Atlanta Braves, Miami and why Ronald Acuna will stay with Atlanta

There’s a lot of sentiment in the industry that Ronald Acuna would be the key to acquiring Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto.  There are multiple real good reasons why that wouldn’t happen – except in one possible scenario.

We are told that the Atlanta Braves are interested in obtaining outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins.  We were also told that the Braves would be good with getting catcher J.T. Realmuto from them, too.  So the predictable speculation has started.

In a story yesterday for The Athletic (subscription required), Ken Rosenthal penned the following words on the subject, while urging Miami to consider trading both Yelich and Realmuto now (though I will limit most of this discussion to Yelich alone):

"“…the Marlins want the best prospects they can acquire; one rival executive says that for Yelich they are trying to beat what the White Sox obtained from the Boston Red Sox for Sale.“Ridiculous? Not really. Sale at the time of his trade was a year older than Yelich is now and under control for three years, $38 million, as opposed to Yelich’s five years, $58.25 million. Sale brought the White Sox two elite prospects (infielder Yoan Moncada and pitcher Michael Kopech) and two lesser ones (outfielder Luis Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz).”"

For the Braves, that quite literally points to Ronald Acuna and (pick one) Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Luiz Gohara, or Joey Wentz.

Rosenthal goes on though, to suggest that a better comp might be the trade of Adam Eaton to Washington last year, which sent Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the White Sox.  That’s probably closer to the Braves’ level of thinking, though Rosenthal suggests that the Marlins could argue Yelich – as a player with more power – should garner a bigger return than that.

Then there’s this from a reporter who ought to know:  Joe Frisaro, who is the MLB.com beat writer for the Marlins:

He also writes this:

"Atlanta’s top prospect Ronald Acuna, an outfielder rated No. 6 on the Top 100 list, would be a focus for Miami for either Yelich or Realmuto."

So Here’s What They’re Missing

I admit being reticent to critique the words of reporters who know the game as part of their livelihood.  But there’s multiple reasons why the Braves would not – and probably would not need – to give up Acuna in such a trade… at least assuming that the primary target is actually Yelich.

• Acuna is Yelich… and almost certainly more… and he’s essentially major-league-ready.

If Acuna was still in A ball, then that would be a different story… though we might have been grousing about that if he had been dealt away a year ago.

Defensively, you could argue that either could be at least near to Gold Glove level.  On the offensive side, there’s certainly reasonable projection still left in both players – with the ‘upside’ bonus going to Acuna.  That’s especially true since he’s still barely 20 years old.  Certainly, though, while Yelich is an offensive threat in his prime, Acuna’s bat seems to know no bounds.

So why would you deal Acuna (and more) for Yelich?  There’s no point from the Braves’ point of view, since they will probably have that kind of production at whatever point they wish to promote him.

I’m not the only one who has figured this out:

O’Brien may be underselling Yelich a tad, but the point is valid regardless.

• The Marlins need pitching in the worst way

Frisaro mentions a need for right-handed power, but also ‘pitching’.  In fact, it’s pretty hard to underestimate the pitching need – which starts at the major league level and continues on down.

Gee, I think I’ve heard that Atlanta might have some of that laying around under the couch cushions in the lobby of their offices or something.

• Acuna might be on the Marlins’ schedule, but not necessarily.

If Acuna hits the majors in 2018 (likely) and is delayed on entry for a couple of weeks, then while the Fish would have him through 2024, you’d think that they would want to have a rebuild completed in time for him to share in new success.

Probably the earliest that the Marlins could be competitive again will be 2021, and that’s a guess on the optimistic side.  Such a date doesn’t rule out Acuna’s participation in a rebound, but it does personally make me wonder if perhaps a player deeper in the minors might be a better option for them.

• If nobody offers a Top 5 player, then what are the Marlins’ option anyway?  Pull back two disgruntled players and not trade them at all?  Maybe… but that doesn’t help them one whit.  So they need to have a ‘come to Jesus’ moment in considering how to pull this off.

Who Would Offer Better?

The Marlins want an overpay or nothing, but with the number of teams inquiring, I suspect that they will get that overpay … but from whom?  And for who in return?

Let’s check the current list of the best prospects in baseball – by the reckoning of MLB Pipeline.

• Shohei Ohtani.  Well he’s not going anywhere, and besides that, the Angles (a) have a decent outfield already, and (b) have no farm system to speak of.
• Gleyber Torres.  With Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Brett Gardner – plus aspirations on Bryce Harper in 2019 – why even inquire?
• Victor Robles.  The Nationals’ problem in giving him up is the same as the Braves’ issue with Acuna:  there’s simply no point.
• Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.  Maybe… except that Josh Donaldson is about to be a free agent and the Blue Jays have to decide whether they are actually rebuilding.  If so, then he’s a (re-)building block.
• Eloy Jimenez.  The White Sox are rebuilding, and he was a keep acquisition as part of that.  As such, they aren’t after Yelich.
• Acuna.  I can’t believe MLB Pipeline has him at 6th.
• Brendan Rodgers.  So far, he’s the first one I’d think might be available to the Marlins.. but is Yelich even being pursued by the Rockies?
• Kyle Tucker.  Houston could use a CF, so if they think Yelich can fit that bill, then this could make some sense since Tucker projects more as a corner guy.  But he also bats lefty.
• Nick Senzel.  I don’t think the Reds would go after Yelich, nor would they part with Senzel.
• Michael Kopech.  See Jimenez, above.

Teams definitely interested include the Phillies, Nationals, and Braves.   I’ll probably throw in the Cardinals as well, though their willingness to add pitcher Alex Reyes is probably nil… he didn’t get dealt for Ozuna, after all.  In case you’re thinking about their Carson Kelly, that’s not going to fly either – even for Realmuto.

The two teams that – in my thinking – could rival the Braves in terms of readiness and willingness to deal would be the Padres and Phillies.

The Phils have money to spend and prospects to deal – although only one Top 100 pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez (high-A in 2017, but actually has control of the strike zone).

The Padres would seem to match up a little better, with 5 Top 100 pitchers… but no power hitters to speak of.

So What Might Actually Work?

The only scenario in which I think Ronald Acuna *might* – and I underscore that word for particular emphasis – be available is if both Yelich and Realmuto were in the deal to the Braves… but I would not anticipate that happening.

Alex Anthopoulos is all about blockbuster deals, but this would be over the top, in my humble opinion.

But for the Marlins to accept a deal for Christian Yelich from Atlanta, it would have to consist of a group like this:

• Sean Newcomb
• Ian Anderson
• Austin Riley
• Cristian Pache
• Touki Toussaint

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That’s 3 young pitchers, a power-hitter 3B, and a defensive stud for their future outfield.  All of these players are, have been, or will be Top 100 prospects (Toussaint depending on who’s doing the grading).

That’s a return that the Braves could probably live with sending away (grudgingly, perhaps), and one that Miami could sleep well with as this group meets all of their known goals.

Is it an overpay?  That probably depends on personal points of view.  The real question is whether the evaluators think that Christian Yelich is enough of an impact player to spend that much prospect capital to acquire.

Next: Luke Lands in Stripes

But in total.. there’s almost no way that the Braves would even consider offering Acuna for Yelich… and it’s probable that the Marlins already know and understand the reasoning behind it.

Hopefully Joe Frisaro figures that out, too.