A look ahead to the Atlanta Braves’ 2018 Opening Day roster

We’re almost through with the 2017 season, and it’s been a wild one. Playoff hopes are gone, and fans have been introduced to a few new faces, giving a glimpse of what the future holds for the Braves. With 2018 in sight, Braves fans have to be thinking about what the Opening Day roster may look like.

Atlanta Braves fans have seen faces come and go over the past few years, and I don’t expect that to be any different this off-season. There are guys on the roster that don’t fit into the team’s long-term plans, and there are young guys that need regular playing time in the MLB. Those two groups cannot co-exist.

The idea of a rebuild revolves around the introduction and development of the club’s youth. This cannot happen with guys like Jim Johnson, Adonis Garcia, and others standing in the way of young talent. I think that Braves’ GM John Coppolella will show his confidence in this ‘youth movement’ with a few roster moves this offseason.

After apparent hesitation by the front office to bring him up in 2017, Ronald Acuña is poised to make his MLB debut on Opening Day next year, barring a decision to give him the ‘Kris Bryant treatment’ for club control purposes (a practice that this team typically eschews).

Without further comment, let’s get into what the Atlanta Braves’ 2018 Opening Day roster should look like, and why.

Starting Pitchers

There is a ton of speculation around the Atlanta Braves and their plans for a starting rotation in 2018. Many fans want the Braves to trade for an elite starting pitcher this winter. Others have suggested the Braves taking their pick from a very limited free agent class.

But why?

The Braves have centralized their rebuilding process around pitching. Adding another arm to the already inevitable logjam of pitching wouldn’t make very much sense, especially with big names like Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard expected to debut sometime next year.

Here’s my starting rotation to open the 2018 season. Keep in mind that, much like 2017, the rotation may not stay this way over the course of the season:

1. Julio Teheran

Unless the return is absolutely irresistible, Julio Teheran isn’t being traded, and I don’t think anyone is making an irresistible offer for the young righty, as his value is the lowest it’s ever been.

Julio’s numbers this year aren’t that much worse than they were in 2015, and he bounced back from that season with an All-Star nomination in 2016.

The Braves are going to need an experienced starting pitcher to lead their young rotation in 2018, and Julio Teheran is, without a doubt, their guy.

2. Mike Foltynewicz

Mike Foltynewicz has struggled at times this year with command and composure, but he’s 25 years-old. He still has plenty of time to grow as a starter, and I’m confident he’ll play closer to his ceiling in 2018 than he ever has before. There were times this year where many thought Folty could be the Braves’ future ace, but I think he’s ultimately a number 2 or 3 starter with an electric fastball, and off-speed stuff that’s getting better with every outing.

3. Sean Newcomb

The Braves’ rotation has an opportunity to be lefty-heavy in 2018, and it all starts with Sean Newcomb.

Newk has one of the best curveballs I’ve seen from a guy under 25, and he’s been working on developing his change-up. It’s crucial to have a third reliable pitch at the Major League level, and if Newcomb can implement his change-up wisely and improve his arm-side control, he’s going to shine in the big leagues.

4. Max Fried

The Braves are sending Max Fried to the Arizona Fall League for fine-tuning. Fried’s numbers in the minor leagues saw a significant drop-off from 2016 to 2017, but he’s still shown that he can be dominant with his stuff.

Even with a 5.54 ERA between Mississippi and Gwinnett, Fried was striking out just a hair under a batter per inning, while struggling to keep the walks to a minimum. Fried certainly still has the talent the Padres saw in him when they took him 7th overall in the 2012 draft, and the extra work this fall will hopefully have him ready for his first full season as an MLB starter.

5. Luiz Gohara

Luiz Gohara has only made one MLB appearance so far, but his rapid progression through the minor leagues along with a cumulative 2.62 ERA spanning across three levels are signs that he’s ready to take on a starting role in the big leagues.

Gohara got battered by a hot Rangers team in his first MLB start, but it’s no indication of what he’s capable of when he’s in his zone. He just turned 21 in July, and with a solid Spring Training performance to go along with the work he gets this September, he’ll lock himself in as the Atlanta Braves’ fifth starter.

Bullpen

The Braves certainly need to make efforts towards a younger bullpen in 2018. Veterans in the bullpen are necessary to provide some certainty to the mix, but if Atlanta is going to embrace their youth movement in 2018, they need to do so wholeheartedly. The Braves have young arms ready to fill the bullpen just as they do for the rotation, and 2018 is the year that the youngsters take control.

Due to the depth that the Braves have, they’ll likely employ an 8-man bullpen for most of 2018. This will help avoid the overuse of any one guy, and hopefully will give the Braves the late-game security that has been such a rarity this year.

1. Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson has had two bad outings recently against the Rockies (1 IP, 6 ER) and Cubs (1 IP, 3 ER) that have inflated his ERA a bit. Aside from those implosions, he’s been alright.

