Atlanta Braves: The New Year is looking mighty bright!
Since Alex Anthopoulos took over as the Atlanta Braves GM, things have been looking very bright since former GM John Coppolella left Atlanta on the naughty list.
After seeing that Alex Anthopoulos has a penchant for using top prospects in blockbuster deals, you might be getting a bit concerned about some of the current Atlanta Braves. I can understand that… so let’s talk a bit about the future, trade value, and impact of current players on the Atlanta Braves roster.
1.) Ender Inciarte
Inciarte is one of the several players that fit into the Atlanta Braves long term plans. There were some suggestions that the Braves should trade Ender, as sparked by MLB scout and ESPN writer, Keith Law.
Just because Ronald Acuña can play center field does not mean Atlanta should get rid of Inciarte so Acuña can play CF. Law has an valid point that Inciarte has value in a trade scenario, but there are several other players with value on the Atlanta’s roster. Also, Law made this comment when John Coppolella was still the GM, and things have changed, A LOT, since then.
The Braves would first need things to fall in place before contemplating the decision to trade away a 200-hit player who is also a back-to-back Gold Glove winner in center field.
Braves new GM Alex Anthopoulos has stated that he highly values defensive skill, so trading away a center fielder with the skill set that Inciarte possesses has a low likelihood of happening. The only way Inciarte is traded is if an offer is too good to say no to.
Here is a list of Braves CF organized by their highest # of hits in a single season, and their # of Gold Gloves in CF (if they received any):
- Ender Inciarte (201 H in 2017) 2x GG with ATL
- Andruw Jones (199 H in 2000) 10x GG with ATL
- Dale Murphy (185 H in 1985) 5x GG with ATL
- Michael Bourn (171 H in 2012) 2x GG, without ATL
- Kenny Lofton (164 H in 1997) 4x GG, NO GG with ATL
- Cameron Maybin (135 H in 2015)
- Melvin Upton Jr. (108 H in 2014)
- Gregor Blanco (108 H in 2008)
- Marquis Grissom (106 H in 1996) 4x GG – 2x GG with ATL
- Deion Sanders (92 H in 1992)
- Nate McLouth (87 H in 2009)
Inciarte will already go down as one of the more prominent center fielders in Braves franchise history (outside of Andruw Jones and Dale Murphy) after playing ONLY 2 years in Atlanta. I say let Inciarte keep building his legacy not only as one of the top center fielders in the Braves franchise, but one of the more notable center fielders of this decade.
Inciarte is making a name for himself in the world of baseball, and boy is it fun to see him do it in a Braves uniform. He has shown some extra pop in his bat as he hit more home runs in 2017 than he did combined from 2014-2016. Yes, the short porch in right field at SunTrust Park has helped him and other Braves players knock a few extra homers, but more home runs is something to take note of regardless of stadium design.
With the number of hits Inciarte can tally combined with his speed, having a top-of-the-order of Inciarte and Albies is going to be a great asset for scoring runs. Having Inciarte get on base with the threat of the steal followed by a pitchers reluctance to throw a decent pitch to Albies will be a dangerous weapon for the Braves to possess. Not to mention that after having these 2 go up to bat, then the pitcher will have to deal with Freddie Freeman.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 15: Second baseman Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves throws to first base in the ninth inning during the game against the New York Mets at SunTrust Park on September 15, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
2.) Ozzie Albies
The Braves have no rhyme or reason to get rid of Ozzie Albies. The future of the second base position in Atlanta lies with Albies, not with Camargo or Culberson.
With some help from Ron Washington, Albies improved his defense. Albies also showed quite some pop with his bat as well. With his 5’9, 160lb frame, it’s a shock that he managed to smack 6 home runs in two months of playing in the bigs. But what is even more shocking is that those home runs were not short home runs by any stretch of the imagination. According to ESPN’s Home Run tracker, here are the distances of each home run hit by Albies in 2017:
- 1). 08/03/17 – 403ft vs Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2). 8/11/17 – 406ft vs St. Luis Cardinals
- 3). 9/12/17 – 394ft vs. Washington Nationals
- 4). 9/14/17 – 390ft vs. Washington Nationals
- 5). 9/24/17 – 373ft vs. New York Mets
- 6). 9/29/17 – 397ft vs. Miami Marlins
The little kid has got some big time pop, which should do nothing but get bigger. The youngster also has some big time speed after snagging 8 bases and getting caught once in a 2-month span last year.
After keeping up with his social media in the off season, and as some of you may have seen in a recent post by Jeff Schafer here on Tomahawk Take, Albies has been putting on a bit more weight and muscle, so perhaps his power and speed might even increase in 2018.
3.) Freddie Freeman
Freeman is the type of ballplayer you build a franchise around, and that is exactly what Atlanta is doing with Freddie. Atlanta is in a rebuild, and trading away one of the the main infrastructures of that rebuild will only prolong the completion date.
