Atlanta Braves and the farm system rankings

Alex Anthopoulos firmly stated it this last weekend:  the Braves want to win in the major leagues, not in Baseball America’s web pages.  But you’ve got to have some tools to work with, right?

Baseball America did indeed release their rankings of the farm systems for all 30 organizations, and yes:  the Atlanta Braves are number 1.  And here was that reaction comment:

While I do want to cheer that quote from AA, there is some merit to being in this place at this particular time.

First off, let’s take a quick look at the chart…

• 1st:  Braves (previous years’ ranks: 1, 3, 29, 26)
• 2nd:  Yankees (3, 16, 19, 18)
• 3rd:  Padres (9,25,14,6)
• 4th:  White Sox (5, 23, 20, 24)
• 5th:  Rays (11,13,17,20)
• 6th:  Phillies (6, 8, 22, 22)
• 15th:  Nationals (19, 5, 12, 21)
• 19th:  Marlins (29, 29, 25, 27)
• 27th:  Mets (15, 15, 4, 10)

The worst?  Seattle, then Kansas City and the Cubs (who were #1 in 2015).  Seattle was 2nd in 2013.

Among those “moving” on the chart include the Astros (now 10th, were 4th, 2nd in 2016-17) and the Dodgers (8th after being 2nd , 1st and 3rd in the past 3 surveys).

Of note:  the LA Angels were 30th in 3 of the last four years that BA compiled this list (and 27th in the other year).  Now they are 14th, but that’s almost entirely on the strength of one player:  Shoetai Ohtani.

So there’s two ways to get a high ranking:  (a) one or two really good players (Angels, Blue Jays); or (b) Quantity (Braves, Padres)

There does seem to be a predictive correlation of success in the rankings from 2-4 years ago and current major league outcome.  That suggests 2 things to me:

• It’s good news for Atlanta some time between 2019 and 2022.
• It’s an indicator about how prospects are either being used or being cycled through a system.

All that said, I am seeing… maybe not a red flag, but certainly a yellow flag on the horizon.

Holding Prospects Too Tightly?

In the newest MLB PIpeline Top 100 list, Ronald Acuna is #2 overall.  In Baseball America’s list, he’s #1.  Okay, great.

But now step down through both charts…

• The next Braves to appear for MLB Pipeline are at #30 and 31 (Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka).
• The next on BA’s chart is Luiz Gohara at 23… with Soroka at 27.

It’s the gap that has me concerned just a bit… with the rest of the Braves’ Top 10 scattered in both lists down throughout the rest of each group’s Top 100.

We like to beat up Callis and Mayo for their rankings, but BA tends to be held in higher reverence.  Yet both seem to be suggesting something in common this year:  while Ronald Acuna is an impact talent, the rest in the Braves’ system might be at a significant tier below that.

There is obviously some disagreement among rival evaluators:  for example, Austin Riley is either a Top 50 guy or not even in the Top 100, depending on how some see him.

But here’s the punchline:  how likely is a guy likely to be an ‘impact player’ if he’s closer to #100 than #1?

As usual, the answer to that question lies with the evaluator, but it’s also helpful to check into some history.

Here’s a link to the 2013, 2012, and 2011 Top 100 lists from Baseball America and here are the best “Bottom 50” names I dug up (you might quibble with some included or some not included, but the best of the group are certainly here):

• Nolan Arenado (52, 2013, 80/2011)
• Noah Syndergaard (54, 2013)
• Jedd Gyorko (71/2013, 98/2012)
• Adam Eaton (73, 2013)
• Marcell Ozuna (75, 2013)
• Michael Wacha (76, 2013)
• Didi Gregorius (80, 2013)
• Yordano Ventura (85, 2013)
• Jake Odorizzi (92/2013, 68/2012, 69/2011)
• Matt Harvey (54, 2012)
• Jean Segura (55/2012, 57/2011)
• Xander Bogaerts (58, 2012)
• George Springer (59, 2012)
• Javier Baez (61, 2012)
• Dellin Betances (63, 2012)
• Sonny Gray (65, 2012)
• Zack Cozart (75, 2012)
• Gary Sanchez (81, 2012)
• Jonathan Schoop (82, 2012)
• Chris Archer (89, 2012)
• Andrelton Simmons (92, 2012)
• Jason Kipnis (54, 2011)
• Miguel Sano (60, 2011)
• Devin Mesoraco (64, 2011)
• Danny Duffy (68, 2011)
• Yonder Alonso (73, 2011)
• Anthony Rizzo (75, 2011)
• Craig Kimbrel (86, 2011)

That’s a bunch of names… but certainly not 150 names over the 3 years noted.  Baseball America seems to have a reasonable track record of identifying talent, and I can definitely say that their Top 50 names are much more recognizable for major league production than the Bottom 50 over this period.  That should tell us something.

So let’s wrap this up:  in short, yes:  Anthopoulos is right… the prospect wars are not going to win major league games.  Some prospects will help that happen.  Many will bust.  Even some of the very best.

Still, it’s better to have a handful of prospects than not… after all of it’s a coin flip on whether they develop into useful major leaguers, then you definitely want to be flipping more coins than your rivals.

Next: Acuna Likely to Start 2018 in Stripes

The trick?  Guessing correctly on the ones to keep and the ones to trade.  But in the meantime… don’t fret too much if Anthopoulos decides to trade off your favorite prospect.