This year has technically been his rookie year, so we’re looking at Jackson being in his second full season next year, his age 26 season. He’s shown that he can eat multiple innings out of the bullpen, with his longest outing this year being 4 innings.

Luke Jackson is absolutely a key piece to the Braves’ bullpen, at least for the next year or two.

2. Lucas Sims

Many see Lucas Sims as a starter because of the way he was groomed in the minor leagues, and he’s definitely shown that he can start games and go deep into them. In the grand scheme of things, however, Sims just doesn’t beat out Fried or Gohara for a spot in the rotation.

We’ve only had a limited glimpse of him in a relief role, but he certainly looks comfortable coming in during the middle of a game. Lucas Sims could serve as the Braves’ second long relief option for 2018 while also maintaining the ability to come in and work a shutdown inning when it’s asked of him.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him given spot starts here and there to take some stress off of this young rotation.

3. Sam Freeman

When the Braves signed Sam Freeman to a minor league deal, no one expected him to come up to Atlanta and be one of the bright spots of the bullpen this year.  The Braves are paying him league minimum salary this year, and he’s eligible for arbitration for 2017.  Of note: Freeman will be 30½ years old before Spring Training begins.

His 2.89 ERA sits 3rd among Braves pitchers with at least 30 IP this season, and he’s giving up less than a hit per inning pitched, while striking out just over one batter per inning. Freeman will be the veteran backbone of the bullpen in 2018, and I expect him to be an innings-eating machine all year.

4. Dan Winkler

Braves fans waited and waited for the arrival of their team’s 2014 Rule 5 selection, and now that he’s healthy, Dan Winkler is doing what he should be doing.

Winkler has given up just 3 hits and has struck out 11 men in 8.1 innings since completing his extended rehab assignment after fracturing his elbow last season.

While we only get a limited look at him this year, the promising signs he’s showing will earn him a spot in the Atlanta bullpen next year… and finally get him out of Rule 5 purgatory.

5. Akeel Morris

Akeel Morris may be my favorite reliever that I’ve seen in a Braves uniform this year. His change-up is something special, and he’s just as effective against the 1-2-3 section of a lineup as he is the 7-8-9.

The series of events that led to Morris being sent back down to AAA confused many, including myself, but it’s almost a guarantee* that he’ll start 2018 in the MLB. He certainly made his case during his short time in Atlanta, posting a 1.23 ERA in 8 relief appearances.

*Here’s something about the “almost” bit… on why Morris isn’t already in the majors:

A strange answer, for sure… I would think they could find him a chair.

6. A.J. Minter

A.J. Minter was a strikeout machine across four levels of the minor leagues this year. The Braves knew they could fast-track Minter to the MLB after they drafted him out of college in 2015, and they’ve done just that.

The lefty logged just 59 innings in the minors before getting the call in August, and in his 7 appearances thus far, has looked sharp. Minter has yet to walk an MLB hitter, and while it’s unrealistic to expect that trend to continue forever, it’s a sign that he has exceptional control of his pitches, and will likely keep his baserunner count to a minimum.

A.J. Minter has the potential to be an Andrew Miller-type reliever, and that’s excellent company to be in.

7. Jose Ramirez

If you look up the word ‘dominant’ in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Jose Ramirez. His 2.28 ERA leads the team (min. 30 IP), and he’s given up just 5.7 hits per nine innings. That’s incredible, especially when compared to others in the Braves’ bullpen.

Ramirez will touch triple digits every now and then, and has grown accustomed to blowing his fastball by guys to get through the 7th or 8th inning quickly. I think he and Minter will split the ‘setup man’ role in 2018 for our closer, who throws just as hard (if not harder).

8. Arodys Vizcaino

Part two of the flame-throwing, lights-out duo is Arodys Vizcaino. I’ve wanted him in the closer role since the beginning of last season, and now we’re getting just that.

Vizzy has been known to touch 100mph, and has slightly better walk and strikeout rates than Jose Ramirez, which is why he’s the 9th inning guy the Braves need. I won’t directly compare Vizcaino to former Brave Craig Kimbrel, but one might say that he’s a cheaper version of our lost treasure.

Lineup

The Atlanta Braves’ lineup has the potential to be better than ever in 2018. With Ronald Acuña seemingly destined for greatness and Freddie Freeman at the peak of his career, the Braves will be looking to put together a lineup that will compete with the league’s best, instead of hanging around the middle of the pack like the team has in recent years.

I can’t stress enough how important 2018 is for the Braves’ rebuild. It will be the first opportunity for the front office to truly embrace the youth movement and go with a lineup almost exclusively under 30 years-old.

1. Ender Inciarte – CF

This one seems like a no-brainer, but some are actually in favor of moving Ender Inciarte to the 2-hole after this year to give way to Ozzie Albies. I disagree, though. Ender is on track for a 200-hit season, which hasn’t been achieved by an Atlanta Braves player since Marquis Grissom in 1996.

