Atlanta Braves: Outlook for the offense in L.A.
It was announced yesterday that the Dodgers will throw two lefties in the first two games of the NLDS: Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 2.
The Atlanta Braves will face the best that the Dodgers have to offer in Games 1 and 2 with a former Cy Young award winner leading the way, followed by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Both pitchers missed significant time this season to injury, but when healthy, Kershaw and Ryu were dynamite.
Kershaw, finished with an ERA of 2.73 in 161.1 innings, while Ryu held a 1.97 ERA in 82.1 innings.
Okay, the bad news is over and really it is not all doom and gloom for the Braves as they head into their first postseason appearance in five years.
As it was documented prominently lately, the Braves are not bad against left-handed pitching slashing .269/.333/.444 against southpaws this season.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the notable numbers against each starter.
For as good as Kershaw has been in the regular season over the past decade, his postseason struggles are no secret. He has a 4.35 ERA in 122 innings in the playoffs.
(However, he has a 0.69 ERA against the Braves, which were Game 1 and Game 4 of the miserable 2013 NLDS. Thanks, Fredi.)
I digress…
- Freddie Freeman has slashed .240/.321/.360 against Kershaw, including a homer and 11 strikeouts.
- Ender Inciarte has hit .294 and Nick Markakis is 4-for-9. The catching tandem of Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers are a combined 2-for-16.
- Albies, Acuna and Camargo do not have much experience as they are 3-for-15 combined.
These are not great numbers, which was expected.
Against Ryu, however, only three Braves have much experience, as he missed the entire 2015 season, much of 2016 and did not face the Braves last season or this season.
- Freeman is 5-for-8 with no strikeouts,
- former teammate Charlie Culberson is 3-for-7
- Adam Duvall is 4-for-7.
The Braves have the reputation of being a good fastball-hitting team and in fact they are ranked 12th in the league, according to Fangraphs pitch value metric.
They also rank seventh against curveballs and eighth against sliders.
What does this mean?
Not as much as I initially thought. My expectation was for the Braves to be well below league average on off-speed stuff and well above on fastballs.
One thing of particular note though is how well a significant number of the Braves lineup has hit at Dodger Stadium.
At Chavez Ravine:
- Freeman carries an average of .305 with five home runs in 112 plate appearances.
- Markakis is slashing .298/.376/.442.
- Camargo has hit three homers in 53 plate appearances.
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The benefit the Braves may have is that so many guys have faced Kershaw (and he’s not been as dominate as in times’ past), but for Ryu… much is unknown to them.
Ryu did have a shaky August after coming back from injury, but his last 3 outings were dialed in: 6+ innings each with only 1 run allowed… total.
I guess the Dodger folks can make the same argument about not knowing their opposition, but I think this plays into the hitters’ favor more.
The Braves will have to take advantage of opportunities and manufacture their runs. They’ve done so ably against pitchers like Scherzer and deGrom… so they should be used to such tough matchups.
Next. Bullpen bolstered. dark
A split in LA would be great and based on the numbers, it seems very possible.