Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: the rotation and the pursuit of Michael Fulmer

There was overt interest in Sonny Gray by the Braves this July.  Turns out he wasn’t the primary target.

Ken Rosenthal has been continuing to clean up the remaining debris left strewn about from the trade deadline.  What’s a bit surprising is that his latest post-deadline thoughts start with a juicy nugget about our Atlanta Braves.

The key quotes from his report are these…

"“The Braves were interested in Sonny Gray before the non-waiver deadline, but they were even more interested in Michael Fulmer.”“The big question remains ‘Will the Tigers even trade him?’ They’ll address that – revisit it – this off-season.”"

Rosenthal suggests that Fulmer is the Braves’ #1 target for these reasons:

• Longer team control – 5 more seasons
• Better expectation of durability than Gray

But Fulmer would cost multiple high-value prospects, right?

Absolutely.  You could probably assign him one of the highest trade values of any pre-arbitration player in the majors today.  In mid-July, Fangraphs positioned him at 24th in all of baseball… immediately behind Chris Sale.

Chris Archer was at 16th in that ranking – that’s a bit curious, though we still might find out what he brings the Rays this winter.

Still, the Braves look to only be willing to fire one bullet from their farm system’s gun and apparently have made the judgment that Fulmer is their target.

As Rosenthal rightly pointed out, though, Fulmer has had a couple of maladies in this season:  shoulder bursitis earlier in the year and now something called Ulnar Neuritis.

I looked that up… it is manifested as a numbness in the arm and hand and more-or-less takes the feeling out of your hand… kind of a problem for a pitcher as it impacts the grip.

You may have heard of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.  This is more-or-less the equivalent for the Ulnar nerve.  It is not  a problem with the ulnar collateral ligament – i.e., the one that requires Tommy John surgery when torn – but it is a repetitive-motion injury involving the nerve.

But Why?

This is essentially a ‘one in the hand beats two in the bush’ situation.  Knowing there is a pitcher with multi-year success at the major league level (Fulmer – with ERA of 3.06 and 3.59 in the American League for 2016-17) is better than having a couple of prospects who haven’t yet had that kind of opportunity.

Apparently that principle even applies to ‘high value’ prospects.

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Most pitchers will have ‘growing pains’ at each level – and especially when making the leap to the majors.

But Fulmer really hasn’t had that issue, and even his minor league numbers have been consistently good – along with perhaps the most important part:  low walk totals.

Between 2011 and 2016 in the minors:  8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.26 WHIP, 3.21 ERA.

In the major leagues, those numbers have held:  7.0, 2.2, 1.12 and 3.31.

This is why the Braves are interested – such an acquisition would effectively bypass those ‘growing pain’ years for at least one pitching prospect and jump start the “contending” phase of this rebuild.

We’ll see if they continue that pursuit this off-season.

Here’s your box from yesterday afternoon’s finale against the Marlins:

Next: Let's Knock This Around

Today is an off-day, followed by a Phillies quickie on Tuesday and Wednesday.