Atlanta Braves’ trends: which ones are meaningful?

We’re nearing 25% of the 2018 season and at this writing the Braves are 22-14.  What everybody wants to know is this:  where will they be in October?

The trends are good and that’s clearly good news – so far – for the Atlanta Braves.  They are holding the 2nd-best record in the National League, pending the outcome of Friday’s contests.

Already, those who project these kinds of things are raising their full-season assessments of the Braves’ chances for 2018.

Fangraphs, while having raised their estimations from the start of the season, are nonetheless bearish on the Bravos, figuring this team to go just 59-67 from here for an overall 81-81 record.

Let’s take a look at some of these trends and try to make some guesses of our own.

OZZIE ALBIES

As I write this, he just cranked his 12th home run of the year, tying him for the league lead.

Before 2018, he had managed double-digit homers once ever:  that being between AAA and the majors (15 over 131 games) in 2017.

I recall hitters in times’ past such as Andrelton Simmons and Rafael Furcal.  While with Atlanta, Furcal hit for better average, but both had a similar issue:  if they hit a home run, that event actually messed them up for a couple of days as it seemed they were trying to repeat the feat for several ABs afterwards.

I’m not seeing that with Albies.  He appears to have 2 different swings:  one that golfs the baseball to the wall and one that tries to drive the ball up the middle.  He’s using them interchangably with (obviously) great success.

But will pitchers throw him that down-and-in fastball or sinker that he’s routinely depositing in the seats?  I don’t know that they will – especially since the word is out that he’s pretty good.

That said, the season is still long and over 75% of it remains.  He won’t hit 52 (yes – he’s on that pace now), but 30 is a real possibility.