Atlanta Braves’ trade rumor wrap-up

Hall of Fame weekend is upon us and while that certainly will not exclude trade deals, the official functions that Braves’ Front Office executives must attend will necessarily slow things down a bit.

This is a summary on everything involving the Atlanta Braves that we’ve heard to date as we are down to less than 54 hours before the non-waiver trade deadline.

There truly isn’t much right now, and since the Hall of Fame ceremonies take place tomorrow afternoon, I would expect either (a) a flurry of activity today or (b) Monday.  Or nothing.

Here goes:

• “Unlikely” to trade Julio Teheran.  After last night that might be more like an academic formality, but it is also perhaps a hint that the team thinks obtaining Sonny Gray at this time (or equivalent) may be a longshot.

The surprising thing from last night is simply that Teheran had been brilliant on the road and terrible at home.  Over his last pair of starts, though, that narrative has been flipped.

• “Listening” on Jim Johnson.  Noted yesterday. This is actually a little trickier than you might think otherwise.

The Braves have a bit of a quandry here in that Johnson is contracted for another season at $5 million.  His heir apparent, A.J. Minter, was hurt early on this year and has been working his way back – but not without some difficulties of his own.

In 4 of his last 6 outings, he yielded runs and now has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP for AAA.  The last 2 appearance provided some hope:  3 total innings, 1 walk, 1 hit, 2K.

So letting Johnson go elsewhere might be tricky to do in the absence of many other viable options.

What bizarre is that he’s still striking out a lot of hitters – 10.8 per 9 innings.  But he’s either been good or bad – with not much in between.  But the same time, Arodys Vizcaino is not getting any trade buzz right now.

So will Johnson get moved?  I’m putting a 70% likelihood chance on it, so ‘yes’ is my guess… but don’t expect a lot back in return… than extra year on his contract might not actually help.

Underwhelming

That’s seriously all right now directly involving Atlanta… but there’s some other buzz that could impact the Braves – either directly or through a series of falling dominoes.

• Matt Kemp hurt.  It wasn’t likely he’d be moved regardless, but that seals it, at least for now.
• Troy Tulowitski hurt.  There wasn’t a big shortstop market, but for those even thinking about it… yep, he’s hurt again.
• The Mets picked up a reliever last night… mostly for next season.  A.J. Ramos from Miami (oddly enough).
• Jeremy Hellickson to the Orioles.  He hadn’t pitched for a while, but now it’s guaranteed that the Braves won’t see him.

Gray, Darvish, Verlander

I’ll just lump all three of these guys into one pile.

• The Yankees want Gray the most.  The Braves have scouted him the most.  The A’s are holding out for a top outfield prospect from one of these teams and neither is blinking.
• The Dodgers like Gray, but seem to prefer Darvish – but the Rangers are trying to extract 1st round-like compensation when they could get left holding the bag for a 2nd round pick … all the while that Darvish hasn’t pitched terribly well lately (7+ runs in 2 of last 5 starts).
• Verlander is a last option for everybody – for the money reasons.  And if anybody is more likely to go there, it’s the Dodgers – at least that’s what the pundits are thinking…

…except for… the payroll tax.  They really want to get in under the $197 million threshold for next year.  For this year, they are $41.6 million over and there’s a 50% tax on that.

LA is already committed to roughly $170 million in 2018.  That doesn’t count catcher Yasmani Grandal or any other arbitration cases (9 total; 4 of which are at ‘Year 3’ levels).

Also, there’s this about LA (which probably applies to New York as well):

Dan Straily of the Marlins is probably back on the market, but he’s no Sonny Gray.  Jaime Garcia, Ervin Santana or Lance Lynn could also be targets for them.

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The Braves?  They seem to be sitting back and waiting for things to happen… possibly figuring that Chris Archer might be their real target – one that has to wait for the off-season.  Or possibly just trying to insure they don’t overpay.

So for Gray:  the A’s may choose to not trade him(!!) unless somebody caves, but the A’s may decide that they are compelled to take the best offer available while Gray is healthy, as teams seem to be leery of sending their best just for that reason… and because their best prospects are pretty good.

UPDATE: ODDS ARE… Gray to Yankees.  The price has dropped slightly and they are the most engaged with Oakland.  Meanwhile, it’s apparently to the point that Gray will not start for Oakland Sunday as originally scheduled.

ALSO:  Darvish to Dodgers is looking more likely as well.

Next: Go Figure!

It’s quiet out there… at least for Atlanta.  Monday could be anything from ‘nothing’ to spectacular.