Atlanta Braves’ fans already going ga-ga over Gohara

The kid from Brazil has been good – no doubt.  But can we pump the brakes on engraving his Cy Young award for a bit?

Atlanta Braves fan Twitter seems to have gotten all of their talking points together this morning… already there’s a whole bunch of tweets on this same theme:

Now I’m not picking on Zach here; in fact, his tweet is probably the best of the lot.

There have been others noting Gohara start yesterday with fondness, including Baseball America. Others noted that he’s currently the youngest starter in the majors, that he’s the hardest-throwing lefty (96.0 mph; Sean Newcomb is at 93.6, by the way), etc.

What the FIP…

Let me stop here and quote the definition and formula for FIP:

"“Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is statistic that estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the performance of their defense.  FIP is based on outcomes that do not involve defense; strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs allowed.  FIP uses those statistics and approximates a pitcher’s ERA assuming average outcomes on balls in play.  While it is not a complete accounting of pitcher performance, it is generally a better representation of performance than ERA.  The constant changes with the run environment, but the formula is”"

FIP = [ (13 x HR) + 3 x (BB + HBP) – (2 x K) ] / Innings + (FIP Constant)

In the majors this season, there have been 178,036 plate appearances by batters.  There have been a record 5882 home runs and a record 38,493 strikeouts, plus 15,185 walks.

That’s 59,560 outcomes that FIP tracks or almost exactly one-third (33.454%) or the possible outcomes.

Which means that FIP ignores two-thirds of baseball by design and intent.

Yes – I get it… all of the other balls are “in play” and therefore subject issues with fielding – maybe they fall for hits or are caught or are fumbled or are thrown away.  All true.

But what is also true is that FIP specifically favors the strikeout pitcher and that’s why you see elite strikeout pitchers on Zach’s list above.

On the FIP Side…

Strikeouts aren’t bad for pitchers… clearly.  They reduce the odds that teams will be able to string together hits for multi-run rallies.  But look at Gohara’s line from yesterday:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

This was his best start as a major leaguer… and FIP figured in 12 of the 25 batters he faced… 9 positively and 3 on the negative side.

What I’m just as interested in are the other 13 batters.  Those outcomes:

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single to RF

flyout to deep LF (just missed)

groundout to 3rd

popout to Catcher

groundout to 3rd

single to deep RF (with a nice play to nail Alfaro at 2nd)

groundout to second

single through right side

popout to infield-fly-esque short

lineout to deep LF (another ‘just missed’)

single up the middle

double play groundout (6-4-3)

popout to SS

My takeaways:

• Fielding helped Gohara
• He seemed to be getting stronger as he went along (6 K in last 3 innings)
• He’s both missing bats (all bit last K were swinging) and inducing weak contact (groundouts, popouts)
• Even the drilled hits were almost all just off-center enough to keep them in the field of play.

Note that you can have a low FIP – or even a high one – with good outcomes.  It’s harder to do and harder to sustain, but it happens with regularity.  Check this:

• Luiz Gohara:  2.90 FIP (with 4.00 xFIP), 4.63 ERA.
• Jake Thompson (Phils):  5.82 FIP, 3.47 ERA
• Jose Urena (Marlins):  5.06 FIP, 3.68 ERA
• Lucas Giolito (White Sox):  4.94 FIP, 2.38 ERA

I’d point out, too, that high ERA with low FIP is certainly also possible, but Gohara is at the head of that list as it is.

Oh, and don’t pull the ‘small sample size’ card out of your deck for Thompson or Giolito unless you’re gonna apply it equally – they both have thrown more than Gohara’s 23.1 innings.

So if you can find a metric that captures the soft or weak contact (in addition to ‘no contact’), then please – yes – let’s do that, for it would help capture the entire game.  I just think FIP is too isolated.

Next: Team is lobbying for Snitker

Yes – there is a correlation between great FIP and great outcomes… but it’s not for everyone.  I just hate FIP being reserved for the strikeout artists while many other excellent pitchers can’t hang their hats on it.

But in the meantime… thanks Seattle – we appreciate that gift you sent us.  I really do think he’s gonna be a good one.