Atlanta Braves’ ideal offseason spending plan

The Braves are in dire need of an upgrade or two if they’re looking to compete in 2018, and thankfully, they’ve got the money to do so this offseason. There are several positions that could get an upgrade, but with limited flexibility in the team’s payroll, there may not be enough money to satisfy all.

According to the legendary Braves Options Guy, the Atlanta Braves will be spending roughly $93.7 million taking care of guys that are either already under contract, arbitration eligible, or pre-arbitration eligible.

This figure takes into account only R.A. Dickey‘s $500k buyout (likely), as well as the assumed non-tender statuses of Ian Krol, Danny Santana and Jace Peterson (hopefully).

It’s safe to say that $130 million is a reasonable payroll figure for the Braves to start the 2018 season, which is just under their $135 million in total payroll for 2017. That gives the Braves, (again, roughly) $36.3 million to spend however they’d like in an attempt to become contenders once again.

How can the Atlanta Braves use this money to turn their 72-90 club into playoff contenders?

First things first

Matt Adams and Jim Johnson are two guys I just don’t see fitting into Atlanta’s plans, and the Braves could save about $8 million trading the two this off-season for what I’d assume would be league minimum-value returns. Adams’ arbitration value is estimated to be around $4.6 million, and Johnson is slotted to make $4.5 million in 2018. Dumping these salaries off is a must.

Assuming Atlanta can rid themselves of Jim Johnson and get Matt Adams to a team where he’ll get more playing time, their spending total this off-season jumps up to about $44.3 million, which allows for a bit more flexibility.

Now, let’s get to business.

The Atlanta Braves have a lengthy to-do list this off-season. They’ve got to make room for Ronald Acuña to start games in the outfield, figure out who’s going to be playing third base and assess the rotation and bullpen (and make changes to either, if necessary).

Oh, and they’ve got to find a general manager.

In making room for Ronald Acuña, the Braves will have to rid themselves of either Nick Markakis or Matt Kemp. Now, who do you want in your outfield: A guy who played 160 games last year and hit 39 doubles, or a guy who played in 115 games in a 2017 season plagued by hamstring issues and weight gain? I’ll take ‘Nicky Singles’, as some have called Markakis, every single time.

There’s no way around it: Matt Kemp needs to go, but it’ll cost money.

Getting Kemp Traded

First, let’s take a look at Matt Kemp’s contract, so there’s no confusion.

Yes, Kemp is making $21.75 million in 2018. However, the Braves are only ‘on the hook’ for $19 million of that for both 2018 and 2019. The other $2.75 million is being paid by the Dodgers as part of the deal that sent Kemp to the Padres.

Now, the Braves could eat $19 million in 2018 and again in 2019 to ensure that Kemp gets traded, but there are American League teams that would be willing to pay Matt Kemp to DH for them. The ideal situation would be for Atlanta to pay a team $10 million a year to take Kemp off their hands, be content with a lesser prospect return, and have Ronald Acuña starting in their outfield.

Matt Kemp would be a great fit with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals had the fewest hits, doubles and RBI among AL teams from the DH position. If Kemp can get his weight under control again this off season, he could be just as effective as Kendrys Morales, if not better, and he wouldn’t have to worry about lumbering around in left field putting extra strain on his hamstrings.

Regardless of where they send him, if the Braves can spend $10 million to get Matt Kemp traded, they’re in a good position to do some big spending elsewhere this off-season with about $34 million to spend.

Who’s on third?

I don’t want Todd Frazier. I don’t want Mike Moustakas. Give me two years of Zack Cozart for $28 million. The 32-year-old had his best season yet in 2017, slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 homers and 24 doubles in 122 games. 2017 was likely an outlier for Cozart offensively, but he’s been a great defender throughout his entire career.

After a season like 2017, regression is expected for Cozart, but he won’t fall all the way back down to his post-2017 .246 career average. He’s got the potential to at least be a .260-.270 guy with 20 homers, without a doubt. Some guys figure the game out later in their careers, and that’s absolutely the case with Zack Cozart.

