5 buy low trade targets for the Atlanta Braves
I love buying low. You probably like buying low too. It’s fun. It’s low risk. And often there’s a chance for high reward. The Atlanta Braves also like buying low and I want them to do more of it.
In the off-season, Atlanta Braves GM John Coppolella pulled off a couple buy low moves that, so far, have worked out tremendously.
Alex Jackson was struggling in a major way in the Seattle Mariners system and Coppy saw a chance to take advantage. Couple of low ceiling arms later and Atlanta now has a supremely talented former first round bat destroying the ball in High A.
Brandon Phillips was a man without a role in Cincinnati but also had a no-trade clause that made him almost impossible to move. But he wanted to come to Atlanta, his home town, and again Coppy took advantage of a situation to add a quality player for almost no cost.
These are fun.
So fun in fact that I came up with 5 more opportunities the Braves might have to add a high level/upside player whose value has dropped for one reason or another.
The Rules:
- I’m looking specifically at position players. After Ozzie Albies, the number of high-level position in the upper minors is thin. There are a couple guys who are interesting but Atlanta simply needs a larger supply.
- Part of buying low is convincing the other guy to sell low. And that’s not always easy. Because of this I’m looking at guys who are in franchises that look to be contending this year. A great way to convince a team to sell low on a future piece is to offer something that helps them win now. Low-risk present value can often net you high ceiling future value. See the Alex Jackson trade.
- Remember these are buy-low guys for reason. They’ve had bad year(s) or injuries or something that has hurt their trade value and can potentially be had at reduced cost. So please don’t respond with statements like “why would we want that guy, his numbers suck” or some version of it. If you don’t understand the buy-low concept then just move along without comment.
- These isn’t a ranking, just a list. Just because a guy is at 1 or 2 doesn’t mean I want him or value him more than the guys at 4 or 5.
Okay – to the list!
Ryan McMahon 3B (AA) Rockies
Ryan has spent his fair share of time on top prospect list the last few years and came into 2016 as one of Colorado’s top prospects. And while 2016 wasn’t a bad year for him, it was a decline in production from his previous production.
His wRC+ in 2013 was 147, in 2014 it was 137, and in 2015 it was 141. But in 2016 it dropped down to 101 as both his power output and OBP took a hit. Combine that drop in production with a rising K rate and questions about his defense and you can see why his overall value went down.
The upside is just as compelling though. He has a beautiful left-handed swing and Fangraphs just put a 60 on his raw power. He also gotten off to a much better start in 2017 which should mitigate some of the worry about last year.
In terms of availability, there’s this guy named Nolan Arenado blocking him at 3B and the Rockies hot start may lead them to trade some future value for present day help. Maybe an opportunity there.
Billy McKinney OF (AA) Yankees
McKinney is a guy I’ve personally been following for a while for reasons I can’t really explain. I’ve just always liked him. His big claim to fame is being a former 1st round pick by the Oakland A’s and being the other piece to go to Chicago in the Addison Russell/Jeff Samardzija trade.
The Cubs sent him to NY in the Aroldis Chapman trade last July and he really just hasn’t hit. The 92 wRC+ he posted last year wasn’t terrible but there just wasn’t much power there for a guy who projects to be a corner OF.
Eric Longenhagen still has 50 raw power grade on him though and the contact numbers are good enough to think there is still value there. The Yankees might need an upgrade later this year with their pitching staff and Mckinney is a guy I would love to take a chance on.
Jurickson Profar UTIL (MLB) Rangers
So this is the one everyone is talking about. Profar has the highest prospect pedigree of any guy on this list simply because none of the other guys have ever been the #1 prospect baseball.
The biggest problem Jurickson has had is not being able to hit MLB pitching. He hit, and hit impressively, at every level of the minors which combined with his positional versatility vaulted him up prospect rankings.
But all that talent hasn’t transferred to major-league success yet as he posted a 78 wRC+ last year for the Rangers and has seen his value plummet. His also been around so long that you get the sense Texas might just be ready to move on. Familiarity does breed content.
The upside for Profar is he just turned 24, a full year younger than Aaron Judge, and still has all that talent in there somewhere. Who knows, maybe a change in scenery or a different voice coaching him can unlock that superstar potential.
The other part, of course, is the Rangers are very much in contention in 2017 and may be willing to finally cut bait on Profar in exchange for help to their big-league club.
J.D. Davis 3B/LF (AA) Astros
J.D. makes this list, not because of performance issues he’s had, but because his organization has seemed to sour on him a bit. Davis crushed AA pitching last year to the tune of a 134 wRC+ and the Astros were so impressed they sent him right back to AA this year. At 24-years old.
Part of the reason obviously could be there’s zero room for him in Houston’s future plans with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman set to man the left side of their infield for the next decade plus. But you would think such a strong showing in AA last year would have at least warranted a AAA assignment.
He killed the ball in Spring Training this year while several of his teammates were participating in the World Baseball Classic. Davis hit a team high .365 for Houston and even that didn’t get him a bump to AAA.
So I don’t know what Houston’s deal is. Davis, admittedly, isn’t much of a 3B with a strong throwing arm being his best defensive attribute but he hits the absolute crap out of the ball and Atlanta could use a little more of that. And, again, Houston will be in contention in 2017 so the possibility is there.
Kaleb Cowart 3B/OF (AAA) Angels
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Cowart rounds out our list with an interesting combination of drop in performance and lack of opportunity. He’s a former 1st round pick that held his own at every level of the minors, but like so many others, hasn’t seen the MLB success.
His contact numbers in the minors have always teetered on the edge of worrisome so the fact that he’s struggled so much in the majors really isn’t a shock.
The Angels didn’t have much faith in him in the off-season as they went and signed Luis Valbuena to pair along with veteran Yunel Escobar. And honestly that makes sense for them. With Mike Trout and Albert Pujols around, they are absolutely a win now team and trusting the hot corner to a young, unproven commodity didn’t sit well with them.
The Braves, of course, do have the luxury of allowing a younger player to develop and could use LA’s desperation to win now with Trout as an opportunity to acquire a nice piece.
Summary
I think Atlanta is going to have to get creative to fill some of the void in their upper minor position players. They have guys in A ball that could become solid MLB contributors but I don’t think they want to wait 4 or 5 years before they contend again.
Maybe Coppy can get work his magic. Again.