The Atlanta Braves could be done for 2018 if Philly gets Manny Machado

For much of the season, the Braves have owned the East while all the pundits have been waiting for the Nationals to wake up.  But a new force may be rising from the East – one that threatens to end the discussion early.

Next weekend.  That’s the most likely time frame in which the Atlanta Braves and everyone else will learn the new landing spot for Orioles’ star and left-side-infielder Manny Machado.

Sure, a deal could be done before the All-Star break, but even if someone offered the moon and a couple of (All-)stars for Manny Machado, it’s likely that Orioles’ ownership will not deny their remaining fans one more opportunity to play in the Orange-and-Black before he’s shipped off in exchange for a couple of new and shiny prospects.

But never mind all that.  My fear is that the Philadelphia Phillies are going to end up with him – a move that would probably trump any other move that either the Braves or Nationals could possibly do before July 31st.

July 13 MLB Trade Rumors’ summary:

12:55pm: The Phillies have improved their offer to the Orioles for star infielder Manny Machado, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). 6:30pm: Rosenthal adds on Twitter that the O’s are taking a closer look at the Philadelphia farm. And Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that there has been “some progress” between the sides

The Numbers Say So

The Phillies are all about analytics this season, and so they already know full well what I’m about to relate to you.

Let’s just start with the total team fWAR for offense and defense… the number of Wins Above Replacement that the Phillies have generated this season (by fangraphs’ reckoning).

As of today, Philadelphia ranks 20th in the majors with 8.6.  This figure is the lowest of any contending team… certainly the lowest of any team in first place.

The next closest is the Diamondbacks (18th) with 9.6 (yes, that’s a sizable gap).

The Atlanta Braves are sitting at 6th on this chart… 15.7, with much of that contributed by their defense, which fangraphs rates as 3rd in the majors.

The Phillies are into negative component numbers on both offense and defense, which begs the question:  how are these people still competitive, much less in first place???

That’s easy: their pitching WAR ranks 4th in the majors… essentially in a tie for 3rd with the Red Sox.  So in other words, they need better offense and defense and could benefit quickly from an upgrade like Manny Machado.

Would the Braves be better with him?  Sure:  they certainly would, but not nearly this dramatically.

It Goes Deeper

Let’s look at the left side of the Phillies’ infield.  At shortstop, they have used…

• Pedro Florimon (62 plate appearances):  0.3 fWAR
• Scott Kingery (333 PA, but has moved around a lot):  0.1 fWAR
• J.P. Crawford (112 PA):  -0.1 fWAR

At third base…

• Maikel Franco* (293 PA), 0.7 fWAR
• Crawford
• Mitch Walding (small cup of coffee): -0.2 fWAR
• Jesmuel Valentin (69 PA): -0.2 fWAR

* – I highlight Franco, because it’s apparent that somebody told him that he needed to get his act together, for over the past month – coinciding with the Philly ascension – he’s hit .329… and .359 just in July alone.  That’s not good news for the Braves.

All of the above points to a need at shortstop for Philadelphia – the spot that Machado would certainly fill.

Machado has produced 3.6 fWAR himself (yes – that would be over 40% of the entire Philadelphia team’s output) so far this year, and is doing his own show-casing bid by hitting .348 in July.  He’s on pace for a 7 WAR season.

You wanna know another name on exactly that same WAR pace?  Freddie Freeman.  He started hotter than that and has slowed recently, but this morning, he’s also sitting on 3.6 fWAR for the year.  That’s what kind of player Philadelphia is looking to add to their otherwise lackluster offense.