In 2015 the Braves won 67 times, picking 3rd overall. In 2016 it was 68 victories and a 5th overall pick. Let’s take an early guess on 2017’s finish.
The Atlanta Braves now have a record of 64-78, with 20 games remaining on the 2017 schedule. They are…
- 3 in Washington, beginning tonight*
- 3 at home vs. the Mets
- 3 at home vs. the Nationals again
- 3 at home with Philadelphia, completing the home schedule
- 4 at CitiField with the Mets
- 4 in Miami with the Marlins
* – The center of Irma’s remains is in the middle of Mississippi now and it’s raining in the state of Virginia, so this game could be at risk tonight.
State of the Season
If the season ended right now, the Braves would finish with the 8th pick for the next Rule 4 and Rule 5 drafts (next June and this December, respectively).
That would leave them with a protected pick. Should Atlanta opt to pursue a higher-priced free agent this off-season, that pick would not be lost (instead, it would be their next pick – a second-rounder – getting nicked).
To lose this status, Atlanta would have to pass the following clubs:
- San Diego (65-79)
- Toronto (67-77)
- Pittsburgh (68-77)
Also firmly in the mix: Miami (68-75 with 2 extra games still to play and the Braves still on their schedule).
Checking in on the Competition
PADRES. San Diego’s positioning actually shocks me: I could have been talked into betting real money that the Friars would lose 100 games. But their issue will be their own schedule: Minnesota, Colorado (twice), Arizona, the Dodgers, and the Giants.
Of those, San Fran is the only pushover. All the rest are fighting for a playoff spot – or slot. A 6-12 finish is a real possibility (71-91).
BLUE JAYS. Toronto is kinda in the same boat, with games vs. Baltimore, Minnesota, KC, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Yankees. They should hold their own, but it’s going to be difficult to even win half of those. Call it 8-10 for them: 75-87.
THE PIRATES. Pittsburgh faces the Brewers twice and the Reds in between… that could either rejuvenate Milwaukee or stick a fork in them. My suspicion? A push.
But after all that – if the races start to become more clear – their games vs. the Cardinals, Orioles and Nationals might not matter. +1 for the Pirates down the stretch. 10-7 for them and a 78-84 finish.
MIAMI. If any team could swoon, it would be the Marlins. Already 2-8 in their last 10, they went from “on the edge of competitive” to “off the edge” in the space of 10 days. They gets the Phillies, Milwaukee, the Mets, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and the Braves.
Given the hurricane in their backyard, their not-failed August foray, a lesser Stanton in September, and the pending break-up of their club… this is a team without much to play for other than personal pride.
With that and their tough schedule, it is very plausible that Atlanta could overtake the Fish in the standings during that last weekend in Florida. Call it 7-12 if they are lucky; 75-87.
The Braves’ Schedule
The Nationals suddenly have a real shot at passing the Dodgers for best record in the NL – only 3.5 games back today. So they are not likely to lift on the gas pedal for a while. While Atlanta has been playing well, stifling their offense is another matter.
The Braves have the oddity of still having 20 games to play- more than any of the other clubs noted here. The only remaining day off comes on the 18th, with a doubleheader scheduled for Monday, September 25th in New York.
Has the Philadelphia paradox been solved yet? If so, then the Braves should be able to reclaim some dignity against the Phils. But then we’ve been hoping for that all year.
The Mets… frankly, I can’t figure out how they are beating anybody right now, but they are hanging close by (1.5 games behind the Braves).
So let’s be conservative and guess on this: 1 win vs. Washington, 2 against the Phillies, a 3-4 record against the Mets, and a 2-2 split at Miami. That’s 8-12 to finish up (72-90).
Feeling more optimistic? That would argue for 3-3 vs. the Nats, 2 vs. Philadelphia, 5-2 vs. the Mets and 3-1 at Miami… 13-7 (77-85).
77 wins would challenge for (and probably claim) that 11th draft position. 72… not likely.
Could they “improve” on that 8th position? Only the Mets (63-80) would seem to have a realistic shot at bettering the Braves. Their two head-to-head matchups gives them the means and the opportunity… but is the motivation there? That’s up in the air.
The Final Guess
73 wins… and an 9th draft position. It’s all on the Padres, Mets and Marlins, but I truly don’t expect a good finish out of any of those three clubs. In the end, I do expect that Atlanta retains that protected pick.
Next: Development is the minors' key goal
The final push to the end starts tonight.