Winning breeds expectations. Here’s 5 things that have to improve this Summer for Atlanta to finish out as they started – and to meet those new expectations.
Things aren’t all bad for the Atlanta Braves, despite stumbling into the break with 2+ losses in each of their last 3 sets. Despite all of that, they are just a half game behind the Phillies.
The Braves are now 10 games above .500 at 52-42, with 68 games (42%) of the season remaining. When they open up again on Friday in Washington (vs. newly-returning Stephen Strasburg), they will start a mixed-difficulty schedule that features only NL East opponents through August 9th – save for the Dodgers near the end of the month.
But there are good reasons for Braves’ fans just to chill a bit:
- Only a ½ game out
- 5 games ahead of the 48-48 Nationals
- The Mets are essentially being left for dead
- The Phillies are not going to get Manny Machado (though Atlanta will see him and the Dodgers for 4 games soon enough)
Can report with more certainty: Machado to #Dodgers happening. Among remaining questions, in addition to specifics of return beyond OF Yusniel Diaz: How much money, if any, #Orioles will send #Dodgers to secure a better package and help ease LAD’s luxury-tax concerns.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 18, 2018
But these things alone won’t bring the Braves to the Promised Land. It’s going to take some improvements. Here’s 5 things they need to do… in no particular order.
5. Acuña Must Adjust
On Saturday, Arizona pitcher Zack Greinke schooled the rookie with 2 strikeouts among a groundout and fly ball to left centerfield. That’s been fairly commonplace lately.
In his last 32 plate appearances, Ronald Acuña Jr has 4 hits and 1 walk. 2 doubles, 2 singles.
He also has 12 strikeouts over that span (back through July 4th). Fred hit on this problem earlier.
Acuña will be okay here. He will hit in the majors… but he is also finding out that pitchers are quite willing to take full advantage of his aggressiveness.
But what’s surprising here is what he’s striking out on. BrooksBaseball.net has an interesting summary of the phenom:
"Against Fastballs (441 seen), he has had a very aggressive approach at the plate (-0.15 c) with a high likelihood to swing and miss (25% whiff/swing)."
Now sure – he’s missing changeups (25% whiffs) and breaking balls (33%) as well, but that’s not terribly surprising. In fact, those whiff rates are characterized as ‘below average’ and ‘league average’, respectively.
It’s the fastball that’s a puzzling development, for big league hitters should hit fastballs with regularity… especially since this is the most common pitch. Against Acuña this is the breakdown (via Brooks again):
- 441 fastballs
- 249 breaking balls
- 74 off-speed pitches
Freddie Freeman actually has an above average tendency to swing-and-miss fastballs as well… but his rate is 20%. Nick Markakis? A scant 9%.
If Acuña is able to make a successful adjustment, this will drive the offense for Atlanta.. and likely will make everybody else a little better, too.
4. Get Two Bullpen Pieces
We have been harping on this for several days now: the Braves need a couple of new bullpen arms. The basic reasons are simple:
- Improve the results from the relief corps in general
- Reduce the innings count from those being relied upon too much already
I won’t belabor this point… if you want the gory details, we have talked about this topic extensively here, here, and here. Oh, and here as well.