House That Hank Built
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The Atlanta Braves, the Off-Season, and the Coming Mess

By Alan Carpenter

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 22: Tony Clark (L) and Carlos Villanueva listen as Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig speaks at a news conference at MLB headquarters on November 22, 2011 in New York City. Selig announced a new five-year labor agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 22: Tony Clark (L) and Carlos Villanueva listen as Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig speaks at a news conference at MLB headquarters on November 22, 2011 in New York City. Selig announced a new five-year labor agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /
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The Solution

The solution is going to be neither easy, nor quick in coming. Both sides are going to agree to disagree this Winter and transactions will continue to be made in drips and drabs. Many will have to accept less than they wanted or choose to sit on the sidelines (I expect that getting several million dollars over nothing will make that choice for them).

Come 2021, though, expect a huge fight when the new CBA comes up for renegotiation… and you can probably expect a strike/lockout associated with that knock-down-drag-out event. This would likely include new and more militant leadership, since Tony Clark has clearly been playing from (way) behind during this entire cycle.

But the real solution may have to be a complete rewrite of today’s arbitration system… one that served by MLB and the MLB/PA’s members well over multiple decades.

What may have to occur is a system that rewards players earlier in their careers with salaries that can peak in their 29-30 year seasons while expecting dropoffs well into their 30’s.

There are many advantages of such a system:

  • it would reward current production
  • it would make it much easier for teams to keep their own veteran stars around longer
  • it would make it much easier for older players to continue to find work without the pressure of trying to get in that last big deal… since they might already have collected on one such contract by then.

What would it look like?  That’s the $64,000,000 question.  Perhaps a quicker arbitration cycle.  Perhaps a quicker route to free agency.  Perhaps things like the NFL’s “Franchise Tags” to be applied to star players, who then would be guaranteed more money in exchange for a lack of movement elsewhere.

For those who would want to see teams spend a minimum amount of money for salaries, I understand that such a negotiation tactics would then require that a hard salary cap also be brought onto the table, so that’s still not likely.

But for the best young stars:  teams (and players) would have to look at the idea of paying the young studs their $20-30 million deals – per year – in the age 27-31 seasons and then rolling those numbers down afterwards.  Those are numbers dictated by the calendar as athletes age, but it is certainly not what athletes are used to by tradition.

Even in a new scheme, the stars of the game will get paid regardless – just as is already happening today:  Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer: those are your largest current contracts.

I would not anticipate anything changing for the best of the best… witness teams preparing themselves for a run at Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and others for next Winter, for example.

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