Pair a 200-hit season with a low strikeout rate and 20+ stolen bases, and you’ve got yourself quite the leadoff hitter. While Albies has the potential to be this type of player, the leadoff spot shouldn’t be given to him until he’s earned it. Ender’s the team’s leadoff hitter in 2018.

2. Ozzie Albies – 2B

All Ozzie Albies has done since making his MLB debut in August is slash .282/.346/.444 in 38 games, and the rookie is striking out in barely half of those games. That’s impressive for any rookie, let alone a 20-year-old kid.

Ozzie still has yet to fill out his 5-foot-9 frame, but when he does, he’ll only become more explosive. Albies will make the most of his first full season in the big leagues, and I’m expecting him to post a .270 average or better in 2018.

3. Freddie Freeman -1B

Duh. Moving on.

4. Nick Markakis – RF

As much as people have knocked Nick Markakis and his lackadaisical defense/base-running, I really appreciate what the vet has done since joining the Braves.

I’ve even been known to knock him now and then, but his 36 doubles and 63 walks lead the team. A .282 average isn’t anything to be ashamed of at 33 years-old.

I don’t have as much of a problem with Nick Markakis batting cleanup for the Atlanta Braves as I would with the Atlanta Braves paying Matt Kemp ridiculous amounts of money to ground into double plays, play worse defense and gain weight throughout the season. One of the two has to go to make room for future plans.

5. Dansby Swanson – SS

2018 is Dansby Swanson‘s bounce-back season. His struggles during the first half of this year were no secret, but time in AAA seems to have given time for Swanson to press the reset button on his bat.

Since returning to the MLB, Swanson is slashing .320/.437/.433. I’m not going to say that he’ll produce at that level for all of next year, but that’s certainly the level of play the former number one pick is capable of.

I’m excited to watch Dansby develop himself into a serviceable – and hopefully above-average – MLB shortstop.

6. Tyler Flowers – C

Tyler Flowers still has a year left on his contract with the Braves, and they’ve got him at a steal of a price, considering his numbers this season.

Atlanta owes the 31-year-old just $3 million for his services in 2018, and they’ll gladly take another .280 season with a side of elite pitch framing for that price.

His platoon-mate Kurt Suzuki, however, was only signed through 2017, and after the season he’s had, the Braves likely won’t be able to afford to re-sign him. Flowers will be a great backstop once again in 2018.

7. Ronald Acuña – LF

Mind you, this is a projected roster for Opening Day only. I don’t see the Braves hiding Acuña in the 7-hole all year, but you can’t bat a guy who’s never played in an MLB game at the top of the order.

All eyes will definitely be on Acuña as he develops over the course of the 2018 season, and with comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones, he deserves all the attention he’s getting.

This young man has the tools necessary to become a superstar in the MLB, and there’s a reason he’s the Atlanta Braves’ top prospect at 19 years-old. Acuña will benefit greatly from work in the Arizona Fall League, and he’s going to make some noise when he arrives in Atlanta.

8. Rio Ruiz – 3B

Rio Ruiz really struggled when he was first called up this year. He put up a sub-.200 average before being sent back down to AAA where he could get regular playing time without being a burden to the MLB club.

Since Rio was called back up on September 1st, he’s batted .290 in 8 games, and he’s come through in a few key situations for the Braves. If he continues to hit like he is, he’ll be part of a youngster’s platoon at third base with potential super-utility man Johan Camargo.

Ideally, Ruiz would play against righties, and the switch-hitting Camargo would play against lefties. This is a far cheaper solution than the Braves signing a free agent third baseman such as Mike Moustakas.

9. Pitcher

Give me sac bunts and the occasional grand slam, and I’ll be content.

What about the others??

Of course, there are some pretty big names from the 2017 roster that weren’t included in my projection for 2018. The Atlanta Braves are going to have to make some pretty difficult decisions this offseason in preparation for the future, and that will include cutting some of the extra weight on the roster (I’m talking to you, Matt Kemp).

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For various (and some obvious) reasons, guys like Matt Kemp, Jim Johnson, Matt Adams and R.A. Dickey need to go. They just don’t fit in with the direction the Braves are headed. Dickey is too old, Kemp is too injury-prone, Jim Johnson sucks, and Matt Adams needs to go somewhere where he’ll be able to play every single day.

It’ll be tough to part ways with guys that have been a big part of the Braves’ rebuild, but the MLB is a business, and has to be treated like a business. You can’t keep a guy around just because he’s a great clubhouse guy. It just doesn’t make sense when you’re trying to win baseball games.

2018 will be an exciting year for the Atlanta Braves and the team’s fan base. We’re going to see a couple of new faces, and we get to see some tired ones go, but more importantly, 2018 is the year the Atlanta Braves have a legitimate shot at a winning season.

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It will be interesting to see if anything exciting happens during the offseason, but I’m content with what we have within our system, and you should be too.