Despite the wrist injury that sidelined him for 7 weeks, Freeman still led the team in several categories: 28 HRs, .307 batting average, .403 OBP, .586 SLG, and a .989 OPS. This kind of superstardom is something that you hold onto, not something you let go of, especially when your rebuild is almost complete.
As long as Freeman stays healthy in 2018, you can expect him to be making a trip to Nationals Park for the All Star game, and potentially for the Home Run Derby as well.
Wait, Freeman to the Home Run derby?!
Possibly, yes. In case you don’t remember, on May 16, 2017, Freeman hit his 14th Home Run of the season in Toronto, which put him over Aaron Judge on the MLB season leaderboard for the most HR’s, at the time. But as fate would have it, in the very next series against the very same Blue Jays at SunTrust Park, Freeman suffered the wrist injury that put him on the DL until July 4. As long as Freeman is healthy for 2018, he is going to have a career year.
4.) Dansby Swanson
Swanson had a rough start to his MLB career, and a rough start is no legitimate reason to trade away a player with Swanson’s value. The stellar middle infield defense Swanson and Albies can put together will be what Atlanta needs, and yep, you guessed it, Alex Anthopoulos’ high emphasis on defense will likely prevent the departure of Swanson, for now.
There has been some talk on the Braves Twitter-verse about getting rid of Swanson and creating a middle infield of Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies. Using Swanson as a trade chip would undoubtedly bring some big talent to Atlanta, but giving Swanson the boot after only 1 full year of MLB service could be the wrong move.
I would hate to see Swanson go somewhere else and thrive just like Andrelton Simmons is doing with the Los Angeles Angels.
After Swanson got called back up to the major leagues post-demotion, he held his own very well:
49 G, 164 AB, 23 R, 44 H, 9 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 24 BB, 36 K, .313/.376/.371/.747
The month of September was rough for him, but he still managed to get through the month while being very productive not only in the field, but at the plate as well. I’m sure Swanson will turn things around in 2018, but maybe not to the level we all aspire him to be just yet. I feel like he will reach his full potential in the next few years, but just not in 2018.
5.) Luiz Gohara
The young version of C.C. Sabathia has no reason to be traded, and here are some obvious reasons why:
The only qualifying starting pitchers in 2017 with a FIP that was below 3 were Chris Sale (2.45), Corey Kluber (2.50), Stephen Strasburg (2.72), and Max Scherzer (2.90). The only non-qualifying left handed starting pitcher with a FIP below 3? Your’s truly: Luiz Gohara (2.75).
Also, according to Statcast, Gohara is among James Paxton and Chris Sale as the only left handed starting pitchers to throw 25 or more fastballs that were 97mph+ in a single game since 2015.
Seeing the 21 year old put himself into this type of company should get you excited for Gohara’s future. Gohara is a rather aggressive pitcher as his first-pitch-strike percentage is 61.8%.
His specialty combo is his fastball that averages at 97mph (thrown 56.9% of the time) combined with a hard slider that averages at 84.2mph (thrown 34.2% of the time). Gohara has the stuff, and it’s going to be very fun to see him put it all together for a full season in 2018.
6.) Sean Newcomb
The pitcher acquired in the Andrelton Simmons trade is proving that he belongs in the big leagues. The trading of Simmons is one that some people still dislike, and I can’t say I‘m not one of them. With the amount of pitching talent Atlanta has, Max Fried could have easily been in Newcomb’s current rotation spot.
For the sake of ‘What If’s”, if Atlanta still had Simmons, the Braves would currently be in a great spot if they acquired Jake Lamb instead of Dansby Swanson in the Shelby Miller trade. Instead, we have Newcomb for the rotation, and there is nothing wrong with that at all!
Newcomb is a great strikeout pitcher and a future star on the mound. One of the needs that Atlanta has is a pitcher that can consistently get strikeouts: ATL ranked #20/30 ballclubs for pitching strikeouts with 1,258 in 2017. Having Newcomb pitch for a full season should bump those numbers up a fair amount in 2018.
Also with Newcomb’s southpaw arm in addition to Gohara’s, Atlanta now eliminates the necessity for left handed starters that they once had around the time of the Jamie Garcia acquisition in December of 2016.
7.) Mike Foltynewicz
Folty’s fastball has been supreme for a few years and now that he is developing his off speed pitches, he is turning into a great starting pitcher. If for some reason the starting gig doesn’t work out for Folty, I would personally like to see what kind of damage he could do out of the bullpen.
What Folty can do today in 6+ innings is phenomenal, and I think it would be fun to see how dominant he could be if his talent was compacted into 1 or 2 innings. Folty would remind me of Hunter Strickland in the bullpen, but this DOES NOT mean that a reliever is the future I see, or want, for Folty.
His pitch percentages (meaning the percentage of times he throws a specific pitch) have been changing over the years, which shows he is developing into an overall better pitcher:
His fastball% dropped from 49.2% in 2014 to 33.8% in 2017, and his slider% increased from 13.9% in 2015 to 21.5% in 2017.
