Since the Atlanta Braves moved Ronald Acuna, Jr. to the leadoff spot in the lineup, it has catapulted his season into overdrive. The 20-year-old rookie is flourishing there, and it doesn’t need to stop.
Monster Second Half
There’s no question among almost everyone in baseball that Ronald Acuna, Jr. is a stud, and potential star in the making. However, his rookie campaign got of to a sluggish start. He began the season in Gwinnett and struggled to find himself for a while. Once he found a rhythm, he was on his way to the Atlanta Braves.
Acuna, right now, is on a hot streak, but it wasn’t that way just a month ago. Before the All-Star break, Acuna had hit in the 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th spots in the lineup. That’s a total of 185 plate appearances. In those spots, he combined for 41 hits, 11 2B’s, no triples, 7 HR’s, 24 runs scored, 19 RBI, and a combined .143 BA (this .143 was an average of his BA from all spots but the leadoff spot). He also has 12 BB’s, 58 K’s, and 2 stolen bases.
Since being put at the top, he’s gone off. Technically, his first taste of that spot came the game before the ASG break. A move necessitated by the inconsistency of Ender Inciarte. Yet, still, since moving there, after the break, his season has done a 180.
In the number one slot alone, he’s become a man possessed. Acuna is swinging a big stick right now and he’s posting some crazy numbers.
In only 72 plate appearances, he’s made them count. Acuna has 21 hits, 4 2B’, a triple, 5 HR’s, 13 runs scored, 11 RBI, 6 BB’s, 19 K’s and 5 stolen bases. And he’s slashing a ho-hum, .323/.389/.646/1.035.
Where He REALLY Helps
Even with all this second half success and surge, there’s one area where Acuna has been consistently providing value for the Atlanta Braves: High Leverage Situations.
Fangraphs tracks leverage situational production, and they break it down into three categories: Low Leverage, Medium Leverage, and High Leverage.
Acuna is killing it in high leverage situations. He’s hitting .600 (6 for 10) in high leverage at-bats. In medium leverage, he’s hitting .240 (25 for 104). It’s a small sample, yes, but high leverage at-bats don’t come around too often, so context matters here.
In those situations, he has a double and a home run driving in six runs. With runners in scoring position, Acuna is hitting .340 (17 for 50) with 4 doubles, 2 home runs, and 18 RBI and 7 BB’s.
His advanced metric for those same high leverage situations is video game-esque. Aside from his .600 average, he’s carrying a BABIP of .833 and 339 wRC+. Runners in scoring position? A .441 BABIP and 160 wRC+.
Don’t Fix What Ain’t Broken
After all of this, it’s clear that Acuna should never vacate that spot in the lineup. He’s everything we need in a leadoff hitter. But what this scenario presents, has impending implications for the future. One of Inciarte or … *GULP* (single tear trickle downs the face) … Nick Markakis, out of Young Harris, won’t be wearing a Braves uniform in 2019.
We all know Kakes is in the last year of a 4-year deal. Inciarte on the other hand, is under team control through 2021, with a team option for 2022, worth $9 million and a $1.02 million buyout. Could it be possible that maybe both are gone by next season?
The Atlanta Braves are on the hook for $22.1 million to Inciarte in the next three years. Would it be wise to part ways with Ender and sign Kakes to another one-year deal at maybe a lower salary than the $11 million he is making now, as opposed to carrying Inciarte? Inciarte would be cheaper since his highest annual salary comes in the 2021 season at $8.7 million, that’s not counting the option year because it’s not known if that will happen yet.
Only time will tell, and this is probably best laid on in another discussion. It’s just something to think about. In the meantime, let’s just revel in the current success and hope for a strong finish to 2018. We’ll worry about 2019, in 2019.