Atlanta Braves: Would trading Ender Inciarte for Ian Happ make sense?

The Cubs have some serious competition in the NL Central. The Cardinals have just put together what may be the best outfield in the National League, and Chicago needs an answer if they want to keep up with the Cards in 2018.

First and foremost, I want to be the first to say that I was against trading Ender Inciarte three months ago. He does fit well with into the Atlanta Braves‘ future plans, and his five years of club control are certainly appealing.

However, after careful thought and the omission of any sentimental value Inciarte may hold, trading him for the right guy could do a number of things for the Braves. That ‘right guy’ might just be Ian Happ.

The Cubs seem like a great fit for Ender, as they need to improve their outfield desperately in order to keep up with the Cardinals’ monster trio of Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler… and their center field position has the most need at this point… never mind that they don’t have a traditional leadoff hitter.

What makes this situation even more interesting is the fact that the Cubs had shown interest in Inciarte since he was a Diamondback, back in 2015.  Also, right after the Braves acquired Inciarte, the Cubs were said to have contacted Atlanta about him.

So, why Ian Happ? I’ll tell you why.

Albies needs to lead off.

Ozzie Albies is our lead-off man of the future, right? Well, why not get him the opportunity to do so as soon as possible? Call me crazy, but I’d bet money that Albies will eventually be an even better lead-off hitter than Inciarte has been for the Atlanta Braves.

This year, Ozzie showed that he can handle hitting at the top of the lineup. In 26 games (105 AB) batting 2nd, Albies slashed a respectable .295/.364/.429 with seven extra-base hits and 14 runs scored.  That’s exactly what you want from a guy leading off, and if Albies can do it batting second, he can do it just as well leading off.

Acuña can move to centerfield.

Since fans on Twitter realized that Ronald Acuña and Ender Inciarte may have to share an outfield, there’s been a lot of back-and-forth about who should play where in the outfield. While either one could play just about any outfield position comfortably, another way to fix the issue would be to trade Inciarte and give centerfield to Acuña.

Ronald Acuña’s defense has been widely praised since his emergence as one of baseball’s top prospects, and while he’s got a cannon of an arm built for right field, his athleticism and defensive instincts could make him as elite of a CF as Inciarte is now.

In all honesty, an outfield of Happ, Acuña, and Nick Markakis doesn’t sound that bad.

Happ provides lineup protection for Freddie.

Freddie Freeman is coming off of his second consecutive season with an OBP of .400 or higher, and he hit 62 home runs between 2016 and 2017.  Freeman’s in the heart of his prime, entering his age-28 season. Adding a potential switch hitting, 30-homer threat in 23-year-old Ian Happ behind Freeman will only benefit the both of them.

Opposing pitchers could walk a dangerous Freddie Freeman, but then you’ve got to face Ian Happ, coming off of a .514 slugging percentage, with a man on. With the threat of Happ on deck, Freddie will see more strikes, and could even put up his first 40-homer season. Meanwhile, with a leadoff trio of Albies-Acuña-Freeman, Happ will see a ton of RBI chances. It’s a win-win for the Braves.

Happ’s deal is more team-friendly than Ender.

If the Atlanta Braves were to pick up Inciarte’s option in 2022, they will have paid him $33 million from 2018 to 2022.  That’s excellent.  For Happ to make that much from 2018 to 2022, he would have to make an average of roughly $15.7 million in his first two arbitration years (2021 & 2022). That’s not happening.

Plus, because Happ was called up later in the season, he has six full years of club control moving forward, so he’s controllable through 2023, his age-29 season. Meanwhile, Ender’s only controllable through 2022, his age-32 season.

Alan talked about the Braves adding financial flexibility by moving Kemp this weekend.  Inciarte isn’t making nearly as much by comparison, but if he were to be dealt, that’s still an additional $4.5m freed up in 2018, and much more beyond – so even more dollars would be available to pursue a 2018-19 free agent.

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If the Atlanta Braves can get Ian Happ for Ender Inciarte without giving up anything else, they’ve got to pull the trigger. Happ may not be what every fan wants, but he’s what the team needs as the rebuilding stages come to an end. This trade alone would bring Atlanta one step closer to contention.