I think if Folty increased his changeup and curveball percentages, he would be an even better pitcher. His changeup % went on a constant decline from 10.8% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2017, while his curveball % did the same thing from 16.3% in 2014 to 11.9% in 2017.
When talking about trading Folty, the Braves would get more long term value out of him by keeping him for the rotation rather than trading him away. Many teams value Folty because of his fastball (especially The New York Yankees), and Atlanta could capitalize on that value if they felt inclined to. But there is no reason to get rid of Folty.
Folty is developing and showing signs of becoming one of the best starting pitchers the Atlanta Braves have had in a while. Since Atlanta is so close to being playoff contenders, they should hold onto Folty and let him develop into a quality starting pitcher.
All of the above players fit into the immediate future and long-term success of the Atlanta Braves.
Trading away any of these pieces right now could hinder the long-term success of the Atlanta Braves. If there is a trade that’s too good to say no too, I fully expect, and hope, Anthopolous will pull the trigger. Now let’s talk about players that may NOT fit into the immediate future or success of the Atlanta Braves.
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1.) Nick Markakis
Markakis is likely to get moved to Left Field when Ronald Acuña gets called up to the major league club. If not that, you could look for Markakis to get traded as the Braves are taking a chance on the recently acquired right handed, power-hitting outfielder Preston Tucker.
The last aging outfielder remaining on the Braves roster is likely to be traded away very soon to help the Braves make one more successful step forward in their rebuild.
If the Braves decide to keep Markakis for the 2018 season, it is not going to be a bad thing. Markakis has played an average of 158 games per season with the Braves, and has averaged 168 hits per season with the Braves.
Markakis is a consistent outfielder not just offensively, but defensively as well. He is nowhere the defensive liability that Matt Kemp was, and is the textbook definition of a ballplayer on both sides of the ball. Keeping someone with his experience on the team will be more of a good thing than a bad thing.
2.) Julio Teheran
Teheran is having struggles in the new ballpark, but giving him the boot after one bad season is something I think you let Teheran try to work out. If that doesn’t work, then give him the boot:
- April – 3.38 ERA
- May – 6.12 ERA
- June – 6.35 ERA
- July – 4.45 ERA
- August – 3.65 ERA
- September – 3.19 ERA
- 5.28 ERA first 3 months
- 3.76 ERA last 3 months
Due to Teheran’s second half performance, I think it’s too early to give up on the #1 starter in the rotation (arguably #2 as compared to Folty). Looking to trade Teheran right now is fully understandable as he still has some value.
Teheran will turn 27 in 2018, and already has 7 years of MLB experience. He will be pitching in the major leagues for many years to come, and has 3 years left on his contract with the Braves. He has been to 2 All Star games, and has 3 full seasons of 30+ games pitched with an ERA under 3.21 (2013 – 3.20, 2014 – 2.89, 2016 – 3.21).
It is highly likely that he will have a turnaround season in 2018 after his poor 2017 season, which is why I shy away at the idea of trading him anytime soon. The 2019 season will likely be the season that the Braves will be legitimate contenders for the playoffs, and I don’t feel too comfortable trading away someone with Teheran’s skillset and ability.
Teheran had a 5.86 ERA AT SunTrust Park and had a 3.14 ERA AWAY from SunTrust Park in 2017. Teheran made significant progress in the last 3 months of the season, pitching for a 3.76 ERA, showing that he can improve.
Similar to when a pitcher has to work out of a jam when they put runners on base, I think Atlanta should let Teheran work himself out of this jam where he struggles at home.
3.) Scott Kazmir
With his recent hip injury, Kazmir is a bit of a two-way street for the Atlanta Braves. There is no reason to really expect Atlanta to trade Kazmir unless he makes a comeback, proves to be dominant, and a team needs someone like Kazmir, especially since his contract ends after the 2018 season.
Unless that happens, Kazmir should take over a bullpen position as the current rotation is full of players with more talent and potential than Kazmir. In the 3 years before Kazmir’s hip injury in 2017, he hurled a 3.74 ERA in 29.7 games per season as a starter.
With the Braves, the likelihood of Kazmir being a starter would be very low considering the current 5-man rotation the Braves will be rolling with at the start of 2018: Teheran, Folty, Newcomb, Gohara, and McCarthy.
Max Fried would likely be the 6th man of the rotation if someone gets injured. However, depending on Kazmir’s performance and success in Spring Training, Kazmir could be that 6th man while Fried pitches out of the pen or goes back to the Gwinnett Stripers.
So what is the Braves next move?
Be patient, and wait! But be proactive as well. The Braves should limit the amount of moves, and the type of moves they make before and during the 2018 season. The Braves have almost all of their pieces in order, and those pieces just have to fall together, which is the main purpose for the 2018 season.
Next: Atlanta Braves have checked in with Marlins about Yelich
The additional pieces the Braves will need in their rebuild will be relief pitching (which is scary as the cost of relief pitchers is extremely high right now), a left fielder, and hopefully someone like a third basemen by the name of Manny Machado during the 2019 free agency.