However, I realize that trying to sign a shortstop to play 3rd base is a bit of a stretch.

With that being said, there isn’t a single free agent third baseman in my mind that the Braves could get without potentially paying him more than he’s worth.

• Moustakas is 29, and he’ll be looking for a big payday, and likely something long-term.
• Todd Frazier isn’t even worth the $12 million he made this season, but he’ll be looking for $15 million a year or more.

If the Braves want to pursue a solid, short-term third base option, their best bet may very well be to find a trade partner this off-season.  Fred mentioned one in particular this last weekend:  Jedd Gyorko.  I like Jedd Gyorko. He’s affordable, the Braves have a surplus of prospects to trade, and the three years left on his contract make him tradable once Austin Riley is called up.

The Braves could be paying Gyorko the $9 million he’s owed in 2018, or they could pay as much as $15 million elsewhere, but that’s as much as I’d spend. Even spending $15 million would give the Braves $19 million to assess pitching, which is more than enough to grab a pair of solid arms.

Adding some versatility

Let’s be very honest: The 2017 Atlanta Braves’ bullpen was more of an emotional roller coaster than Marley & Me (if you didn’t cry, you’re lying). There were bright spots, but there were also Jim Johnson, Rex Brothers and Ian Krol. It’s time for Atlanta to put together a bullpen that can hold up over the course of an entire season, and it all starts with a familiar face coming back home.

After battling injuries in 2015 and 2016, Mike Minor returned to the MLB as a Kansas City Royal in 2017 with arguably his best season yet, and it came as a reliever.  Minor’s 2.55 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 6.6 H/9, 10.2 SO/9 and 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio were all career bests.

Mike MInor has a mutual option worth $10 million with the Royals for 2018, but with the direction the team is headed, there’s a good chance he could get himself out of that mess.

If Minor does choose to opt-out, the Braves could get him for around $10 million a year for a few years.  If the Royals decline their side of the mutual option, he could very well be cheaper.

Minor could start games for the Braves when needed, but would also be an excellent relief option in several different situations. With Kansas City, Minor worked the middle innings, he closed games, and he even had a few multi-inning appearances. Mike Minor is the versatile arm that the Atlanta Braves need.

A change of scenery, maybe?

Perhaps the best, affordable bullpen addition for the Braves would be Jake McGee. The 31-year-old has been plagued with the task of pitching in Colorado for the past two years, and his stats have suffered.

A 4.11 ERA over the last two seasons is no indication of how good McGee is. What needs to be seen is his 2.75 ERA away from Colorado. That mark is almost identical to his 2.77 career ERA before joining the Rockies. Nothing else needs to be said about the numbers, because Jake McGee is still the dominant reliever he was with the Rays from 2010-to-2015.

McGee got a 1-year, $5.9 million deal from the Rockies for the 2017 season, and after a decent season, he’s due for a raise. Hypothetically speaking, if the Braves can get Mike Minor for $10 million, they’d have about $9 million left to spend. Give it to Jake McGee, hands down. He could be the bullpen anchor that the Atlanta Braves need moving forward.

To compete, or not to compete?

The Braves’ ability to compete in 2018 hinges on their ability to first save money in deals, so that they have the money to make other deals happen. If they can do this, they’ve got a good shot at signing the guys they need.

If the Atlanta Braves go into 2018 with Jim Johnson and Matt Adams on the roster, they don’t compete. If the Atlanta Braves have to pay a hefty majority of Matt Kemp’s contract to get him traded, they don’t compete. If the Atlanta Braves don’t have the money to compete, they won’t compete. That’s all there is to it.

Of course all of this assumes that they get their house in order first.

Next: Coppy was offered severance??

If the Braves aren’t competitive next year, there’s nothing to frown about. 2018 is essentially supposed to be the final year of the rebuilding process, and you can’t be mad at a team for not competing while they’re still putting pieces together and waiting on talent to develop. However, if this off-season goes well, don’t be surprised when the Braves finish the year above .500.