Braves General Manager John Coppolella has previously indicated that his team would be involved in both ‘buying and selling’ this Summer. It’s time to roll out the first rumor.
So as far as Atlanta Braves‘ trade rumors go, this one probably can be rated at a ‘3’ on a scale of 1 to 10:
- It’s from a source in a position to know
- the fit is quite plausible for Atlanta
- the rest of the teams mentioned are also quite plausible
Here’s the report, quoting directly from A’s beat writer Susan Slusser:
"Scouting Gray: Among the clubs with multiple executives and scouts at Gray’s start Sunday: the Cubs, the Blue Jays, the Mariners and the Braves, while the Red Sox had one scout there. Some non-contenders looking ahead to next year have interest in Gray because he has two more years of team control.Some of the teams in attendance also are scouting infielder Jed Lowrie, who is all but assured to be dealt before the July 31 deadline; Boston, Lowrie’s first big-league team, is a club that is likely to have interest."
Twenty-seven year old Sonny Gray also happens to hail from Nashville, Tennessee and grew up just to its southeast in Smyrna.
You might recognize a couple of other pitching names from the same area: David Price (right next door in Murfreesboro), Mike Minor (Chapel Hill – 15 miles away), and R.A. Dickey (also born in Nashville).
But the important bit is that Sonny Gray is available. Make no mistake: this volume of scouts would not be congregating at Guar-on-teed Rate Park in Chicago unless the Oakland A’s had made it clear that they are ready to trade Sonny Gray for the right price.
The Numbers
A’s GM Billy Beane was probably doing a season-long face palm on himself in 2016 as Gray ran into injury issues en route to doubling his 2015 ERA – going from 2.73 then to 5.69 in half as many innings last year.
It was the first real problem year for the right-hander, who even now still sports a career ERA of 3.52.
This season has seen Gray get off to decent start, but still kind of “uneven”. His ERA sits at 4.45, but he did get through the Sunday Audition with 1 earned run (2 allowed) through 7 innings.
One warning sign involves damage control: Gray’s Batting Average Against numbers escalate a lot with runners on base and in ‘higher leverage’ situations:
- Bases Empty: .243
- Not Empty: .275
- RISP: .303
- Low Leverage: .178
- Med Leverage: .289
- High Leverage: .440
440 should be a musical tuning frequency – not a batting average appearing in a pitcher’s stats.
Gray’s K-rate is actually up for the year compared to the past 3 seasons, and his walk rate is about the same. He’s keeping the ball in the park well enough, but hitters seem to be squaring him up more than usual (the BABIP is elevated).
Gray appears to be healthy: his fastball velocity is dead-on where it has been historically (93.4 mph vs. 93.0 for his career, but the change in measurement methodology adds about a half-mile per hour). He’s now at 65 innings over 11 starts with no starts missed.
Why Now?
Beane certainly doesn’t want to see a repeat of last year, and while Gray still isn’t back to his near-Cy-Young performance of 2015, he figures that Gray has showed enough now to allow him to go ahead and make the best deal he can.
That’s particular true with his A’s at 34-42 and well behind in the AL West (despite sweeping the White Sox this past weekend).
In Beane’s favor is that Gray (a client of Platinum Sports) is still making just $3.575 million with 2 more arbitration years remaining… thus he’s under team control through the 2019 season.
There’s also the competition for pitching resources…
Chris Archer doesn’t look to be dealt until perhaps the upcoming off-season since his Rays are definitely in the AL playoff hunt. Jose Quintana is struggling a bit worse than Gray, and even the Braves’ Jaime Garcia has experienced back-to-back poor outings.
In short, there’s a lot of team in need; few willing to sell.
The Braves are likely figuring that Gray – even with a few flaws – could benefit from coming to the National League and from getting close to home.
The idea of adding his arm to a group of youngsters coming up through the system to help anchor the Braves’ rotation for at least a couple of years has to be appealing as well.
Besides – if they don’t at least kick the tires now, he’ll be locked up on another club until at least the point in which Gray’s free agency years start.
And who knows? Adding a starter like Gray and a hitter like Freddie Freeman at the trade deadline could actually put the Braves into the Wild Card conversation down the stretch – should Colorado or Arizona falter. A reach, perhaps, but aside from the NL West, few teams are stepping up to take charge.
The First Flirtations
More from Tomahawk Take
- Atlanta Braves 2023 Preseason Top 30 Prospects List: 1-5
- Braves News: Braves acquire Diaz, moves around the division, more
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Top Prospects Review: J.R. Graham
- Atlanta Braves Acquire Lewin Diaz from the Orioles
- Atlanta Braves 2023 Preseason Top 30 Prospects List: 6-10
Coppolella has made no secret of coveting the services of Chris Archer, but Gray’s name has been mentioned as well, so it’s reasonable to guess that Atlanta would be in the thick of the bidding with Oakland when the time comes.
When will that time come?
Well, Coppy hasn’t been known for stalling on deals, and Billy Beane seems like he’s never seen a prospect that he didn’t like, so stay tuned.
All that said, rumors are… fleeting. This being the very first one linking the Braves to a specific player and team, you can expect to catch a lot more chatter before the first deals are actually made.
Next: Let Me Count the Prospects!
So buckle up, my friends.