The trade that would send Jaime Garcia to the Twins is still either in discussions or dead, depending on who you listen to. But we now know why the original deal was scuttled.
The story about the trade between the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins for Jaime Garcia came down to this:
Source: RHP Nick Burdi was prospect going from #Twins to #Braves in Garcia deal before talks stalled. Underwent Tommy John surgery in May.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 22, 2017
Sure: the Braves knew about the surgery. But they also know about Burdi’s potential.
He was a 2nd round pick of the Twins in 2014 (46th overall) out of Louisville, described as a “lights out” closer then. Upper 90’s fastball. A Kimbrel-like slider… and a changeup. A brutal arsenal.
Burdi started 2017 on fire in AA – 17 innings with 4 walks, 20 strikeouts, a 0.53 ERA and 0.76 WHIP… and then blew out his elbow in May.
It had to be something in his newest medical report that made the Braves leery – even more than the TJ surgery. Perhaps he is already being behind on rehab or perhaps some other anomaly – possibly unrelated to the elbow surgery. This part is unknown.
Now recognize that relievers are naturally downgraded in prospect rankings due to their role. Closers will buck that trend somewhat, but it varies from one evaluator to another.
MLB Pipeline has Burdi currently at #17 among Twins’ prospects. John Sickels at minorleagueball.com had him at 12. Others put him lower.
Roll the Dice or No?
The trick is that Burdi is already 24, and could miss not only the rest of 2017 but most of 2018. That puts him maybe being ready for the majors in the 2019 season as a 26-year-old… if all goes well.
Given a perfect rehab period, the Braves might be willing to take on that risk for what Burdi could provide. But if not… they’d essentially have nothing for Jaime Garcia.
Given that pitchers – especially prospect pitchers – are a natural risk anyway, it would seem prudent to try another direction.
This is unfortunate, but then the latest reports suggest that even more teams are haggling over Garcia’s services now:
Looks like J Garcia's strong outing vs the Dodgers has piqued interest. As many as 8 teams talking to Braves, some more intense than others.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 22, 2017
Given the time elapsed since the original reports surface on Thursday afternoon, I would call the chances that the Twins come through with a deal as “minimal”. Both sides have had amble time to figure on acceptable alternatives, and since that hasn’t been announced, this partnership may be on life support.
So… Moving on?
Letting Garcia start against the NL's best-hitting team vs LHP was a huge gamble for Atlanta. Looks like it will pay off given his outing.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 22, 2017
But others are certainly still involved now… and the odds of Garcia making yet another nail-biting start for the Braves are close to zero.
Next: Thoughts on Garcia's Career Game
So set your expectations on a return to someone roughly equivalent to Burdi.