Atlanta Braves have I don’t know on third

Is Johan Camargo the Atlanta Braves third baseman to start 2018?
Is Johan Camargo the Atlanta Braves third baseman to start 2018? /
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Johan Camargo the Atlanta Braves third baseman to start 2018?
Johan Camargo the Atlanta Braves third baseman to start 2018? /

Matt Kemp’s trade changed many things for the Atlanta Braves but the question of opening day third baseman is still unresolved.

Kemp’s departure opened the door for changes in the Atlanta Braves lineup, adding a starter and opening an outfield spot. While there are multiple options for that outfield job, the question of who plays third base is as yet unresolved

Adonis Garcia is off to Korea, leaving Johan Camargo as the most likely candidate and Rio Ruiz with another chance to grab it. Unlike Alan, I have no doubt Camargo can handle defensive duties at the hot corner. Whether his bat is up to the job is another subject entirely.

Break out season or simply lucky

It’s easy to see why the fans enjoy seeing Camargo play.  He leaves it all on the field every game, makes playing infield defense look easy and has a cannon for an arm. Camargo also produced the best offense of his professional career, something that convinced many he should be this year’s starter at third. Closer scrutiny of his offense however, shows that what we saw last year probably isn’t what we should expect this year.

Camargo managed only 256 PA – 241 AB – amounting to a little more than one-third of a full season’s PA. That makes sample size a critical factor when evaluating his season.  His traditional {BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) line of .299/.331/.452/.783, .330 wOBA and 102 wRC+ came as a result of a .364 BAbip. Diving a bit deeper into his year we can see his year really has three separate pieces.

Numbers please

He began the year as the utility man and from 4/11 through 6/14 managed only 32 PA in 16 games. He became an everyday player on June 16 and in the 31 game stretch end July 22 picked up 115 PA.  From that point forward he came to the plate 109 times in another 31 games.

  Part 1 Part 2 Part 3
PA 32 115 109
BB% 3.1% 3.5% 6.4%
K% 28.1% 19.1% 18.3%
AVG .226 .339 .277
OBP .250 .360 .324
SLG .355 .505 .426
OPS .605 .864 .750
ISO .129 .165 .149
BABIP .318 .414 .321
wRC 2 18 13
wRAA -2.1 4.3 -0.2
wOBA .243 .365 .319
wRC+ 44 124 94

In part one he had few consistent PA so I’ll ignore that. Parts 2 and 3 cover the same number of games and virtually the same number of PA. His BA dropped 63 points, OBP  dropped 36 and while his slugging remained above 400, it dropped too, 73 points . All of that’s directly attributable to the 93 point drop in BAbip.

In his minor league career above rookie ball,  Camargo’s highest OBP, wOBA and wRC+ stats in full season play were .320, .315 and 96. His highest ever minor league full season (491 PA) OPS – .683 – and BAbip – .317 – came in 2016 at Gwinnett.