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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: prognostication progress

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 13: Mike Foltynewicz #26 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the Miami Marlins during game two of a doubleheader at SunTrust Park on August 13, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 13: Mike Foltynewicz #26 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the Miami Marlins during game two of a doubleheader at SunTrust Park on August 13, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – JULY 11: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves hits a sixth inning solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at SunTrust Park on July 11, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – JULY 11: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves hits a sixth inning solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at SunTrust Park on July 11, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Hitter Questions

Hitters Q1: How many home runs will the Braves hit in 2018 (165 last season; MLB range was 128 to 241)?

  • At the moment, the number is 138
  • The Braves are on pace for 180 home runs, though some (Albies) have slowed their hitting pace.
  • Even with that, 165 looks to be easily reached (thus our concerns early on about how to ‘replace’ the homers lost from Matt Kemp, Matt Adams, et al has been answered).

Hitters Q2: What will be the team on-base percentage for 2018 (was .326 in 2017; NL ranged from .299 to .338)?

  • .325 is the current number (prior to Monday’s game)
  • This is nearly identical to 2017’s on-base rate.
  • The Braves rank 10th overall

Hitters Q3: How many runs will the Braves score in 2018 (732 last season; NL ranged from 604 to 824)?

  • This is happily much better – 597 so far, and on pace for 780.
  • That’s up almost 50 runs over 2017.
  • This ranks 6th in the majors pending the outcome of the Cardinals/Dodgers matchup late Monday night.  LA came into their game 3 runs behind Atlanta.

Hitters Q4: Team strikeout rate… higher or lower (was MLB-best 19.0% in 2017; NL range 19.0% to 25.6%)?

  • Improving on the best is difficult, but the Braves are still good here.
  • As of Sunday night, this is 20.2%.
  • That’s good 5th in the majors – and first in the National League (just barely in front of the Pirates, though they K’d 8 times vs. 5 for Atlanta on Monday).

Hitters Q5: Number of games played: Albies, Inciarte, and Freeman combined?

  • I could have added Nick Markakis here, but he’s not been an injury risk while the others might have been.
  • Currently:  124 (Freeman), 120 (Inciarte), and 120 (Albies):  364 games, with only 8 days off between the 3 of them.
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