was incredible. He made 10 appearances, 9 of them starts, with 27 2/3 innings thrown. He posted a 0.65 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, a 10.9% walk rate, and a 34.5% strikeout rate.
Atlanta was intentional in easing the transition for the former two-way player to full-time work on the mound, and he spent extra time in spring training in 2017 before spending all of the season with Danville. He put up solid, albeit not spectacular numbers, with 11 starts, 47 2/3 innings, a 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, an 8.7% walk rate, and a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Muller opened the 2018 season with low-A Rome, but by the end of the season, he would have climbed over high-A Florida to AA Mississippi. In all, Muller made 25 starts, tossing 139 2/3 innings, posting a 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, an 8% walk rate, and a 22.6% strikeout rate.
Muller then represented the Atlanta Braves in the Arizona Fall League. He made 7 appearances, all in relief, tossing 10 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.53 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and he had 8 walks to 15 strikeouts.
Scouting Report
Size/Delivery/Control
Size – Muller has filled out into his frame, standing a full 6’6″ tall and listed at 225 pounds. I’d wager the weight is on the mark, if maybe 5-15 pounds on the light side, though it’s not bad weight that he’s put on since his high school years.
Delivery – Muller has a pretty simple delivery, starting off set to the plate, then bringing his knee up just below his chest before kicking toward the plate.
Muller’s biggest inconsistency in his delivery is at his hips. He will often lean forward toward first base before coming tall and toward the plate. Other times he stays tall throughout the delivery.
When he stays tall throughout, he has more consistent arm swing and ends up high 3/4 to almost over the top with his arm slot, which is a huge advantage from his height. When he bends, he can vary from a high 3/4 slot to a typical 3/4 slot.
Control (45) – One typical issue with guys over 6’4″ is keeping their body consistent for control, and for Muller, that’s an issue as well, but it’s not the same way as most. Typically taller guys struggle with their long arms and legs getting out of sync in their delivery, and Muller doesn’t seem to have that same issue.
The bend at the waist for Muller is inconsistent, and that leads to an inconsistent arm slot. When he’s more consistent in his actions at his midsection, he can be dominant as he has a stable arm slot and can flash plus control and command.
Pitches
Fastball (60) – Coming out of high school, Muller was considered projectable due to his excellent frame, but he was only working in the upper-80s with his fastball, flashing better velocity, but unable to hold it. He’s now able to hold mid-90s velocity deep into games with excellent late movement on his fastball, touching 96-97.
Change Up (45) – By far, the pitch that needs the most work in Muller’s arsenal is his change. He has the potential for an excellent change, but at this point, he really uses it as a definite fourth pitch. At his height and arm slot, he could be a candidate to change to a split-change as his primary changeup.
Curve Ball (50) – Muller has really done well developing the shape of his curveball, but he needs to work on developing the accuracy and consistency of the pitch. The pitch works in the mid-70s with a 12-6 loop. Muller can locate the pitch up and down within the center of the plate, but when attempting to work to either side of the plate, he struggles with locating the pitch.
Slider (60) – The slider from Muller seems to have the ability to be manipulated. He flashed a sweeping slider that tends to work 82-84, and then his primary slider works with a short break that is 83-86 with a late, sharp break. Muller is able to control the pitch well, firing the ball with excellent location, often using just his fastball and slider to work through a lineup as much as two times through a lineup.
MLB Player Comp
The best comp for Muller stuck out right away as I watched him in high school, but I didn’t want to immediately assign a borderline Hall of Famer to his comp, but I think the Atlanta Braves may be excited with the guy that Muller continues to remind me of.
While their draft positions are nothing alike, Kyle Muller and Andy Pettitte share the frame, left-handedness, and Texan background in common. When you look at their pitch combinations, they also have plenty in common. Interestingly, Pettitte was able to have plenty of success in the minor leagues, but the Yankees still brought him along slowly, reaching the majors in 1995 at age 23.
Pettitte’s 4-pitch mix was a fastball, cutter, curve, and change, which is akin to Muller’s mix. Much like Pettitte, Muller primarily features a fastball, slider, and curve, with his change his fourth pitch. Once public data became available, Pettitte never had above 10% use of his changeup. That could be similar changeup use for Muller that works for him down the road.
Future Role
With his strong frame and low-stress delivery, Muller could be a guy who handles heavy innings in the middle of a rotation. He’s got a mid-rotation projection especially if he could work on something to keep same-side hitters honest, like a stronger changeup, a cutter, or a fastball variant, like a split-finger
His fastball/slider combination is such that if he focused just on those pitches, he could be a dominant reliever, but the starter role is definitely the route the team would prefer he end up.
dark. Next. Braves hint that a deal is close?
The Atlanta Braves have a tremendous depth of left-handed pitching in the farm system, but Muller could end up being the one who has the longest major league career, even if he doesn’t have the highest peak overall.
