Atlanta Braves Mike Soroka is outpitching his scouting report

It feels like it has taken a long time for Braves’ pitcher Mike Soroka to get his due from prospect watchers.  Then you realize he’s still just 20½ years old.

MLBPipeline.com is set to reveal their Top 100 prospects list tonight, and they teased it with an interview that included Atlanta Braves right-hander Mike Soroka.

In it, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo noted how passionate we are as Braves’ fans about how high or low “our guys” are being ranked in lists such as theirs.  We did give them a considerable amounts of grief after last year’s chart was released, true.  As for this year’s edition … well, we’ll just have to wait and see.

But they did allow that the Canadian-born Soroka is in their “top third”.  They made Mike guess, and he went with the conservative answer of 33, said to be “close”.

What is annoying is that they didn’t even place Soroka in their list of Top 10 right-handed pitchers.

Let’s do a quick stats comparison here… for which I will use the Rays’ Brent Honeywell.  He was the 4th-best right-hander by their reckoning. First, let’s check Honeywell, who will be 23 years old when the season starts:

• Played in similar leagues, Southern league for AA
• 121 A+ innings, ERA dropped from 3.44 (2015) to 2.41 (2016).  26 BB, 117K
• 72 AA innings, ERA dropped from 2.28 in 2016 to 2.08 (2017, just 13 innings).  18BB, 73K
• 123.2 AAA innings in 2017:  ERA 3.64 with 31BB and 152K.
• Opponent batting averages:  .232 to .210 between A+ stints; .231 in most AA innings, .266 in AAA.

Guessing MLBPipeline is looking hard at those 152 strikeouts and less at the WHIP that jumped from around 1.00 to 1.30 once hitting AAA.

Now Soroka, who hasn’t seen AAA as yet, but could start there in April being one of the youngest pitchers there.  We already knew of his athletic ability, but here’s how he uses that:

• 2016:  Low A Rome – 143 innings, 32BB, 125K.  .143 hitting against average. 3.02 ERA
• Skipped High A
• 2017:  AA Mississippi – 153.2 innings, 34BB, 125K, .228 avg.  2.75 ERA

So at 19-20 years old, Soroka is pitching more and results at least comparable to Honeywell.

But those pesky MLB scouting grades….

• BH: FB 60 / Screwball 65 / Curve 45 / Slider 55 / Change 60 / Control 60:  Final 60
• MS:  FB 60 / Curve 55 / Change 55 / Control 55 :  Final 55

So he’s apparently downgraded for having no slider (we’ll grant Honeywell the screwball), but certainly that control has always been there for Soroka – his walk rates per nine innings are actually in the Greg Maddux range.

Callis did allow that Soroka is on the edge of their RHP Top 10 – see this in response to a question about the (non-)placement of Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Ian Anderson)

Soroka was among those getting the Golden Ticket spring training invitation as a non-roster player this week.  That’s good.  It will give him a chance to compete against some major league talent and the new front office a chance to see how he handles that.

MLB has a youtube compilation of Soroka’s efforts on the mound (below).  What is telling about this video are these points:

• Spotting the fastball – seemingly anywhere he wants to put it.
• Baffling hitters – things like ‘funny swings’ and ‘shaking heads’ are commonplace.
• ‘Downhill pitching’ with simple mechanics – helped out by his 6-5 stature, high arm delivery, and burying his pitches down in the zone.

From the MLBPipeline interview, there was this noteworthy exchange, with emphasis added:

One thing that I know with my fastball, even though the radar may not say as much, in talking to a lot of guys that have been there for a long time, and there’s almost this unknown presence to a well-intended fastball with 100 percent conviction that is just immeasurable. I’ve always kind of chased that as opposed to a number on the radar gun. That extra life on the baseball that you can’t see necessarily from the stands. It’s something that hitters say they just don’t see. Some call it an invisi-ball. I think if I can keep that intent with my fastball, the numbers don’t really matter to me

That is a great reason to really like this kid.

In their last MLB Pipeline list after the June draft, Soroka was seeded 4th among the Braves, 34th overall, and the 10th right-hander overall at that point.  While he continued to dominate in AA and did nothing to discourage those rankings, it sounds like he’s been displaced by other newcomers (Shohei Ohtani, to name one).

But that’s okay… we actually shouldn’t mind having “our kids” fly under the radar a bit.

Next: Out from Left Field

Everybody will know the real story when they consistently beat other teams.