This is third in a series to review the Braves on a position by position basis and compare each against the league. Third is also where we’re looking on the diamond this time around.
To say that the third base position was “unsettled” for the Atlanta Braves in 2017 is probably being kind. It clearly has been unsettled ever since Chipper Jones hung up his cleats and shuffled off to a deer blind in the woods somewhere.
But just the fact that 2017 saw nine different third basemen in a single campaign – with none of them exceeding 350 innings – should tell you all you need to know.
So with all of this flux – which is very likely to continue – how did this position stack up against the league?
Offensive Side
Normally, I would post the numbers for the primary position-holders and then discuss that before doing MLB comparisons, but honestly, that wouldn’t do much for us here: 5 players saw at least 135 innings, 4 of them over 200.
This wasn’t a platoon situation, it was an entire platoon of players with hardly a guess as to who might play on a given night.
Adonis Garcia ended up with the most time (340.2 innings) with Rio Ruiz right on his heels at 337. Johan Camargo was next with 286. But Brandon Phillips and Freddie Freeman both combined to jostle the numbers quite a bit as well.
So with that…combining our 3B stats and comparing them with all other teams, here’s what we find:
- Best offensive WAR component: Cubs (45.0). Braves 26th overall with -18.7. Ouch.
- Best fWAR: Cubs (7.3). Braves 27th (0.6)
- Best average: Rockies (.297). Braves 19th with .246
- Best OBP: Cubs (.395). Braves 24th (.302)
- Best OPS: Rockies (.927). Braves 27th (.681). That despite the influence of Freeman.
- wRC+: Cubs (136), Braves 27th (77).
- Walk Rate: Cubs again (13.4%), Braves 27th (7%)
- K Rate: Indians (13.1%), Braves 15th (20.3%)
- Doubles: Indians (72), Braves 24th (31; tie with 2 teams)
- Triples: White Sox (11), Braves 15th-23rd (tie among 8 teams at 2)
- Homers: Rangers (65?) with Braves dead last at 15 (tied with Marlins)
- Steals: Giants 29, Braves 19th (6).
Not good. The Braves ranked 24th or worse in an appalling number of categories.
Of course that’s why so many got tryouts there – even Freeman. There was just no threat to speak of here from a position where power is traditionally derived.
Baseball America offered a glimmer of hope a couple of days ago when they released a new Top 10 prospects for the Braves – and 3B Austin Riley was on it.
This was a bit surprising since many have downplayed Riley for a ‘slow bat’ in the past, but those concerns seem to be quieting as he is progressing through the minors.
Certainly BA believes in him now – ranking him 6th overall in the Braves’ system: above Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Kevin Maitan, and Cristian Pache (another strong ranking).
As of this writing Riley is now hitting .294 for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League with an OPS of .863. That’s behind Alex Jackson, but we’ll talk about him when we get around to mentioning catchers.
Being Defensive
Here’s the 3B defensive chart:
- DRS (Defensive Runs Saved): A’s (19). Braves -2 (15th in tie with 3 others)
- Plays: A’s 286; Braves 16th (229).
- RZR (Revised Zone Rating – “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out”): Pirates 77.9%; Braves 16th at 69.8%
- OOZ (Out of Zone plays): Padres 83; Braves 20th at 51
- Putouts: Mariners 139, Braves 15th (103).
- Assists: A’s 355; Braves 20th at 288.
- Errors: Nationals 7; Braves 11th with 15 (tie with 3 others).
Of note: when I put in the ‘Plays’ stat, it’s not to measure the player results, but to measure the relative importance of having a decent defender at the position.
If you have a butcher hidden someplace on the field, you don’t care as much if he seldom sees the ball. If he’s great, you want him where his impact will be felt the best.
Thus infielders are more important with a pitching staff of ground ball artists; less so with fly ball guys.
Atlanta’s pitching ranked in the middle on that point: 14th in ground ball% for 2017: 44.5%. The highest was the Rockies (good for them!) with 48.5%. The lowest was the Tigers (bombs away) at 39.4%… the only team below 40%.
I’ll refrain from further comment on this point for now and let y’all mull that over. But generally speaking, the Braves third basemen – as a group – were more-or-less average in the field.
A Closer Look
Okay – what do the Braves need at third base? Two things:
- Consistency
- More production on offense
I would add as a “wish list item” some better defense… but frankly I don’t expect that we’re going to see all three unless we shock the world and trade for Josh Donaldson or something (Note: if you check the charts, Mike Moustakas isn’t actually that much of an upgrade – even offensively).
So what are the internal options for right now? We’ve talked about them:
- Rio Ruiz
- Johan Camargo
The working assumption here is that Adonis Garcia (he will be 33 next April) will be non-tendered and therefore be out of the mix. So it’s really between the pair right now.
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- Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
About Ruiz. The question here is whether Ruiz will hit at the major league level – or rather, how long can the Braves wait to find out? He’s still young (24 next May), but there’s reason to believe that his hit tool isn’t quite there.
In 2017, he hit .193 in 173 plate appearances with a .301 OBP and .663 OPS.
AAA was better… but .247/.304/.446/.768 for close to 2/3rds of that season… with 20 HR between Gwinnett and Atlanta.
Of note, this was his second year of AAA ball… and he finished 2016 with a .271 average. Going back further, he slumped badly in 2015 (AA) before coming on stronger in the last month to finish hitting .233.
About Camargo. By contrast, Camargo hit .299 in the majors (256 PA), .295 at AAA (142 PA) and has a history of better hitting.
That said, he averaged in the 250-260’s range in 2015-16 between A and AA ball… after scorching Rookie ball in 2012-13.
Camargo doesn’t have the power that Ruiz does… though we saw him rip some ringing gappers this Summer. He is likewise nearly 24 years old as well, so both players should be ready to blossom – if that’s going to happen.
But that’s 2018… and perhaps Austin Riley might be knocking on the door as early as next Summer. So while third base remains an enigma position with a definite upgrade need, I expect that Atlanta will choose to let it ride with either Camargo (preferred), Ruiz, or both.
In other words, Josh Donaldson will not – nor will any other external 3B gloveman – be waltzing through that clubhouse door.