The Atlanta Braves continue to lead the NL East but their lineup’s not producing as it did earlier in the season.
The Atlanta Braves finished the first half of the season with a 52-42 record, a +70 run differential, and a .533 winning percentage. That winning percentage was twenty points lower than the Pythagorean percentage of .573 based on run differential. That .573 works out to two more wins.
Meanwhile, the Phillies (.558) and Nationals (.534) overachieved by about 30 points each. In other words, the Braves could have done better and their competitors worse; but that’s why we actually play the games.
Since the All Star Break, the Atlanta Braves are 21-15 with a +30 run differential and a .583 winning percentage which their Pythagorean say should be .603; that works out to only one more win.
Fans who watch the games know they could (should) easily have won four more games in the last 10 days, so what happened?
Short version: player fatigue and niggling injuries hampered the bullpen and the lineup but any reinforcements will have to come from within.
Atlanta Braves pitching
Three weeks ago Ben wrote that the Braves young pitchers were recording ERA’s nearly a run higher than in the first half.
"On average, that’s an increase of 0.88 in ERA across those six pitchers. This is why the added arms of Brad Brach, Jonny Venters, and Kevin Gausman were so important at the deadline. . . .Even more important will be how manager Brian Snitker utilizes his young pitchers the rest of the season . . ."
The arrival of Gausman stabilized the starters and took some pressure off of the bullpen. Brach looks worse on the mound than his numbers indicate.
Since arriving, Brach’s appeared in 13 games, thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked six and struck out 14. Five of the hits and one of the walks came against the Rockies as did all four runs he’s allowed so far. Harking back to my post of relievers, six of those innings qualified as no-hit innings pitched which is ~ 50% of his innings so far.