Atlanta Braves trade rumors: let’s talk about Manny Machado

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles waits to bat against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles waits to bat against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
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DUNSTABLE, ENGLAND – APRIL 11: Asian elephants walk in the paddock ahead of the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh’s visit to ZSL Whipsnade Zoo at the Elephant Centre on April 11, 2017 in Dunstable, United Kingdom.  (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)
DUNSTABLE, ENGLAND – APRIL 11: Asian elephants walk in the paddock ahead of the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh’s visit to ZSL Whipsnade Zoo at the Elephant Centre on April 11, 2017 in Dunstable, United Kingdom.  (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)

Where do you think he’s gonna play?

So he wanted – and possibly demanded, depending on who you believe – to play his ‘natural position’ of shortstop this season for the Orioles.  Let me just go ahead and cut to this statement from Jeff Todd at MLB Trade Rumors, made just this morning:

"Braves: While the focus has long been on third base, there’s arguably a greater need at short. Johan Camargo has out-hit Dansby Swanson, after all. Regardless, an addition on the left side of the infield would deepen the overall mix. With the Braves continuing to pace the NL East, an immediate postseason push no longer seems overly hopeful at all."

Shortstop or third base?

If you check fangraphs’ defensive ratings throughout Machado’s career, a pattern jumps out:

  • 2012-2017, playing 3B (primarily):  UZR/150  +14.8, +21.5, +12.5, +5.8, +9.9, +2.2
  • 2015 (53 innings at SS):  UZR/150 -4.2
  • 2016 (380 innings at SS):  UZR/150 1.4
  • 2018 (741 innings at SS):  UZR/150 -15.5
  • Totals:  -8.7 at SS; 10.4 at 3B

In short (no pun intended), it’s fairly evident that while Manny may believe he’s a more comfortable fit at shortstop, he’s actually a better defender at third.

In fact, while he’s hitting better than any Braves player not named ‘Freeman’, Dansby Swanson is out-playing him at shortstop… though Machado could be expected to be better even than Johan Camargo at third base.

So the easy answer is:  if the Braves actually trade for Machado, he should play third base.  Camargo would return to the Super-Utility role, and the Braves’ bench suddenly gets better, too.

Unless…

Suppose this scenario unfolds:  Atlanta executes a trade deal that gives the Orioles “a little more” than is necessary contingent on Machado signing a long-term extension deal with the Braves.

Would he sign if he was told “you’re playing third base“?  Would he be convinced to look at the numbers and realize that third base is where his value is best?  Certainly as he enters free agency after this season, all suitors would be telling him the same thing… the numbers aren’t lying.

Honestly, if the Braves are serious about such a pursuit, this question would need to be answered in full before anything else happens, for everything about this player revolves around him being good with his position, his new surroundings, and his own perception of his future.

So How Big Do You Wanna Go?

We’ve got the Bleacher Report today suggesting that it would require Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, Cristian Pache, and Touki Toussaint for the Braves to obtain Jake deGrom.  That’s actually almost identical to the foursome that I proposed at the end of May in response to a request from a Mets writer (swapping in Anderson in place of Toussaint).  Note that deGrom comes with 2 more years of control after 2018.

You’ve got JP Morosi suggesting today that the Braves would be reluctant to give up their 2 (current) top prospect arms in Ian Anderson and Max Fried for Machado while the Orioles would want 2 top arms for their third ba… er, shortstop.  Whether that’s true or not, he’s proffering a price in such a trade.

Then there’s another rental… Zach Britton… to consider in the Braves’ pursuit of a more effective bullpen.

Next: Best to Review Alex's Trade Thoughts

This is all a tough call.  While this is primarily about Machado, there are solid reasons to pursue any of the three noted here (I’m discounting Nate Eovaldi at this time).  Any would be that ‘impact player’.  All would exact a fairly significant price.

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