You can expect a flurry of words to be spent elsewhere gushing about the Nationals today after sweeping away the Phillies. But don’t lose sight of the real story.
I won’t hide what that real story is: the Atlanta Braves are now leading the National League’s Eastern division by 7 and 1/2 games here on the morning of September 13.
The fact that the Braves won 6 out of 7 on a West Coast road trip is an outstanding feat for a team that was expected by many to shrink at the sight of their own shadow once the Red Sox left town.
Nonetheless, there is a bit of due diligence to perform here: the Nationals have won 5 in a row to rise up 2 games above the .500 level. Oooooo…. scary stuff.
This is their best string in a while (2 six-game streaks happened earlier in the year), and now they host the Cubs in a make-up game before heading to SunTrust Park for what could be an abbreviated weekend set.
But while now at 74-72, there are a few more things to note about the Nats:
- They were once 11 games over .500 …. yes, that happened this year; last time at 37-26 after a June 9th victory over the Giants.
- They are still something of a shell of their former selves, having traded away Daniel Murphy, Lucas Giolito, and others.
- Let’s say for a moment that Atlanta coasts into the off-season over their last 16 games at a pedestrian 8-8 clip. Washington would have to go 16-0 in order to tie the Braves at 90-72.
Friday’s game has Max Scherzer scheduled to face the Braves. This team’s approach against Mad Max has been solid – and Atlanta has won against him (or against the bullpen) on multiple occasions. But even if not, the odds are firmly against any notion of Atlanta being caught from behind.
Wild Card also a Reach
The Nats, after all, are still behind even the Phillies (though that’s likely to change over the next couple of weeks based on trends: Philadelphia is 2-8 recently and in full panic mode; Washington is 6-4).
But the Nats still have to pass 4 teams to get up to a Wild Card game: they enter this day a full 7 games behind the Cardinals.
In fact, things don’t really even get interesting – at all – unless the following happens:
- Washington beats the Cubs today, then sweeps Atlanta
- Atlanta sweeps St. Louis
After that, they finish with the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies (in Denver). Whatever move they might make clearly has to happen before that last series.
The Cardinals, in turn, face the Dodgers next before coming to Atlanta. In fact, theirs is the most brutal schedule on all contenders.
After Atlanta they get the Giants, Brewers, and Cubs… so there’s ample reason to believe that St. Louis could fade… but then there’s the Dodgers and D-Backs who could jump up instead before the Nationals have a chance.
Handicapping the NL Races
Based on all of that, the real dogfight is going to be for that 2nd Wild Card slot. But it almost certainly won’t include the Nationals.
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The Cardinals and Dodgers (currently 2 games apart) look to make that very close at the end. True, the Nats look like the only team that could make a late run… but we’ve been waiting for that run to happen all Summer – while they were better equipped to do so.
The Cardinals have the tougher schedule while LA needs to beat them this weekend to jump up into Wild Card position. The Dodgers face their entire division before ending the year, but much of that is looking to be very beatable lately.
My guess from here? The Dodgers catch and pass St. Louis, then face Milwaukee in the Wild Card game.
The Nationals should win more than they lose down the stretch and finish roughly even with the Cardinals – making a lot of people decry “what should have been” about their 2018 season.
I’m looking forward to all of that hand-wringing.
But it’s starting to feel like a Braves/Rockies first round series. That could be some interesting and exciting baseball.
Yes – baseball in October. That phrase really has a nice ring to it.