Atlanta Braves lineup: Does Ozzie Albies continue leading off
By Fred Owens
The Book says
I’m told frequently that “The Book” recommends a team’s best hitter should hit first. The actual wording is slightly different.
"Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 . . . fourth- and fifth-best (in) the #3 and #5 slots. . . #1 and #2 slots. . .players with more walks than. . . the #4 and #5 . . . slot(s) #6 through #9 . . . in descending order of quality. (Emphasis added)"
Paraphrasing for simplicity, the recommendations are:
- The leadoff man hits with the fewest runners on base; use the hitter with the highest OBP but least home run power.
- The #2 and #4 hitters see the most runners on base. use the best hitter (OBP) with home run power fits here.
- The #3 hitter is the fourth or fifth best depending on wOBA
- The cleanup hitter should be the hitter closest to the player hitting second; high OBP and SLG with a wOBA about the same as the #2 hitter.
- Fifth – The best remaining hitter with power
Using that model right now the lineup would be:
- Johan Camargo
- Freddie Freeman
- Charlie Culberson
- Nick Markakis
- Ozzie Albies
- Kurt Suzuki / Tyler Flowers
- Ronald Acuna
- Dansby Swanson
- Pitcher
The assumes that the second and fourth hitters have the most opportunities with runners on base. That’s not true in the NL today and even more importantly, that lineup negates the thing that’s made the Braves so successful early on: speed.
Times change
The game’s changed and over the last five years, the number one and two hitters in the national league saw almost the same number of PA with runners on base. The three-hole hitter saw twice as many as either of those spots.
With RISP the gap narrows, but even accounting for lost at-bats the #2 hitter ranks fourth. That changes the requirements slightly and explains why Freeman sits solidly in the three spot for the Atlanta Braves instead of moving up like Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs have a far deeper lineup making Joe Madden’s job a lot easier.