Atlanta Braves: what the heck, let’s speculate about Stanton

It’s the Hot Stove season – the time when rumors fly about willy-nilly. So here’s one to start with that we may as well have some fun with: Giancarlo Stanton.

Sure, I will be the first (actually probably the 43rd) to say that this rumor has about as many legs to stand on as the Black Knight from Scene 4 of Monty Python and the Holy Grail, but there actually is somebody who put in writing the notion that the Atlanta Braves might have interest in Giancarlo Stanton this winter.

Here’s the full quote, coming from the Boston’s Globe’s Nick Cafardo, in a story about 35 names and teams to watch this off-season:

"2. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins — It’ll take major creativity and money to make a trade happen, but all indications from Marlins personnel say they will try to deal Stanton. There’ll be all sorts of proposals, some involving lots of prospects, some involving a lot of money the Marlins would have to eat. There’s also a no-trade provision involved. Stanton doesn’t want to go to a rebuilding team. He’s also from the West Coast, so that may be a preference. The list of teams that could be in the hunt include the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Rangers, Phillies, and Braves. Am I crazy to think about Aaron Judge and Stanton in the same lineup?"

Okay, Atlanta is indeed mentioned last among the 8 teams named. And there’s absolutely no external substantiation to this whatsoever – so it’s pure speculation on the part of this writer.

Actually, I strain to recall anything we’ve ever quoted from Cafardo that ever panned out, but … whatever.

Just for fun, we’ll throw this in from the same column, which is perhaps a touch more plausible:

"27. Atlanta Braves — GM John Coppolella lost his job because of international signing violations. MLB has reportedly absolved team president John Hart of any wrongdoing. Hart will now pick a new GM and is considering Washington assistants Dan Jennings and Doug Harris and possibly Ben Cherington. The Braves may also be getting closer to spending money as a contender again."

Okay, that last line… ‘may also be getting close to spending money as a contender again‘. Right – that part is the bit that makes this whole fantasy somewhat plausible, and perhaps especially so in the wake of this off-season distraction that could cost Atlanta dearly.

So let me paint a scenario in which the idea of getting the most expensive player in baseball might actually work for the Braves, and you can paint your own portraits of derision later.

Pre-requisites

All righty. The first and second things that would have to happen involve the two corner outfield positions. So we’ll just assume the following:

Nick Markakis – traded for all but perhaps $2-3 million of his deal. Let’s say “$3 million” for the sake of this exercise. I don’t care who or what comes back in the deal… not part of the scope today.
Matt Kemp – outright released -or- traded to Cafardo’s Boston Red Sox in the scenario we’ve discussed here before: Rusney Castillo.

Why even do the latter? Because $40 million (what the Braves still owe Kemp) is still a lot to swallow and Castillo represents both a chance to save a bit of cash, plus add a ‘hot backup’ in Castillo that at least has some value in case of an injury.

But in the worst case, release Kemp.

So now you have no corner outfielders… Ronald Acuna will get a spot this Spring – and whether it’s LF/CRF/RF… I don’t care today. Stanton would probably get the right field corner.

The Money

So now the Braves have saved somewhere between $7 million and $27 million or so, depending on the particulars.

Right now, my off-season estimate has the team spending a minimum of $84 million (+/-) with Markakis and Matt Adams out of the equation. If Kemp were released, then nothing really changes. If he is dealt, then maybe that save a bit more – suggesting up to half of his deal in a Castillo swap.

Well right there is nearly enough to pay for Stanton…and even if Atlanta were to work from that $84 million figure, they could still pay him without exceeding last year’s payroll (and it wouldn’t even be close).

Oh – that $40 million for Kemp? … okay, that would have to be dealt with separately.

But here’s the thing… Stanton’s contract isn’t going to look that hideous in another 3-4 years.

In fact, just wait until you see what Bryce Harper, Molan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout eventually get from their up-coming free agent deals. Sure – Stanton peaks at $32 million as part of his back-loaded deal (2023-24), but fact is, he might actually choose to opt out after 2020 anyway… only 3 seasons.

Either way, you get him in his prime now and go through 2027 (there’s an option for 2028) at dollars that are going to look ‘normal’ for a middle-of-the-order slugger.

Heck, Kemp is getting $21.75 million today. Justin Upton just agreed on terms that will pay him $21+ million for 5 more years in Los Angeles. The price for hitting is high, and not getting lower. Stanton at least represents the best in baseball for slugging right now.

A Trade?

I’m not even worried about what Stanton might cost in prospects. The Marlins’ chief concern is about cost reduction, but sure – they will want a couple of decent prospects back as well – even if a trade partner opts to take on the full contract.

More from Tomahawk Take

But should the Braves spend a couple of premium pitchers (and more) to set up a lineup that might look like this in another year or two?

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Stanton
Acuna
Riley
Jackson
Swanson

Next: Still talking about Moose?

It’s a fantasy, but did we just get your attention with that?