What does 2018 look like, Atlanta Brave fans? Is this team better? What’s the upside? Let’s explore that with some specific questions about the Brave State.
TomahawkTake is occasionally asked to give their assessment of the Atlanta Braves, particularly during the run-up to the start of a season. For the 2nd year, CardsConclave.com has made such a request, and here’s what I told them.
What are your thoughts on the offseason? Did the club improve over the winter?
Kinda. It’s actually a bit difficult to tell (even at this date), because the direction is considerably different from last season.
2018 will be ‘The Year of the Kids’ for Atlanta… Swanson, Albies, and (maybe) Camargo in the infield; Ronald Acuna arriving at some point for the outfield. Aside from Markakis, Freeman, some pitching and the Catchers, the veterans are no longer present.
But that doesn’t mean the team is necessarily better. Over a third of their homers are gone, for example. The rotation will have a lot of inexperience combined with unknown durability (though a lot of options for gap-filling). The bullpen probably can’t be much worse… they will be able to close out games (Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter), though, and that’s clearly good.
The biggest upside may be defensively, particularly on the left side of the field – that’s one of biggest areas of emphasis for Alex Anthopoulos. But the biggest difference-makers could end up being Acuna, Albies, and Swanson. If those 3 can hit to their capabilities (or anything close – I don’t expect Acuna to be an All-Star out of the box), then the Braves will have an improved year.
One more note there: I don’t know that third base is settled yet – does that sound familiar (speaking to Cardinal fans)? Maybe the Cards and Braves should flip a coin… On heads, y’all get Moustakas and we get Neil Walker… Tails: we reverse that.
The 2018 opening rotation will be vastly different than the 2017 one. Who will be the starting five and how successful can they be?
That’s also in flux, but the initial 5 are likely to be Julio Teheran, Brandon McCarthy, Mike Foltynewicz, Luiz Gohara (currently slowed by groin injury), and Sean Newcomb. Next on deck are Scott Kazmir, Max Fried, and Lucas Sims.
Gone are the veteran gap-fillers R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia.
Teheran couldn’t buy a win at home for quite a while in 2017 – if that problem goes away, then there’s a strong improvement right away. Foltynewicz needs to show consistency – we think he may have ace stuff, but that shows in flashes. He tends to have lapses where he’s either very hittable for a while or wild for a while.
McCarthy is a bit of an unknown quantity. He last threw 200 innings in 2014, but he hasn’t been all that good since 2012. The hope is that he can provide some innings to keep Atlanta from having to rely on the rookies so much.
As for Gohara and Newcomb… I do expect very good things from both, but the better bet is Gohara. Newcomb still needs to control the strike zone better. Even in games that he is doing well in, he will occasionally come off the rails for a bit and walk 2 or 3 in a row. Gohara is still getting better, so a 4 ERA is probably the expectation for this season, but he has ‘#1 starter’ written all over him.
Hopefully the improved defense will bolster all of them.
What’s one thing people may overlook (either positively or negatively) about this team?
There’s probably a few things, such as the fact that Atlanta might actually have a running game for the first time in a while. Albies (70 speed), Inciarte, and Swanson can all steal a base for you and all have good instincts on how to go first-to-third. When he gets here, Acuna isn’t slow, either. In a couple of years Crisitian Pache might arrive – he has 70 speed, too. The Braves are going to be fast.
Who is the one key player, the guy that must have a good year for the Braves to do well?
I think they need several, and the real answer will depend on the ultimate lineup construction. At the top could be Albies and Inciarte to set up Freeman. But if there isn’t a threat behind Freeman, then he’ll be pitched around.
So that points to guys like Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers, Kurt Suzuki to earn the respect of the opposing pitchers and be the run-producers. As I say, the home runs are going to be scarce, so these guys have to play gap-to-gap to avoid stranding runners all over. That leads back to the base-running note above.
What’s your projection for 2018? Where does the team wind up overall?
I can see a scenario for 70 wins. I can see a scenario for 90 wins (which would come only with strong pitching, a good free agent third baseman, and another Mets’ meltdown). 75-80 feels about right at this point… I’ll go with 77 and have them battling both the Phils and Mets for 2nd-4th places.
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What’s one question I should have asked and what’s the answer to it?
“Was the off-season a missed opportunity to position this team for 2019 and beyond?”
It was, and that’s laid mostly at the feet of John Coppolella. While I would (and do) beg Alex Anthopoulos to take advantage of this year’s free agent/trade market, it’s really not too fair to ask him to dive in and start his wheeling and dealing.
With him that will come, but he didn’t have much time at all to get up to speed, so AA will mostly be using 2018 as a year to see what he’s really got before starting to ‘go for it’ in 2019.
Next: He's Workin' His Way Back to You, Babe
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