Writing for The Athletic, former GM Jim Bowden went through the list of best free agents still available… and his choice for Atlanta is not helpful.
Don’t stop me… even though you’ve heard this one already. The Atlanta Braves still need a third baseman.
Duh. That’s pretty much been the case since Chipper Jones retired.
But some from all corners (well, including us) want to help resolve that. Some ideas are less helpful than others.
Here’s Jim Bowden’s thoughts on the subject (via The Athletic, subscription required):
"The Braves do not have interest in Moustakas and instead are focusing on stop-gap third basemen like free agents Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez as they wait for top prospect Austin Riley to arrive. That is a mistake. Moustakas would fit great in that ballpark and his defense would be phenomenal in developing their young pitching staff. The Braves could always package Riley with a couple of their pitching prospects to land either Christian Yelich and/or J.T. Realmuto in a trade with the Marlins. Those type of moves would expedite the Braves return to contention."
I disagree. Let me explain the reasons:
- Defensive performance.
Moustakas was credited with an underwhelming 2.2 fWAR in 2017… despite a career-high 38 homers… roughly 75% higher than he’d ever done in the majors, and a .272 batting average.
The problems? He doesn’t walk and – based on the metrics – doesn’t provide nearly the kind of defense that Bowden crowed about.
In 2017, he scored a -8 Defensive Runs Saved score… and had been hovering around zero in that category since a freaky-high 14 in 2012. Had he lost a step at age 29? It would seem so… the fielding numbers are down across the board.
- Contract
Bowden’s estimate: $15.5 million per year for 5 seasons. At least that’s down from MLBTR’s prior estimate of $17 million per year… though they picked the Braves to ink him, too.
But this deal would be a recipe for disaster for the Braves unless Moustakas could be counted upon for the kind of production – offensive and defensive – that he’d produced in 2012 or 2015 (3.4, 3.7 fWAR respectively).
- Age
He will be 29½ when the next season starts. You really want to engage him in a 5-year deal?
I do have to give him props for being able to come back full time after tearing an ACL early in the 2016 season… but that’s also the source of my concern on his mobility in the field.
There was also another knee issue late last season, so all that may be conspiring to make suitors wary this Winter.
- Offensive…change?
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Okay, there’s the emergence of 38 homers in 2017. Fangraphs pegged the reasons for this as a result of just… outright aggression at the plate. Forget being patient. Forget trying to use all fields. Just hammer the ball.
I’ll stop for a moment to suggest that doing so in Atlanta would be a good thing for the Braves with that short-ish porch in right field. The H&F Burger shop would not be safe.
But the question that the scouts and evaluators will have to answer is this one: is that truly the new Moustakas? Has he found a Tyler-Flowers-esque renaissance in his swing game?
If so… great. But I’d have to think long and hard before thinking that would last over 5 more years.
Choices
Look – the Braves do need some help at third base… that much is clear. But if you’re going to commit big dollars to a free agent, it had better be the result of reasonable confidence that there will be sustained performance over a number of years.
Next: Dear Voters: There are 2 Worthy Jones' on the Ballot
I don’t see that here. The mistake isn’t going to be showing no interest in Moose… it would be in making the commitment with other, cheaper options available today that don’t preclude moves that could prove to be better long-term solutions in the future.