It’s fun to dream…. it’s more fun to dream big. So Kenny Rosenthal decided to go ‘all in’ with dreams today in a video update about the coming trade deadline.
The top players that will be available for trade this Summer will probably be Manny Machado and J.T. Realmuto. So naturally, Ken Rosenthal just mentioned both as possible trade targets for the Atlanta Braves.
Without further delay, let me go ahead and cite the video that all of this speculation comes from. But let me also quickly point out that the context of this pretty much falls under the category of ‘due diligence’ and certainly not ‘active rumor’.
In short, this isn’t a news report – it’s a troll job.
This is hardly the first time that anyone has started connecting Player A to Team B on this kind of level… and not the first time such talk has revolved around Machado. Or Realmuto.
Back in the Spring, rumors connected the Cubs to the Orioles. That was debunked. Before that, there was the odd conspiracy theories involving the White Sox and Machado… and then (by extension) maybe the Yankees.
In January, the Nationals were connected to Realmuto. That report at least appears to have had some validity to it.
This bit from Rosenthal today? Nothing but ‘Captain Obvious’ speculation, though in coming from a nationally respected reporter, it will get a lot more play than it deserves.
Heck – for that reason alone, we have to talk about it; even if for no other reason than to trash the message.
The Scenarios
But since Rosenthal did that much, let’s at least go through the motions here, since everything he mentioned is actually probably true. Yes: the Braves have needs within the next year at catcher, right field, and third base, and starting pitcher. But beyond that, any names mentioned are merely window dressing concocted to fill a 40 second video slot.
Realmuto first:
Of all contending teams desperate for catching help (and there aren’t that many), the Nationals are still the club that makes most sense. What they already have to deal with is the fact that the Marlins’ price for him hasn’t gone down – and probably will not have to.
In March, that price was said to be Victor Robles and Juan Soto – Washington’s #1 and #2 prospects and #3 and #37 overall, according to MLBPipeline.
Realmuto is this year’s Jonathan Lucroy – the best available catcher (by far) that would be available. As the nearly last decent trade chip on Miami’s roster, they will hold out for top dollar in return – because they don’t actually need to trade him, particularly within the division.
The Braves don’t need a catcher until maybe the off-season, so they won’t even be looking at Realmuto before then, though myriad other non-prospect options remain… including re-upping either or both of Suzuki and Flowers while determining whether farm candidates are viable.
In short: don’t expect Realmuto at all.
On Machado:
The Orioles have substantially over-played their hand, and the blame for that lies at the feet of owner Peter Angelos, though Rosenthal himself (ironically) reported in mid-April that the environment may be changing in Baltimore.
Angelos’ sons are apparently taking a more active role in club ownership duties – which the elder Peter seems to think includes ‘meddling with the GM’s job’. This news could at least imply that a more realistic approach to handling a Machado deal could happen this Summer.
Unfortunately for the birds, it’s a bit late for a shift in that stance.
Buster Olney pointed out several days ago that the third base market will be crowded… with more seller than buyers. While a player like Machado is always valuable, we already know that clubs have been playing cautious about using up resources in recent months, so the idea of going big for a 2 month rental – especially when other options exist – is counter-intuitive.
Ergo, the Orioles have almost certainly lost their opportunity for a big payday in trading their third ba– er, shortstop.
This is where the Braves might – underscore “might” – at least check in.
The Dollar Store
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- Atlanta Braves 2023 Preseason Top 30 Prospects List: 16-20
There’s no way that Atlanta would pay top dollar… or even 50 cents on the dollar… for a Machado third base solution down the stretch (and yes, he’d play there for Atlanta, not shortstop). Here’s why:
Absent a cheap deal, it’s actually more likely that Atlanta might promote Austin Riley as a September call-up anyway, thus I’d argue that spending anything for Machado or Moustakas or Donaldson or anybody else makes little sense.
The Orioles may actually be in the position of figuring that their best option for compensation is to keep Machado in order to make him a contractual Qualifying Offer at season’s end and thus gain a compensatory draft pick in 201.
That’s how bad the trade market could be for them.
Certainly Atlanta knows this.
Could it happen? Sure – the Braves will probably call Kansas City, Baltimore, and Toronto and say to each team’s GM “I’ve got an offer of (somebody like an) Anfernee Seymour available to rent your third baseman/shortstop for the last 2 months of the year… call me back if you wanna accept; first come first served”… and then leave it there.
But that’s the ‘due diligence’ part… and reading the market.
Next: Hold your breath on Acuna
Beyond that obvious stuff, there’s absolutely nothing behind Rosenthal’s ‘report’ today.