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Atlanta Braves could still do another deal with the Dodgers

By Alan Carpenter|
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 01: Yu Darvish #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout after being relieved during the second inning against the Houston Astros in game seven of the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium on November 1, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 01: Yu Darvish #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout after being relieved during the second inning against the Houston Astros in game seven of the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium on November 1, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Rumors today are that Yu Darvish would prefer to reunite with the LA Dodgers… but there’s a cash issue.  The Braves and LA have already helped each other once this Winter; could they do it again?

The biggest question mark might be “who would be involved?”, but the Dodgers are already at the cusp of the MLB Salary Cap (oops: “Luxury Tax Threshold”) and that fact is at the center of this scenario.  The Atlanta Braves and a former LA employee named Anthopoulos already did one big money deal, so…

First off, here’s the rumor:

The specifics are buried in a mailbag Q&A from McCullough:

"Yes. My understanding is that Yu Darvish has made clear he would like to return to the Dodgers, and part of the delay in his free agency is related to waiting to see if the team can move some of the money. The Dodgers have explored scenarios for moving useful but (theoretically) extraneous assets such as Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Given the fact that those players are still Dodgers and Darvish is still a free agent, you can guess how the market has reacted to this gambit by the front office."

In other news, there’s multiple people saying more-or-less the same thing about Darvish and their own teams, so believe what you choose to believe; but frankly, I tend to believe this more about the Dodgers than anybody else except perhaps the Cubs (though they would have the same problem that I’m about to outline).

The Payroll Paradox

The Dodgers’ current projected payroll for 2018 is either $179.6 million or $185.4 million, depending on which tab you look at on this COTS spreadsheet.  The luxury tax threshold is $197 million.

Presumably, Darvish would command something between $24 and $27 million per year (MLBTR predicted 6 years/$160 million, which is $26.66m per season), which would push LA over the “cap”.

Every dollar LA spends above $197 million is taxed at a 50% rate, so a $25 million salary, for example, would actually cost the Dodgers somewhere between an extra $3.5 and $6.5 million, given the current state of their roster.

That’s just something that LA President Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi don’t really want to do.

Enter the Braves

Of the players suggested above by McCullough, I doubt the Braves would normally be interested in any of them.  Grandal is already 29, Forsythe plays second base (we already snagged their utility guy), and Ryu is always hurt.

The fit isn’t exactly perfect, unless LA is in a real giving mood… but we’ll get to that.

The salaries involved are at least not ‘Matt Kemp level’:

  • Forsythe:  $9 million
  • Grandal:  $7.9 million
  • Ryu:  $6 million

All are free agents after 2018.  But suppose the Braves were to acquire one or two of these players… and a prospect?  Here’s some possibilities:

  • Alex Verdugo – 55 grade OF on MLB Pipeline and their 33rd overall player (37th on Baseball America’s chart).  He’s 21 and has “Right Fielder” written all over him:  decent glove, but a cannon for an arm (was once a pitcher).  Oh, and he’s MLB-ready.
  • Keibert Ruiz – 55 grade catcher from Venezuela who carries a decent bat (but not really for power).  He’s most recently seen High-A ball, so that could be a bit far away to consider for a deal like this.
  • Mitchell White – This 2016 RHP draftee ranked 69th on BA’s list; missing from MLB Pipeline.  2.57 ERA in AA… his 3rd level in 2017.  Has strikeout stuff, but not complete control yet – nor a lot of innings.  Fangraphs’ grades think he’s merely average.

Sorry, folks – I think that LA would rather eat the luxury tax than part with top pitching prospect Walker Buehler, so stop drooling over him.

More from Tomahawk Take

But Alex Anthopoulos does know the LA system, and we can’t rule out yet another deal between these clubs to help alleviate their cash flow situation.

So perhaps Grandal, Ryu, and Verdugo… the Braves assume all of the salaries, release the veterans and keep Verdugo, who would have to go onto the 40-man roster.  The Braves could send back somebody relatively inconsequential to balance that roster transaction.

Then the Dodgers sign Yu Darvish.

Of note:  that would put a crimp in Preston Tucker‘s chances of making the team out of Spring Training (or possibly Lane Adams‘ chances), but that’s also why this isn’t entirely a perfect matchup.

Next: Spring Watching

Still – if the Darvish rumor is indeed true, then the Dodgers will be looking to be creative… and it seems we have a creative GM on our hands.

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